[VFM] Mountainous Arson - (12/15) - Completed - Town Wins

[Maxwell]

eh fine for now
/unvote
/vote Shurian

[Alice]

@Arete

Thinking Maxwell is right here, I looked through Alice’s Iso and there’s a few things there that stood out to me as particularly wolfy. I haven’t seen the Color Game, so this is just based on her Iso here rather than meta.

Relevant Alice Posts

Monokuma:

Icibalus:

#453 is an Icibalus post.

Icibalus’ logic in #458 does look villagery but I disagree and think it’s pretty NAI for them.

#471 is just an eww post considering that there’s really no need to sort out a thread-spewed villager here.

Gutreading Ici as a villager in #480 but I just can’t help but facepalm at his interactions with Vulgard.

#814 is extremely off as well. He does have progression leading up to the vote, but so far I’m hating his narrow look into the game and the friendliness between him and Geyde.

#909 the more Ici posts the more I want to lynch him. Like, his biggest foci this match have been that the thread-spewed villager is a villager and that Vulgard is a wolf.

This is the post I was looking at earlier and thinking was indicative of wolf theater given Ici’s flip as she never follows up or pressures Ici after making this read, nor interacts with him at all – she talks about how much she “wants to lynch” him but then mostly only interacts with Geyde.

Monokuma:

Ici/Kyo/Jake makes a realistic wolfteam, though.

Here she again states that an Ici wolfteam is plausible but once again she never pressures Ici nor interacts with him at all.

Monokuma:

I didn’t interact afterwards as I was busy, FTR.

The game shouldn’t be too hard after Ici’s flip as his spew alongside my towncore should easily win it via PoE.

Monokuma:

So basically, pretty sure that I’m locking in Maxi/Vul both as town from Ici.

Quite sure you’re also V being that Ici’s attitude towards you was obviously W/V and that you led the lynch on him.

Monokuma:

Basically my clears so far:

Based on thought process/general villageryness.

Arete
Hjasik
Kai_5
Marshall

Based on Ici spew

Geyde
Vulgard
Maxi

Remainder

KyoDaz
Shurian
eevee
JakeTheWolfie
sulit
Magnus

Since I have spare time I’ll solve the bottom 6 rn.

Quoting this here mostly for comparison with a later readlist.

Monokuma:

Skeptical towards this clear, tbh. Wolves often self-pres onto other wolves and his posting style feels a lot like newbscum to me.

Kind of feeling a lack of village motivation in this read on Jake, to be honest. Given the position wolves are in after Ici’s flip they’re basically forced to destroy the towncore as otherwise they just straight-up lose through sheer PoE and Ici’s spew (more notably the parts of the spew before the self-pres, to be honest) pretty clearly spews Jake as V. I could kind of see not wanting to 100 percent townlock him off of that but this read just feels like she needs to keep someone out of the towncore and went with the one she could come up with the most plausible argument for.

Monokuma:

No, my Sulit/Ici read isn’t TMI, it’s ruling out potentially packmates and I’ve done this analysis with pretty much all players here. Ici’s the kind of player who tries to badly powerwolf the town and so he ends up doing a bunch of blatantly spew-y so his spew is very visible.

The fact that she immediately jumps to that particular accusation rather than any of the other reasons people had for scumreading her kind of feels like TMI about her TMI, to be honest – like, she recognizes that she did actually have TMI there, and so that stands out to her as a more “legitimate” accusation that she needs to defend herself from.

Monokuma:

This post is actually stupidly wolfy if Shurian’s a level 1 wolf, though.

There’s basically no real reads being done here and it’s purely IIoA with a joke vote at the end. It’s basically a wall of nothing similar to what Dat and Sulit do as scum.

This post is fine on its own but see below.

Monokuma:

Village

Vulgard
Hjasik
MaximusPrime
Kai
Sulit

Maxwell
Geyde
Arete

Eevee
Magnus

Jakethewolfie
KyoDaz
Shurian

Wolf

Still not liking her insistence on scumreading Jake here.

Also, her read on Sulit changed drastically and she doesn’t really explain why – she’s part of my towncore too, but it’s weird how she jumps so much from earlier.

Monokuma:

Were I a wolf here with Ici the moment I noticed him blatantly TMI’ing Geyde I’d have immediately voted him as well to stake my claim on his pelt. I interact a lot with my wolfbuddies as I know that lack of interaction with flipped wolves is wolfy, here I just had no interactions with Ici due to lack of time. See how in Color Wheel I repeatedly defended Pawn Lelouche while pushing and pressuring Duskfall despite the fact that we had V/V wagons on the line.

Monokuma:

Point is, if you’re trying to meta-read me here then it’s pretty obvious that I’m town as I’m basically laid back and making reads rather than trying to push lynches.

This is a weird assertion in conjunction with the vote/push on Shurian – like, she clearly is trying to push a lynch here.

/unvote
/vote Alice

@DatBird

Jake is not fucking towncore material as Ici and him had to self-pres onto themselves for each other to live.

[Maxwell]

actually /unvote for now

[Alice]

https://forum.imperium42.com/t/vfm-mountainous-arson-14-15-day-2-a-quiet-night/78852/2354?u=monokuma

Post #2354. This is basically the first time that Ici voted Jake with no previous mention of each other. Ici effectively HAD to self-pres onto a player in order for them to have a chance to survive. Ici was very likely to die here so either way if the CFD were successful or not then he’d either successfully anti-spew Jake as town or Jake would be lynched and he would net towncred for his bus.

He couldn’t self-pres onto much of Shurian/Magnus/Maxi as there was no steam behind them. Geyde, maybe. Arete was basically a vanity wagon by Eevee

https://forum.imperium42.com/t/vfm-mountainous-arson-14-15-day-2-a-quiet-night/78852/2498?u=monokuma

Jake’s first actual interaction with Ici’s content was in post #2498. Like, Jake has posted before that his top scumreads were Geyde/Vulgard/Eevee and then there’s this sudden shift where he begins scumreading Ici without caring about the previous three in either way.

https://forum.imperium42.com/t/vfm-mountainous-arson-14-15-day-2-a-quiet-night/78852/2502?u=monokuma

Post #2502. He was in the thread and he effectively had to vote for Ici in order to prevent the CFD from going back to him and it was very likely that Ici was going to be the lynch here. There’s basically no form of leading up to Jake’s vote here outside from this ISO.

Like, come on. This is extremely likely to be Jake TMI’ing Ici as a wolf being that Ici was completely out of Jake’s radar and then suddenly when the Ici wagon was picking up steam Jake suddenly writes up an ISO with full confidence on why Ici is as wolf and then votes him.

@Maxwell

The exact same shit happened in that Euro-friendly Champs game on MU where we all locked Knee and fresh as villagers until when we decided to re-evaluate and then I managed to create a game-winning PoE for us to win.

[Alice]

@Arete

This is the post I was looking at earlier and thinking was indicative of wolf theater given Ici’s flip as she never follows up or pressures Ici after making this read, nor interacts with him at all – she talks about how much she “wants to lynch” him but then mostly only interacts with Geyde.

I. Was. Busy. So. I. Could. Not. Push. Wagons.

@Arete

Here she again states that an Ici wolfteam is plausible but once again she never pressures Ici nor interacts with him at all.

Read fucking above.

@Arete

Kind of feeling a lack of village motivation in this read on Jake, to be honest. Given the position wolves are in after Ici’s flip they’re basically forced to destroy the towncore as otherwise they just straight-up lose through sheer PoE and Ici’s spew (more notably the parts of the spew before the self-pres, to be honest) pretty clearly spews Jake as V. I could kind of see not wanting to 100 percent townlock him off of that but this read just feels like she needs to keep someone out of the towncore and went with the one she could come up with the most plausible argument for.

See my previous post. Jake/Ici interaction has no follow-up at all and it basically goes from 0 to both parties being absolutely sure each other are wolves and cross-voting. There’s no fucking progression here.

@Arete

This post is fine on its own but see below.

@Arete

Still not liking her insistence on scumreading Jake here.

Also, her read on Sulit changed drastically and she doesn’t really explain why – she’s part of my towncore too, but it’s weird how she jumps so much from earlier.

I mentioned Sulit as Sulit in PyMM, not Sulit here. She’s pretty villagery here. I put her in the remainder befored as I then re-ISO’d Ici.

Second one’s because unlike most people here I can actually spot when interactions are W/W versus W/V or V/V and when they are not rather than flip a coin and base my read on that, tyvm. </endsass>

Point is, W/W interactions are less natural and gradual and more spontaneously. Ici/Jake being W/W is very probably here being that their only interaction d1 was each making a single post ISO’ing each other and cross-voting.

@Arete

This is a weird assertion in conjunction with the vote/push on Shurian – like, she clearly is trying to push a lynch here.

Because ATP I’m pretty sure that there’s 1-2 wolves in Shurian/Jake as re-reading Kyo he unfortunately has a chance of flipping town as what happened in Clash of Cults?

[DatBird]

Vote Count:

Accused	Voters	Count
KyoDaz	Kai_5, Magnus	2/8
Magnus	Shurian, Vulgard, Sulit	3/8
Shurian	Alice	1/8
Alice	Arete, Geyde	2/8
Geyde	Eevee	1/8

@ me if I missed any

last one for the night for me. Goodnight yall

[Alice]

@Arete

Still not liking her insistence on scumreading Jake here.

Also, posts like this peeve the everliving shit out of me.

Every damn time I see someone making a read on me by this basis it ends up being that.

A) I’m correct with my read on a player. See how Hippo was scumreading me for correctly townreading Maxi.

B) They end up being a villager scumreading me for making a correct read as per A.

C) Rather than read my thought process they read me for agreeing/disagreeing with them, which is stupid as they usuaully are wrong as per A.

These reads should stop because.

A) Disagreements on reads don’t mean jack shit. Two villagers can have diametrically opposite reads due to different levels of skill and methodology used. Mindmelding means that both you and the other player are probably both the same alignment, but the inverse does not hold true.

B) It is an objective and indisputable fact that I’m the most accurate reader on this site. The fact that if I have different reads than you and you’re a villager means that you’re probably just wrong and need to git gud, as Vulgard and Hippo can attest. </sass>

[Alice]

Bookmarking this for post-game so I can rub it in Arete’s face.

[Arete]

[Alice]

Toning down my sass and cattiness for now, though.

[Alice]

Point is, the lack of gradual progression and follow-up in Jake/Ici’s interactions make Jake’s earlier posts look worse for me, not better.

[Alice]

@Geyde
@Vulgard
@eevee

Mind reading my post regarding the progression between Jake/Ici?

Like, so far out of my PoE Jake’s effectively the one most likely to end up incorrectly towncored by people due to Ici’s last-minute vote on them despite the fact that double-bussing is very possible from how their interactions developed.

This basically my main worry ATP.

[Alice]

/vote Jakethewolfie

I don’t ever see Shurian/Kyo end-gaming in the current game-state, tbh. So the only potential chance of the wolves winning here would be via Jake.

[Emilia]

meh

[Alice]

@DatBird

Accused	Voters	Count
KyoDaz	Kai_5, Magnus	2/8
Magnus	Shurian, Vulgard, Sulit	3/8
Shurian	Alice	1/8
Alice	Arete, Geyde	2/8
Geyde	Eevee	1/8

We have Magnus voting Kyo and Shurian voting Magnus.

Like, I don’t think Magnus has a decent chance of flipping scum here considering how he’s interacting with the remainder of the PoE.

[Emilia]

I dont really see jake being more W than other wagons

[Magnus]

Bussing wolves is a strategy for collecting towncred.

[Alice]

You don’t bus right after a wolf is lynched d1, though.

[Alice]

@vulgard
@sulit

Mind swapping off Magnus? He’s basically either voting or being voted with much of the rest of the PoE rn.

[Alice]

Like, c’mon. This was my read-list just from a preliminary glance at the thread. Top 5 now became members of the towncore with Ici’s flip in mind and I even posted how we should clear Sulit in the case Ici flips W. and I’m pretty sure Magnus is a villager from how they’re interacting with the rest of the PoE. Only misread so far was Geyde.

Hjasik
Vulgard
Arete
Kai_5

MaximusPrime
Magnus
Shurian

Sulit
Marshall

Eevee
Icibalus

KyoDaz
Geyde
Jakethewolfie