Meh I guess but looking at VCA in isolation is unlikely to net much reward compared to looking at everything combined in my opinion.
The wolf poisoner is still alive. This isnāt MyLo. Itās LyLo if Sulit is town. We canāt afford to NL or lynch a poisoned player.
So hereās who weāll have at the end of the day considering that Sulit isnāt acting as a poisoned wolf and Iām town.
Emilia
Arete
Marshall
Crich
Derps
Hippo
If we no lynch or lynch me, then weāll be at 4-2 at the EoD. 1 will be NKād, 1 will be poisoned. After then itāll be 3-2 with one dying at the EoD, and even if we lynch a wolf, going into the night weāll go 3-1, with one dying to the poison and the other dying to the NK. Weāll end up losing as theyāll be able to reach parity just with the KPN alone.
If we lynch today and hit the poisoner then weāll end up with 3-1 tomorrow, NL, and then F3 LyLo. If we lynch today and hit the rolecop then weāll be 3-1 tomorrow with 1 dying at the EoD, which would be F4 LyLo.
Wolves will be able to poison an additional player overnight, and theyāll die at the EoD tomorrow, so at the EoD tomorrow in this scenario itāll be 2-1 if we lynch a wolf. With the NK and then theyāll achieve parity.
Statistically thereās a 50-50 chance that the backup poisoner is dead. Neither Sulit or I are the poisoner as weād have outed it by now. So it must be within either the 4 non-poisoned villagers alive, or in either Italy, Squid, Vulgard, N.1.
the backup poisoner is not dead
I acknowledge that claiming here is a really bad play but I kind of already slipped it, so
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Plus Iād imagine that this should lock you town beyond all belief as a wolf wouldnāt have done something so risky as this may have gotten you CCād.
Arete/Marshall/Emilia/Derps/Richard/Hippo will be the remaining players.
You will prolly get NKād and Marshall will probably get poisoned, so
Which means that in the end weāll have to find the 2 wolves in Emilia/Derps/Hippo/Richard.
Who are you planning to poison here?
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VCA-wise Iām pretty sure Marshall is clear.
Emilia is also very solid here considering that they wouldnāt have killed Vulgard and the volume of their posts have been pretty steady.
So rn itās basically find the villager in Derps/Hippo/Richard and you should be good.
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the problem Iām having right now is like
everyone has done something villagery
Hippo is probably the one Iām least confident on?
why did I have to rand backup poisoner, apart from Amelia my reads this game havenāt been particularly good
Same here. Vulgard basically was killed right when he started suspecting Hippo D2 AFAIK.
I think VCA-wise this points to Hippo/CRich being that Hippo as well as Eevee was pushing Derps. But the issue here is that CRich was also pushing VCA hard which would have gotten Hippo to get killed.
Hmmmā¦ has CRich ever pushed Hippo?
heās treating Italy and Hippo almost the exact same way which feels kind of weird if heās a wolf partnered with Hippo (given Italy being a villager)
He hasnāt really pushed that hard on Hippo. He wasnāt casing him or advocating for his lynch. He basically started out by pushing for Hippo then swapped to Hippo/Italy, then allowed Italy to be lynched.
Though. The issue here is would scum seriously bus this hard? Both the goons are dead so weāre basically thinking of a world where the Poisoner and RC are pushing each other. I think this makes Derps look better as if both Hippo and Eevee were really pushing him early and Hippo is a wolf then this would mean that the wolves may be pushing their own RC/ or Poisoner, which makes no sense.
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