[VFM] Town vs Bandits - Day 5 (4/13) - Bandits Win!

just noting this post so that i can see if WWA followed up with the claim that she’ll give her reads in a “bit”

i…maybe like alice trying to break up the fight between artic/GGhana? their argument was definitely advantageous to the wolves, and alice doesn’t strike me as the type of wolf to downplay conflict between two villagers. (and i doubt that an alice/artic or alice/gghana team is a reality)

how? he could naturally express that confidence as either alignment because vulgard has already flipped

but rubbing it in our faces does improve his position in the thread - it acts as an easy way for him to get credibility without having to draw too much attention to himself. “i told you my reads were right!” is a super common line and i disagree p strongly that it’s alignment indicative for will

any immediate guesses for who that might be? this is a spicy read, but i want you to follow up on it

oh okay, turns out you did follow up a few posts later lol. i would have agreed that GG would be TMI’ing will as a villager as a wolf, but i think the way GG shifted his positioning coming into today (saying that will might be a wolf) is indicative of a lack of TMI on his alignment

i dont love that will’s primary focus so far today is the exact same focus he had on d1 (emilia wolf). i dont think it’s impossible for a villager to have a one-track-mindset like this, but he seems almost desperate to discredit emilia here and make her look bad in a way that feels distinctly agenda-y to me

meh im starting to get worried that youre wolfing lol, i disagree with almost all of this post

not that disagreement makes you inherently wolfy, i just don’t know how you get: “WWA/SPF are wolves” from the read of: “the threadstate is villagers slapping each other with wet noodles”. WWA is one of the names that i actively started a wagon on on d1, and she almost went over. wouldn’t she be included in the list of people that were getting “slapped”?

their interactions made me feel more comfortable with townreading both of them, but i definitely didn’t pick up on the ~PR softing~ thing at all

this is definitely not true TBH - i noticed that chloe very strongly overemphasized her townread on GGhana, but she was far from the first person that has very confidently outed a village read early in the game

a couple of things:

  1. i actually townread chloe pretty comfortably the longer and longer that d1 went on, and i said that i thought she was probably just a villager toward the EOD. so, even in a world where i was a wolf, i don’t know that i would be “setting up to push on chloe after vulgard flipped”, but i can see how you might get that impression from my early posts where i was more actively suspicious of her

  2. it might be more accurate to say that i felt like the thread was keeping me at arms length. i really struggled to get my head into this game throughout most of d1, because there was so much Going On and the formatting of this forum doesn’t lend super well to the type of scumhunting that i usually do in this type of threadstate. i was playing the game but i wasn’t really ~Feeling It~ until the last ~12 hours of the day, and what you perceived as me being “curt” was likely just me asking pointed questions to try to get a better hold on the game

  3. sometimes you just Feel that there’s a wolf within a certain pool of names based on the threadstate. i don’t really know how to explain it further than that, but it wouldn’t surprise me if my original read that the pool of emilia/will/WWA contains one wolf is right. if it does contain multiple wolves, then it would have to be WWA/X since i don’t think emilia/will are likely to be teamed. we could live in a world where all three of those names are villagers but there are so many villagery names that i find it unlikely

  4. i was eager to interact with ghana/will on saturday night, and then i interacted with them, got what i wanted, and moved on to the interactions that were more interesting to me at the time :stuck_out_tongue: you are right that i didn’t out my read on will/GGhana very clearly though - that was one of those progressions that was a bit more silent/internal

  5. i’m amused by your description of me treating the rest of the game as “specimens” - i think that you’re hitting at something accurate, because i do tend to play in a pretty clinical/“objective” way, especially when i feel a bit out of place in the thread.

in this specific case, i’ve been focusing on making clinical observations about the rest of the thread because i perceive that to be the best way i can help the thread. there are so many arguments in this game that get bogged down in meta, and i am in the unique position of being able to look at these interactions without knowing or caring about the meta behind them. that let me see that vulgard was likely to be a villager when others weren’t able to, and it will hopefully give me more accurate reads overall

i like the depth of thought and the analysis that you’re giving here, but i would like it a lot more if it came with a conclusion

i think eli’s progression on chloe on d1 was actually pretty villagery - he went out of his way to defend her when the rest of the thread was wolfreading her, and then went out of his way to wolfread her when the rest of the thread was townreading her. if he was focused on getting towncred from chloe flipping town, then i dont think he would have changed his mind on her at the last second. the progression is messy in a way that lacks a clear agenda

well, he said a little while ago that he does have a lot of experience with ToS (and some other site) - does the fact that he is experienced with mafia (even if not forum mafia) change your read on him at all? does it make him wolfier?

if you and alice both feel confident about emilia being a villager then i’ll probably just sponge it. i think her posts are fine - the best thing i can say about them is that she feels comfortable in the thread, and she showed a lack of self-preservation mindset at the EOD yesterday

current assessment of the threadstate is that there’s a wolf or two in windwardaway/will/proph* and then some deepwolf(ves) somewhere else. working on it

*i haven’t really done my due diligence on proph and i have liked the depth of thought in his posts today - he’s still at the lower end of my POE because of how much i dislike his push on vulgard yesterday in retrospect. proph’s progression on vulgard felt rigid in a way that actually reminds me of will’s progression on emilia, and i need to see more flexibility from him today in general to get to a place where i would townread him

i’m caught up now ig

ask me anything!

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massping

@Alice
@Leafia
@willtaylor
@Marluxion
@staypositivefriend
@WindwardAway
@Arctic
@GGhana
@EliThePsycho
@Prophylaxis
@Emilia

Just pointing out what I see :sunglasses:

oh my god