I have to admit that I kind of overstated my townread on Arctic earlier on in my big wallpost because I thought he was the JKer
I read spf’s posts and she latched onto Arctic town early and quickly
I still think he might be a villager but I’m re-evaluating and considering all worlds
Is there a reason why you’re trusting in Marl’s Arctic read when /you/ were his primary suspect?
Looking back on his posts, he was pretty sold on a Leafia/Arctic team.
Talk to me about this? Why do you think her play here makes very little sense if she’s a wolf? Why do you think she’s a villager?
I can’t see an Emilia/Arctic world honestly, especially with how today has gone. I feel if it was an Arctic/Emilia w/w world, Emilia would’ve just snap voted Arctic here to make Arctic look better when she flips wolf. She being Emilia.
[quote=“sulit, post:3962, topic:89035”]
He later corrected it and said that was his towncore not inner PoE.
Not really. I’m mostly going by a combination of a gut feeling and Alice’s read on him to be honest. He just feels villagery to me. The problem is that every living player is feeling at least a bit villagery right now, so I’m not sure how much stock I should put into Alice’s read on him. Although Alice was the one most certain that Arctic is a villager and I’m pretty sure she would’ve been able to convince a v!Emilia of Arctic being a villager so I feel in w!Arctic worlds, my death last night would’ve made more sense.
Solely because he’s a flipped villager that was considering the possibility of Arctic being a wolf and he’s a strong player when he doesn’t get into those tunnels of his.
@Arctic are you comfortable with putting this much stock into wisp spew when he very likely imo either went into antispew on day 3, or has been in antispew since he replaced in?
especially when a couple of your initial conclusions have been like “I think wisp was talking to two villagers with gghana and proph” and “leafia looks pretty unpartnered with wisp”
in retrospect I should have buried wisp for suggesting that his own slot was bad
talk to me about this - specifically the part about me having the least villagery posts. i won’t deny that i’ve been playing pretty poorly this game, but i feel like you’ve barely interacted with me over the past couple of game Days
i feel like your progression on me has been pretty weird all game? like looking at your post here with wisp and with your windward spew analysis, it feels like you’ve been trying to read /around/ me rather than actually /read/ me
Because if she’s a wolf, she’s literally pushing on the villageriest looking person in the game in LyLo. I don’t feel a wolf would ever do that honestly. They tend to go for the LHF in LyLo.
but she’s been building up to this since day 3
and who right now is LHF? no one alive right now is LHF imo
So? That doesn’t mean she’s a wolf and literally anyone besides Arctic and me would be very easy for a wolf Emilia to push.
wtf is wolf!sulit’s motivation here to:
i feel like sulit is very genuinely trying to evaluate me and my alignment here
i agree that it doesn’t mean that she’s a wolf - all i’m saying is that this has been her viewpoint since day 3.
i need to evaluate her progression on arctic and what the ramifications of that are (ie, what does it mean for her alignment and what does it mean for arctic’s)
you do raise a good point though. if emilia is a wolf, why is she not pushing on me much more actively? she hasn’t really interacted or talked with me much this game
alright, let me look at these votals
not exactly sure how helpful this will be but let’s give it a shot
I think today has been very illuminating so far. Here’s where I stand so far from least likely to be a wolf to most likely to be a wolf.
Leafia: The only slot I’m 100% certain is town.
Arctic: While his interaction with Emilia made me seriously consider him being a wolf with how wolfy sounding he was, his attempt pl ts to solve after that just feel really genuine, moving him back up again.
Emilia: At least somewhat confident this is a villager, but has serious wolf equity with Proph with how both of them seem to be shading Arctic, but that might be just paranoia on my part.
Sulit: Sounded very wolfy at the start of the day but she has improved a bit since then. I’ve also been scumreading her slot for quite a while and can’t really see why so many people are convinced she’s a villager here, although I do think there’s a chance of her being a villager.
Proph: I’ve been pretty sure that Proph was a villager for most of the game honestly, but with how today has gone so far, I’m beginning to see why he’s been scumread so heavily. His solving today just feels like unnecessary shade on Arctic and it feels like he’s just trying to get Arctic out of the consensus towncore and the attempt feels like a wolfy one if you ask me.
The way I see it, the last two wolves are likely either Proph/Sulit or Proph/Emilia.
Alright, let’s get into this.
Votal analysis
Game starts off kind of slowly with Chloe and I kind of vanity-wagonning Vulgard until the first real wagon of the game crops up (on a wolf!)
Worth noting that Alice, SPF, and Chloe all voted Windward in very quick succession, and they were all villagers. Seeing as the wolves all NK’d them my gut tells me that the wolves weren’t very keen on bussing Windward and that wolves were spooked at the Alice/SPF/Chloe towncore latching onto Windward that early.
Emilia actually votes a little while after this (she sees the previous votecount and then switches off from her vanity/joke vote on SPF to Windward). Given that the Windward wagon didn’t really advance past this point, plus the fact that Emilia didn’t interact with Windward much on D1, I’m not precluding Windward and Emilia from being aligned.
Especially considering that Emilia was the last one on, first one off on Windward here, choosing to move her vote to Alice.
Meanwhile, the will wagon arises as a town counterwagon to a wolf, and Leafia/Arctic are on there. I know this is obvious for me to say given that there are two other townies and two wolves alive, but there is absolutely a wolf in this will counterwagon given how it sprung up and how large it got.
One of Leafia or Arctic is pushing the will v counterwagon to dissipate the Windward w wagon? Not really counting Ghana/sulit’s slot, because they hopped on that wagon pretty late.
Will wagon stays like this until Alice starts hopping over to Vulg because she didn’t like how he wolfread her.
Not exactly sure how much we can get from these wagons given that they’re both villager wagons? So wolves had the freedom to really move around anywhere without worrying about getting scum Windward lunched because that wagon has completely died down at this point.
Think around this time, Leafia (one of the main drivers of the will wagon) moves onto the Vulg wagon, and Eli/Alice move to Emilia, so the will wagon completely dissipates. Wagons are now Vulg/Emilia.
I guess it’s worth noting the v/v/v on Emilia. Wagons continue to stay like this until Leafia votes Emilia, putting her up to 4 votes and making her become the leading wagon.
Windward kinda pushing the Vulg counterwagon to Emilia here kinda feels like a wolf trying to scramble onto the counterwagon to save their buddy?
Final votecount.
Think it’s worth remembering that despite Emilia and Vulg being the top two wagons, Emilia keeps stating that she thinks Vulg was town and did not self-pres, instead she voted will along with Arctic.
So looking at these votes… the biggest things I took interest in was
I have a suspicion that wolves panicked when they saw some of the better players in this game (Alice/SPF/Chloe) pick out Windward so easily so they engineered the will counterwagon to prevent her from being lunched. I think Windward had a choice between Emilia and Vulg and she decided to go with Vulg - potentially to save one of her buddies?
Still doesn’t really explain why Emilia heavily defended Vulgard and didn’t self-pres though.
Let’s look at Day 2/3 and see if they shed any more light. Kind of have a pet scumteam theory right now but we’ll see if it pans out.
Day 2 votal analysis
Tempted to say that Ghana being the first vote on Windward bodes well for the sulit slot. Don’t think a wolf draws attention to a buddy this early after they secured a villager lunch.
Pretty sure also that two wolves wouldn’t impale themselves on a sword trying to kill me.
After this, the mini-wagons kinda shift to Emilia/me, then will/Emilia. will begins to get more heat on him though.
will wagon stays at 3 for a bit while w!Wisp engineers an Eli wagon of all things.
Two v/v wagons again so I think wolves would be pretty safe hopping on either wagon. SPF joins me on Wisp but then I think she quickly switches her vote back to will, causing these wagon shifts:
Wagon pretty much stays like this until Arctic decides to finally vote for will. Kind of worth noting that Arctic sat on his vote for pretty much the entire Day until the lunch was more or less decided, even though he was pretty aggressive about wagonning will D1.
@Arctic - can you explain why you did this? Why did you not vote for most of Day 2? (only voting when the lunch was likely to be will)
