[VFM] Vanilla Nightless FM - Ice Cream Flavor: Day 6 - The Mafia Win!

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#1061

More like, jumps in logic ig? There is probably a better phrase to describe it. It is an embellishment that was suspicious to me in some way

#1062

from when wazza was L-2 until EoD

at L-2:

DatBird (non-voter) voted DryBones and sulit (Wazza) voted Nightfall
Appelsiini (non-voter) voted DryBones
Napoleon (DryBones) voted Nightfall
Appelsiini (DryBones) voted Nightfall
katze (Wazza) voted Nightfall and Universal (non-voter) voted Nightfall (about at the same time)

i think at a glance this looks worst for Appel, sulit, and Universal? and i suppose myself

#1063

If she was being sarcastic, why try to justify the sarcasm at the end? Sarcasm would be the same post

But without the highlighted part.

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#1064

Either way, she seemed towny towards the end of my ISOs

#1065

so if eevee is looking at 3 names purely from votecounts and distancing

i think those 3 names would be Appel, sulit, and Universal - perhaps myself instead of sulit?

@eevee-sama am i on the right track?

i stopped counting/101

1 Like
#1066

actually i think Napoleon can fit this criteria as well but i also donā€™t think Nappy is ā€œdistancedā€ with any of the 4 people i just listed

#1067

About to do an online class session soon so i cant show you what I wanted, but if you wanna do it while iā€™m gone, you should look at the interactions between napoleon and sulit

#1068

also i will find the right wording for it while im gone maybe. itā€™s a form of manipulation of ideas i cant think of the name rn

1 Like
#1069

Tell me who u think the other 3 mafia are so I know who to distance from pls.

#1070

Both people who were hung were voting me when they died lmao

#1071

Gonna do more analysis later but straight off the bat here is what I think

If Wazza is town then most likely Scum wonā€™t join a CFD as there is no reason to pain themselves with a mislynch

If Wazza is scum scum might join on later on the wagon is a determining factor (or lead it, depending on scum strategy). Other votes might stay on Wazza if there wonā€™t be a change

#1072

Even tho I wasnt even on either of them

#1073

Thatā€™s kinda weird scum havenā€™t capitalised off that to vote me thatā€™s a great excuse

#1074

Iā€™m happy hanging wazza fyi

1 Like
#1075

Gathering all this together. Time to analyze it now.

#1076

why tf does everyone want me dead all the time.

#1077

like fr.

You all want me to die, but none of you want to make a proper push on me.

#1078

We currently know that DryBones and Nightfall are both Town.

If Wazza is a member of the Town:

  • To scum, the wagons are rather inconsequential and it doesnā€™t matter who gets lynched for them as the three main wagons are Townies.
    • Therefore, the main objective is to set up Townies for a mislynch so that they could be shaded for it
  • This suggests that most of these wagons are probably town-driven - as thereā€™s little reason to paint yourself as suspicious for leading a wagon onto another townie, so a Wazza town would probably paint one of sulit/Hippolytus as town?
  • The CFD in this case would probably be town-driven, scum would not want to vote on a mislynch
  • I would look for voters that meet some of the following criteria:
    • Were present at EoD
    • That did not join the Nightfall wagon (staying on the Wazza wagon or DryBones wagon while present at EoD)
    • That shaded voters on the wagon of Nightfall
  • Players who are most likely to fall under that category (and who I would suspect for maybe-ish different reasons): EVO, DatBird, Hippolytus

If Wazza is a member of the Mafia:

  • The wagon does matter, depending on the intent of the Wazza wagon.
  • The Wazza wagon would probably have scum contributors to it that joined the wagon in order to distance. The starter of the wagon was katze.
    • It could be a bussing tactic. Itā€™s noteworthy that katze had three votes on them by the time they began the wagon; though if I had to analyze the atmosphere, I would be confident that I would not get lynched if I were katze.
    • They wanted to lynch Wazza/DryBones until DryBones gave his last word. Then he pushed on Hippo. This seems opportunistic if Hippo is a member of the Town and Wazza a member of the Mafia.
  • They let go of their wagon for a CFD, though tbh you could tell that katze/NF interactions were not healthy. This quote above is kinda a bad look for katze if Wazza flips Mafia. But katze didnā€™t go out of their way to push on me or sulit, they continued wanting a hang on Wazza/Drybones. If they are wolf they are playing a long-term plan deepwolf. I donā€™t consider D2 too important here because DryBones self-hammered. Ew.

I think this is important. Setting up a counterwagon with DryBones town makes scum more likely to jump on it. I know that Iā€™m town, so this isnā€™t too good of a look on DatBird and Appelsiini.

Then I vote with sulit and people jump on that counterwagon instead. I donā€™t think sulit leading the CFD here is really that suspicious, they risked failure of the CFD and letting Wazza hang. On the contrary, at one point they voted Wazza and then took their vote off to accuse Nightfall, which directs attention away from DatBird. These interactions are kinda meh IMO.

Appelsiini and Universal both join on. This is Universalā€™s first vote and Appelsiini went from DB to Nightfall, never voting Wazza

I would look for voters that meet some of the following criteria:

  • Were present at EoD
  • That participated on the Nightfall wagon but slipped off easily from Wazza
  • That participated on the Nightfall wagon without doing much else
  • That didnā€™t change
  • That sheeped both votes on Wazza and Nightfall with eagerness, or voted Wazza and just sheeped Nightfall with eagerness

The players that I would suspect are: Appelsiini, Universal, sulit.

I feel like I have the right logic but I made some mistakes in selecting my candidates. I gotta read the posts itself I think.

2 Likes
#1079

So obviously you want to lynch Wazza today, right @eevee-sama

#1080

Let me look at that again.