I’m also usually correct on my first judgements of people, even early game, so I think I can trust my judgement here.
Alright, I’m here. I have a few opinions but I’ll hold onto them for now.
@Whysper Can you give me an elaborate read on Kat & Derps, and how they are W/W? You said you “said it earlier today” yet didn’t quote the posts where you talked about your solving.
@Leafia what are your reads as of this moment?
VOTECOUNT AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
| Accused | Voted by | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| No Elimination | Leafia, Vulgard | 2/4 |
| Not voting | Appelsiini, SirDerpsAlot, Katze, Whysper | 4 |
lemme know if i hecked up
Day ends 2020-09-16T16:50:00Z
I don’t get what that refers to but I’ll just pretend like I understand
nods frantically
Anyway, there’s something I want to ask you too. What do you think Kat’s thought process is, and why do you think he’s keeping it a secret if it’s not what I think it is?
Alright, wallpost incoming
If it’s not done before EoD, yell at me please because it is specifically about today’s EoD
Hmm, I did quote my posts in reply to you. Below is a link to the post with the quotes. Though this is mostly based on Derps & Esq since Derps hasn’t really done much lately and Kat appears to be now trying to distance from Derps since he’s the likely lynch.
Why I’m not okay with nocuddling today
I have two reasons for this.
Reason one is that it is very obvious Vulgard will die. Vul is the person who has put the most effort into solving and has had a massive thread presence, despite just replacing in today. I’ve had very little presence as of lately, so even though I’m a consensus townread, it quite likely wouldn’t matter whether or not I stay alive. Everyone else is miscuddleable – and if my theory holds correct, wolves will win this game as long as Vulgard is dead by tomorrow.
Reason two is that I believe the wolfteam is actually Kat/Whysper. I originally toneleaned Whysper as town, but there were a few things that seemed off when I put some pressure on her. Her volume has lowered drastically after no one was pushing her anymore and she has been on the sidelines and going along with everyone else’s reads. This is because all of her previous reads were associated with others pushing her, and as the pressure went away, so did her basis on the reads.
When I asked Whysper to point me to the last post where she tried to solve, she quoted every post she had made during the day. Do I watch too much criminal psychology videos and apply them to FM? Maybe, but those who are guilty will often overexplain things as an attempt to “show off” their innocence (and in this case, towniness) when they are presented with a short question. This is exactly what Whysper did. This wouldn’t normally make me scumread a previously townleaned person so confidently, but with this few people, they have simply went lower than everyone else.
Then onto Kat. I’ve briefly discussed my reasons for scumreading them, but I will state them again.
One reason is that they’re inconfident in their reads, and not in a villagery way.
Remember that Kat has 4 days worth of content. Even if they supposedly want to protect their townreads by shading on them, it’s plain as day who has thread control. Or does he think the wolves will kindly kill someone from PoE for us?
Another reason is the way they’ve wanted to nocuddle as soon as the day started, without bothering to pressure people like they did with Marshal to see their alignment. And how this would work perfectly for them.
As I said earlier, it’s quite obvious who has thread control: Vul and Kat. Everyone else, including myself, have been on the more quiet side. If he really isn’t as inconfident in his reads as he’s implying, then the PoE should be clear already. Waiting a day won’t do anything because if you already have so much content and can’t do it, then it’s unlikely you will somehow change your mind on things with another day. I can’t get behind his thought process, and when I try asking, he dodges the question. I’m starting to lean towards the other option I had: that that’s what he’s using in order to avoid suspicion so that his wolfy behavior would be ignored.
And what wraps up this all? My theory, that explains why both of their behaviors would make sense from a wolf PoV.
What really got me curious was something Vul pointed out. This post.
I started thinking about it, and it’s true. Why hasn’t there been any opposition during the whole course of the game? Why is there no opposition when Derps has been concluded as scum by pretty much everyone? Whysper was busy defending herself, and Esquiddy was a weak player. That would explain it. If Derps is a wolf with one of them, why wouldn’t they try to push someone else?
I can’t continue this further because I have to go, but what I’m thinking is that Kat/Whysper are planning to get rid of the only other person with thread control and miscuddle Derps.
@Vulgard @Leafia @SirDerpsAlot @katze
Please excuse the fact that this was done in a hurry and thus is painful to read but read this (and for Kat: explain why this is not true)
Also the post I was talking about at the end is Vul talking about why no one was defending Derps but I have no time to look it up aaaa
Actually I went through and selected just the posts that compiled my thoughts on the 2 possible teams I saw. I assumed you wanted to see the full thought process instead of just a final post where I talked about Luxy only.
i have a question
if esquiddy/whysper are together
then why did esquiddy almost kill whysper with their vote d2
their vote put whysper at 3 votes
the yeeted villager ended up having 4
Your attempt to do a trick question is flawed. It is just as easily confusing no matter what alignment you ask. Of course someone would assume you are asking the question in attempt to review and solve. And you stated you are busy and don’t have time to go back yourself. So if the “last post” doesn’t have much content and is split out between multiple posts, it is reasonable to help you by compiling them together.