Wild West FM - Day 5 - Mafia Win!

I am fully prepared when the time comes

iā€™ll be blunt here, i donā€™t understand what youā€™re trying to accomplish if youā€™re town.
itā€™s like you donā€™t give a fuck regardless of alignment. and itā€™s annoying.
just say out loud whatever it is that you think, without tiptoeing and being cryptic. we need all the town voices right now. assuming youā€™re town.

welp you explained that easily.

Cheers.

There is no maybe and no questions.
Either you feel desperate and use support line and follow or not.

There is no point in full-scale convincing war, if you donā€™t need me now, I can go for 1 vs 1 tomorrow in worst case anyway.

So let me ask again, are you desperate enough for that?

so, you know who the scum are? iā€™m listening.

Light's ISO but there's no fluff

[quote=ā€œLight, post:1321, topic:83518, full:trueā€]
What about them they didnā€™t like me for solving, I quoted me solving, and then they said that I was still bad ayaya

weh

lightā€™s prolly just town

im probably just tinfoiling

imma look through this one more time after school anyways

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Was an example of LAMIST btw
I said that in the next post for anyone going through my ISO

iā€™m just gonna ask myself a few questions here, donā€™t mind me.

  1. what would i do as a wolf in poe here?
  • broaden the PoE.
  • flip the PoE.
  • post a lot to flip/broaden the PoE.
  • try to pivot to villagers in the PoE.

all four involve posting a lot, because without posting, i just get poeā€™d with no defenders. itā€™s not like i will get defended for doing nothing.
i used that defense recently to ā€œclearā€ sulit and whysper, but shush.

  1. what would i do as a wolf outside of poe here?
  • make sure the PoE stays the way it is.
  • post enough to not have the PoE flipped on me.
  • make sure my team doesnā€™t get killed, whether they are in the PoE or not.

in that world, wolves have significantly more control over the thread, and by extension, they have no need to post as much. the consensus is already in their favor. all they have to do is maintain the status quo by any means necessary, so they donā€™t have to panic and pivot onto villagers.

  1. is the poe posting a lot?
  • gorta: he has posted some stuff.
  • wazza: most of his posts are complaining about me.
  • whysper: she has done nothing to get out of the PoE, really.
  • sulit: keeps promising content, but never delivers.
  • eevee: in commentary mode most of the time, shows no interest in the game.

it seems unlikely that the wolves are in the old poe, assuming the conditions i listed are correct. at most, there are up to two wolves there out of the remaining four, and they can be conveniently saved by the wolves outside of the poe.

this confirms that we have wolves outside of the poe. and if ā€œwolves in poe should try to post themselves out of itā€ holds true, then gorta would be the most likely wolf in that group, if there is one.

  1. are people outside of the poe trying to maintain the poe?
  • centuries: absolutely not. he has been evaluating a flip this whole time.
  • universal: seems to want to flip. not a huge pusher of it.
  • appel: fairly content.
  • light: discontent.
  • ash: conflicted feelings there.

light and centuries look good for trying to flip it, given what i established re: what the poe is doing.
universal, appel, and ash look worse.

  1. where does this leave us?
  • the old poe is unlikely to contain more than one wolf.
  • the only person in the old poe which has a notable wolf equity is gorta, because he is the only person who tried to post himself out of it in a meaningful way.
  • the people outside of the poe who have wolf equity are universal, appel, and ash, who have displayed varied levels of acceptance of the old poe.

i would do a similar analysis for ā€œwhat should villagers inside / outside the PoE be doing right now,ā€ but the problem is that iā€™m certain that many villagers are justā€¦ not doing anything at this stage of the game. so, whatever conditions i set simply wonā€™t apply to this particular game. for instance:

  1. what would i do as a villager in the poe?
  • try my best to post myself out of the PoE.
  • evaluate the other players in the PoE.
  • evaluate if the PoE is being made by wolves / horribly wrong villagers, based on my evaluation of its main proponents and the other people within said PoE.
  • figure out why iā€™m in PoE, and what it says about my pushers / the gamestate.
  • flip the PoE if i come to the conclusion itā€™s flawed or downright terrible.

barely any villagers have been doing any of those things. the person who comes the closest is wazza, and the only thing he did was a weak attempt at #5 + an even weaker attempt at #3.

which is why iā€™m not even going to bother with that logic. the village is not up to par this game, and i shouldnā€™t use the logic of ā€œwhat would villagers do here,ā€ because most villagers left alive are not doing much.

there is a world where the two of these contradict each other. however, in the current gamestate, i am fully convinced that the village is the side not doing much to win this game anymore. they are the demoralized ones.
the last step for the wolves is to make sure their position is good enough, so that they donā€™t get shot last-minute and they can win the game. of course, this translates to a higher willingness to post, especially for the potential wolves in poe.
the only person in the poe who has posted in any meaningful way as of late is gorta.

itā€™s not the best reasoning ā€“ in fact, it is severely flawed. but given the gamestate, i donā€™t think itā€™s entirely incorrect.

Yes, because the person who started the movement to question the current PoE and requested we donā€™t make shots without questioning things and instead try to look at everything before making our shots must be a wolf. If I was a wolf I would have never brought attention to this shitty PoE and instead pushed to shoot those that were town in said PoE.

I have almost given up, but I am hardheaded and stubborn when it comes to giving up.

I am trying to be a town leader and step up my game, but that doesnā€™t make me a damn wolf. I did something similar in SFoL 63, but itā€™s hard to do much when everyone is under Aliceā€™s spell. Even if I am demoralized and lazy I still want to win this damn game

okay, then. if you are a villager in the poe, it is your responsibility to create a new, superior poe, and to explain why the current poe is bad, and to explain why the new poe you are creating is good.

you have indeed said that the current poe is bad, but i havenā€™t seen you offer anything superior that was backed up by proper reasoning. would you do that for me now, so i can have evidence in the thread that you have indeed thought about how to win this game for the village?

iā€™m sorry if i sound condescending, itā€™s really not my intention. but if youā€™re a villager here, then i want to 1. find you and 2. listen to what you have to say. which is why iā€™m encouraging you to offer a standpoint that will help us win the game.

You know that I have trouble explaining my thoughts. I have explained why I think the current PoE is complete crap. My new PoE would probably have you/sulit/eevee/Ash/Appel and maybe Wazza(?) and I canā€™t explain why itā€™s superior because itā€™s mostly gut/tone based. I still need to case you and Appel

I canā€™t explain my thoughts for crap

do you believe this poe wins the game? why do you believe this poe wins the game?

also, why am i a wolf if i agree with 2 of the people you put on that list? this is a bit of a trick / loaded question i suppose, so you can skip it if you want.

and that makes it hard to read you and find you V. youā€™re like derps, with less meming and spontaneity.
this isnā€™t an insult. youā€™re just similarly difficult to read.

put yourself in my shoes, and assume iā€™m a villager. i look at what youā€™re offering, and i see five names with hardly any justification, with a sixth as a ā€œborderline.ā€
how am i supposed to determine whether you actually believe this, or whether you picked the names at random, and included just enough villagers to win the game by pushing this PoE as a wolf?

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I need to case it more, but those are the ones I actively scum read/donā€™t have much of a read on.

You would agree with some names to fit in as a wolf. I know I would if I was a wolf

I canā€™t be that hard to read. People like Derps and Leafia can do it just fine

hmm.
do you have evidence that her read on you is good?

as in. reads from past games where she was town and correct about your alignment. my question was ratherā€¦ imprecise.