[Winter Event] JoaTJoaTJoaT13 - Mafia wins!

I’m planning on voting since literally once we up Maple, if they’re not mafia, then the team is Intensify and Light prob

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is this a YES or a no

Sure

Ok so your point is completely invalid then about me and Light defending each other

no it’s not
you don’t buss like this regardless

Because it sets up 4 ML’s during the day? They may not have intentionally missed one of the kills, but it’s an easy setup to misyeet half the town. That’s a good strategy imo. They don’t need to make as many night kills if they can sit back and watch town yeet itself instead. It also convinces town to relax more and let down their guard, as opposed to town being very guarded if scum is making “smart” kills.

nah I brought it up, not Intensify. Anyway ftr I don’t think scum intentionally missed both of the night kills, but they may have intentionally missed one, and they intentionally killed within the JoaT claims to make it look like they didn’t know who the actual JoaTs were. They also targeted Eevee twice, which tells me one of two things:

  1. they were dumb (I think this is a fallacy at this point)
  2. they wanted Eevee out as a highly capable player and were easily able to frame the low-activity players because we were activity-reading as a scumtell (probably my fault)

It would not be clear by LyLo necessarily. You’ve still been leaning heavily on a PKR vote and it looks like maybe Light is, too? (or maybe I’ve completely misread his last read) so if we misyeet today and then PKR gets yeeted and flips not scum, we lose.

yes this is what I was trying to say. sacrificing 2 kills for 4 misyeets doubles the number of town that gets voted out, plus wastes 4 days where scum never gets yeeted. See my point? it’s to buy them time while we focus on the framed pool.

yeah basically

that was me, yes, but the first one to bring up the prospect of “active but inexperienced scum” was actually Light if you look at his posts from earlier today (when I was busy totally misreading his projected outcome thingy, which I think you should all read for yourselves).

If there are two puzzle pieces missing and PKR is only one of them, and no other pieces fit with him, I don’t think he can be scum because he’s been very unaware of the thread in all honesty, and it would imply he has an active scum partner who is capable of filling him in and not letting him just throw a night kill onto someone who is not a great target. This is why I think it’s being done on purpose now.

Earlier in this post, I said if they’re big braining us, they legit missed one nightkill, played it off as a “scum must be stupid”, and purposely targeted the same person a second time (Eevee), and decided to push that agenda because town pushed the theory first, not scum (me, Arctic, maybe even Maple).

^^^ this tbh
I’m not sure how, but I think Intensify just dropped in my reads within the span of reading the last hour’s worth of their posts because I don’t get what it is they don’t get about the big brain play? lol

Disagree here. Look at my ISO on Intensify and how they kind of sit on Maple at the beginning of each day. Then look at Light, who does the same thing when Maple starts hammering town. Both of them kind of sit on Maple as a “cautious” read but neither one seriously votes Maple because the wagon always dissolves within less than half a day.

good, you got what I was saying.

and this, too.

you’re right to doubt it because I’m not scum lol. But I think Arctic and I both more or less see what’s going on, and now scum is actually in hot water because we’ve caught onto them. It’s just a matter of yeeting both of them now.

Because, whoever killed Eevee, they know Eevee is good at solving and would be able to solve the game faster than the rest of us (Arctic and I are still newbies and we make more mistakes as a result). Plus, it fortifies the (mis)concept that the scum thought Eevee was an actual JoaT, while Arctic and I were both convinced the JoaTs were exactly Min and Eli, but also that Min would never protect Eli N1 because they scumread him but townread Eevee. Also, as Arctic pointed out, Eevee was townreading Maple and said Maple is never scum here.

I’m a quick writer, what can I say? : P

This is what I was trying to say in my tired dumb-brain-it’s-new-year’s-and-I’m-sleepy state. It implies that PKR and I have to be the scumteam, which is… a little too weird imo. I find it noteworthy that Light still thinks PKR is scum and that I’m the scum backup. That’s why I pointed out that it’s strange he assumes Intensify and Arctic are always the last to die, despite both being heavily townread. That would imply that one is scum and the other is just someone that for some reason, scum wouldn’t want to kill. At least, in my opinion. I’m awake now and I still think it was a weird post from Light and it really made me think for a while.

This
And both have been pushing Maple only a little each day, then getting off before it becomes a real wagon. So, yes, Maple could still be scum with one of them, but I think Maple might be right and they should be last to be voted out and not first.

Ordinarily I wouldn’t see it as necessarily towny, especially if Marl had flipped town, but considering that scum wouldn’t swap votes to bus their teammate when they had a perfectly viable ML set up, Arctic is right, Eevee is right, and I think Maple is less scummy than certain other people here.

I was thinking that, yes. But that’s a very useless way to bus instead of just outright going “Marl is scum” and voting Marl. That would be a bus. This was a “maybe, maybe not, but let’s try this”. Also the way this conversation is going, it’s making me think otherwise. That, and my weird dream last night that I am totally not just reading into too much. Totally not.

I’m leaning toward exeing one of Light/Intensify now and saving Maple for the next day. Not that the flip is going to tell us much if it’s scum, but if one of Light/Intensify flips town we can definitely yeet the other and Maple, as far as I’m concerned. If Maple flips scum, we don’t know which one to yeet. If Maple flips town, we have to yeet both.
So we have more certainty by yeeting one of Light/Intensify today.

Again, disagree, but read what I wrote directly above this. It’s more productive to yeet one of them and wait for Maple till tomorrow just to speed up the game imo.

I at least know I’m town, so if Arctic is big braining me then I’m absolutely dead right after Eli lol.

The funny thing is that if we’re reading activity as AI, Maple is town because scum would come and defend themselves here, wouldn’t they? Or is that just not what Maple does? Or else they’re lurking and waiting to hammer themselves, but that tells us absolutely nothing till they flip, so let’s just not.

Ok, thanks. I just wanted to make sure you still thought that.

No evidence, only lack of evidence. But neither you nor Light have ever accused each other, you’re both kind of voting the same people, if anything (or else one of you abstains), and there’s been a setup on Maple at the beginning of every day.

This

These are good questions. Light has never been pushed as scum, unlike me. I’ve been pushed for having scummy posts, scummy actions, inconvenient timing popping in and scaring the shit out of PKR when I did so (and for some reason Light still seems to think we could be a scumteam despite PKR’s frustration with my bad timing).

I don’t think you and Light are wrong for your reasons of townreading each other, but I’m thinking it’s not enough. There isn’t enough there in either of your posts for me to think that you hard townread each other. Sure, I agreed with the general townread on both of you, but it’s come down to one of you being scum, and it seems weird that one of you could have pocketed the other by essentially not doing much except for agreeing on reads and townreading the other. There’s a better chance than I initially thought of you both being scum, let’s put it that way. There’s also a chance that only one of you is scum, but in that case one of you still has to be wrong for townreading the other, which tells me that one of you isn’t looking closely enough.

No
but if Maple is in LyLo, by all means you should consider whether or not they’re actually scum.

While I’d love to claim that I could be pocketing you, I’ve literally never randed scum so that would make this my first scum game if anything. And I think you would be overestimating me to assume I could deepwolf this well.

As scum, I’d rather have just left you to your doom, since Arctic was continuing to tunnel you at the beginning of the day lol.

I just replied to an hour’s worth of posts that I missed while writing a wallpost, with another wallpost, wtf am I doing

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/vote Maple @Arete
if Maple flips town, get intensify and light. BUT FIRST, RE-EVALUATE. AND DO NOT SNAP VOTE. IF THIS HAPPENS, YOU WILL BE IN LYLO. Somehow I doubt this world will happen, howeer.
if Maple flips Mafia JoaT, then get arctic
if Maple flips Goon, then get PKR, and if that fails, then you’re in LyLo and idk what to tell ya other than ?probably? arctic, but it really depends on the kill.
this is the plan. maple will probably self-hammer lets be real

/vote Light

I’d say you should unvote cause maple will come in and hammer themselves

i’ve gotten the gamesolve imo
doesn’t matter anyways

Maple will self-hammer at shit o’clock in the morning, is the problem

Leave the hammers till at least daytime lol

I’m voting Light because I really did not like his MyLo/LyLo analysis

any more discussion will probably just lead to too much re-eval
we will doubt our ability bla bla bla
the only reason i think this is because there was this study where if ur writing 5-paragraph essay, then if you spend more than x amount of time on it it gets worse or smth
i heard this frm my teacher

this is why somebody else hammers

Uh huh… right time to respond to the wallpost I guess…

Look at this again.
It’s addressed to Arctic, so “me” refers to Light and “you” refers to Arctic.
Now tell me whether it looks like TMI or not.

I disagree. I had Marl up in my nullreads with Maple and Eli at the bottom on early D1, but I reevaluated while I was being wagoned and flipped my reads after some analysis. And that change was correct.

i’m not saying re-eval is bad
i’m saying too much is

considering I reevaluated this thread literally in my sleep, it’s too late for me lmao

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