Biologist is going to be Lying Darkness 2.0
Personal judgement difference: 1/7 is low for me.
What are you even trying to prove? Good PR reading is required? Can you spot the Biologist within one Day Phase?
–also, your talk about the reward and punishment is a red herring.
I mean
If Biologist manages to correctly read Queen, and then Queen counterplays by reading Biologist correctly
I don’t see how it’s a red herring
Though I do think Biologist sniping Queen d1 even with the result delay and then Queen missing a convert is slightly unbalanced
That’d leave Aliens at a… 11v1 on D3. Without convert potential.
Yikes.
… I’d say give Queen D1/N1 invest immunity but at this point she’s broken if you put in an Ambassador and mix her with Warriors
It’s a bit problematic
I think it’s fine just hoping Queen doesn’t die to the jettison D1 and either
- Doesn’t get sniped by a Biologist cop D1
- If they get sniped by a Biologist cop D1, they convert them without being occupied/hacked
… Actually, now that I think about it, if the Queen is hacked then Storyteller would hopefully redirect them to Biologist if they were copped D1.
Delaying the check until the night gives us this possibility
That’s why I like delaying it
We started with this:
How the hell did you end up with this?
It is red herring, because competence has nothing to do with probabilities of Biologist getting converted by the Queen.
–well, it does but… sigh. Never mind. I give up.
Do whatever you want.
Actually it’s a little bit lower than 1/7
I forgot to factor in Biologist not checking themselves
It’s a 1/13 and then a 1/14, if either succeed the setup ends D1 in the world Biologist does not delay their check until EoD
A Queen could only be hacked by an Technician, and according to N.1’s words, the conversion has to benefit town. (…I wonder how the N1 Hack on Magnus was a good thing for town?)
I don’t even know where you pull these numbers from. So… ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Probability of lone Queen dying to Jettison D1 : Probability of lone Queen being redchecked by Biologist D1
In a 14p setup
I managed to push agenda that App couldn’t be Queen off of this logic
So meh, it was mechanically better for Town but I pushed social agenda
Actually, it’s a bit higher than that, since you also need to add “competence” of the Queen.
But… where did you even get “1/7” from?
Who did he plan to target again?
That was accidental.
I thought it was 1/14 + 1/14 chance, but forgot that Queen would know they weren’t biologist. So it’s 1/14 (Jettison Chance) and 1/13 (Biologist Redcheck Chance)
Italy + Wazza
How does that limit their use? With your answer, the Biologist might as well simply not use their second ability.