I’m just being realistic. You’re right though.
Arete is the Mayor
Shurian is the Saint
Marshal is the Slayer
Director is the Butler
Simon is the Washerwoman. They found me or magnus as Investigator. (Which leads us to conclude Magnus is spy.)
Isaac is the Soldier
Maxwell is the Librarian. He confirms Shurian as the Saint.
Possessed is the Undertaker
lets narrow down PoE
Arete is the Mayor
Marshal is the Slayer
Isaac is the Soldier
Maxwell is the Librarian. He confirms Shurian as the Saint.
here’s PoE if we remove outsiders(or probably outsiders in simon’s case) and poss.
is maxwell out of PoE again?
I think Maxwell is very unlikely due to the idea that Isaac and Magnus fudged their claims. Maxwell would be the tic-tac-toe to pass information down privately.
in that case.
let’s just lynch isaac>Me>arete.
if we don’t yeet demon here, it’s
7(isaac lynched)
6(nightkill)
5(me lynched)
4(nightkill)
3(arete lynched)
if arete or isaac isn’t demon we lose.
otherwise GG i think.
if poss is scum this game is busted anyways.
I say lynch isaac and go from there because there’s a good 70% chance this game is a big TvT with us yelling at each other
I absolutely think we should lynch Isaac but I’m not sure how I feel about anyone creating a lynch order at this point in the game
CAN HAIL REASONABLY BE EVIL
an analysis by user Arete
STIPULATIONS
The following points will be taken for granted in this analysis:
- All claims on the public list of claims that were made by Good players are true (in the sense that they aren’t lying, not in the sense that they’re not malfunctioning in some way)
- Wazza was a minion. Reasoning: he’s definitely not Good, and if he were evil he could have claimed an out-of-play role.
- {Magnus, Isaac} contains a minimum of 1 minion. Reasoning: they both claimed the same role, and the Demon probably wouldn’t have wanted to claim an in-play role.
- All dead players who died at night are Good-aligned. This is probably the weakest assumption? Reasoning: I don’t think anyone in this player list would star pass and none of those feel like starpasses to me.
If Hail is any starting evil, then there’s no Drunk, purely by the outsider count preventing there being a Baron. This also forces the set of Minions to be exactly Scarlet Woman/Spy/Poisoner.
PART A: CAN HAIL BE THE STARTING DEMON
- If Hail is a starting Demon, then either Marshal was evil, Marshal was poisoned N1, or Marshal was under the influence of the channel-master.
- In the scenario where Marshal is evil, the scumteam is exactly Hail + Wazza/Marshal/{Magnus, Isaac}, with Magnus as very likely Spy to register for Simon (though he could have been Poisoned or under the influence of the channel-master}. This also requires Magnus to claim an in-play role as Spy, which would be dumb, and for Possessed to subsequently have been poisoned on N3 and N4.
- In the scenario where Marshal was poisoned N1 ALL OTHER INFO CANNOT HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY POISON N1. This once again points to Simon being the channel-master. This scenario would also mean that Possessed was poisoned on N4 (since he saw Magnus as Demon) and N3 (since he saw Wazza as Poisoner, which would prevent him from being under the influence of poison on N4 if true).
- In the scenario where Marshal was under the influence of the channel-master then no one else can be channel-mastered, which would once again require Possessed to have been poisoned N3 and N4, and for Magnus to be exactly Spy or for Simon to have been poisoned N1.
PART B: CAN HAIL BE A STARTING MINION
- If Hail is a starting Minion, that makes the Minion team exactly Hail/Wazza/{Isaac, Magnus}. This means that either Possessed’s N4 information was wrong due to him being under the influence of the channel-master (Hail Minion -> there is no Drunk), or Possessed was poisoned N4, or Possessed is the Demon, or the Minion team was Hail/Wazza/Isaac with Magnus as starting Demon. The first option points to Magnus being the Spy on the basis of Simon’s N1 info being wrong (although Simon could have been yolopoisoned), which would still mean that Possessed was poisoned N4 because his info would still have been wrong. Any scenario in which Possessed was poisoned N4 requires him also to have been poisoned N3 (when he saw Wazza as Poisoner); these scenarios all also require Hail to be exactly Poisoner. The third option (‘Possessed is the Demon’) requires that Kyo have been poisoned N1 (though to be fair Wazza did claim as much), or else that exactly Kyo be under the influence of the Channel-master, in which case Simon would have had to have been poisoned N1 or Magnus would’ve had to claim an in-play role as Spy. The last scenario means that {Hail, Isaac} contains a Scarlet Woman and means that Wazza’s Poisoner claim is very likely true, and also in that scenario Simon was once again either poisoned N1 or under the influence of the channel-master.
tl;dr Hail probably not evil, I think?
Correction
Simon is therefore Drunk
Isaac is probably demon from that exchange
Hail is Butler
Wait a min
Marshal could have been malfunctioning as well…
Maxwell is 100% town unless he’s spy, and if Isaac flips minion, or
Wait I know we’ve gone through this before but registering as something how the fish does that work