this isn’t about trust
I don’t need you to trust me
I just need town to lynch scum
no, you really shouldn’t trust people here
try to analyze the situation yourself rather than just instinctively going against anything other people tell you because of paranoia
hi, sorry, I was doing the podcast for the Champs finale, I’m here now
I have thoughts but half of those thoughts are just being really annoyed about the modkill, because like, my PoE is literally two people and before the modkill we probably had two chances to get things right and now we’re reasonably likely to be in MyLo
trying to tie the vote here to kill the neut is kind of questionable because ties kill a random person outside the tie, not inside it
also because hidden votes are a thing and the last wolf could just lie about how many votes they have to mess things up
at this point where I’m at is like
do I trust that Appel last-minute voting a wolf, thereby breaking a tie and getting the wolf exe’d, makes her always town
because if I trust that then I’m pretty sure the game is just solved
and I think I want to trust that but there’s a tiny voice in the back of my head that says that doing literally anything else would have been openwolfing
(also I kind of think wolf!Appel just kills me there, I was blatantly never W/W with Light and the loudest anti-Appel voice, obviously there’s some amount of WifoM there but I do think that I’m the obvious kill for scum!Appel)
why didn’t you show up to EoD (or … cast a vote earlier, if you weren’t going to make it)?
I did kind of get scummy vibes from Appel yesterday, I don’t know how I feel about your slot at this point, and I think the last wolf is in you/appel/PKR
Like Appel only voting Light in the last second after he voted Arete is kind of sus, but I think a scum Appel might possibly vote Arete anyway if they could somehow out vote the town, so I don’t know
okay so I’m at the point where like
Lemonfairy is clear because neut
so that leaves
cheese
you
PKR
Appeli
just purely off of ‘the neut is not the last wolf’
I had cleared Derps from Light spew before I saw the modkill announcement but that’s useless now
a thing I spent a lot of the night thinking about was ‘what if I’m just really bad and it’s cheese’ because he’s spent a lot of this game harddefending wolves but, like, I don’t actually think hard-defending every wolf is scum-AI for him, and my sense during EoD was that he really believed that I was a wolf, I’m not sure if he could fake that as scum
I also find the way he’s been spending his points to be villagery
also Light spew is a really good look for him, at EoD1 when cheese was (narrowly) top wagon Light blatantly did not give a crap about the wagons but as soon as we CFD’d Wazza
you’re another slot I went back and forth on, like, I had you as ‘probably a villager’ but I’m sort of like ‘but am I willing to bet the game on it,’ but you had a couple posts around EoD that I think basically always come from town
like I know this looks like a small thing but I kind of don’t think you would write the part of this post I bolded as scum, because if you were scum then you would have TMI about Light flipping scum/me not flipping scum and you wouldn’t need to add the caveat about being nervous and thinking it was a bad idea, I’m explaining that really badly and I don’t know how to explain it better, you’re going to hate this argument but it makes sense in my head I promise
so that leaves EliAppel and PKR
and this is where I’m most conflicted, and I hate that Derps got modkilled because it means we probably only have one chance to get it right and we can’t just doink both of them, but I do think that PKR is more likely to be the last wolf than Eli/Appel
like Appel called Light a villager, right, and that + her trying to CFD Derps is part of what makes me doubt this read, but at the end of the day she did also choose to break the tie and vote out Light, and that’s something I’m weighting fairly heavily here, that as the deciding vote she chose to vote out a wolf in a plausibly-close-to-MyLo scenario
and PKR called Light a wolf and me a villager but didn’t show up to EoD or cast a vote, which is something that set off internal alarm bells, that he pointed out all the ways that Light was acting scummy but didn’t actually vote there
and separately I think that Surge dying and me living points to the last wolf being PKR over Appel, there’s some amount of WifoM in the nightkills but – scum could have changed the nightkill after Derps got modkilled, and today might be MyLo, if the last wolf is anyone other than PKR they could have just left Surge alive and probably won based on Surge pushing out PKR today
and this doesn’t “feel right” in the sense of being an answer that I’m comfortable calling 100 percent correct, I have doubts, I’ve found some of PKR’s actions this game to be villagery and I’m planning on spending a lot of today trying to sort out his slot
but that’s where I’m at right now
Mental stress and a lack of sleep partner up to make it so that I pass out and get some rest.
I did not vote prior to it because I did not want to make any wagon get too close to hammer jic it was town in the end.
I would like to further state that if I was actually mafia then I would have just conceded because the fact is that we have Alice, a neut alive and 1 scum. Say I am mafia and I get lynched. If game does not end, it outright proves Alice is mafia siding so she gets hanged day 6 but if game does end then well, town wins that way too. I would have no reason to keep this game going either way.
The stage we are at is simple.
Let us discount Alice down to a character who is half and half town and maf. Ignoring the fact that she still likely is town based on what she said before.
So, let us first treat it like Alice has scumsided
Then we would be at a 4v1(plus 1
Mislynch me gets us to 3v1(plus 1
Mafia night kill to 2v1(plus 1
And this is game over because then all Alice and the mafia do is novote and unless town have more vote power, then we lose.
Kill is 1v1(plus 1 then nolynch again, then kill.
If Alice is townsiding like I think, and I am sure many of us think is the case.
Then we would be at a 4(plus 1 v 1
Mislynch is 3(plus 1 v 1
Kill is 2(plus 1 v 1
Logically in this scenario town should nolynch because then mafia is forced to give away info by killing someone. It is likely that mafia kills Alice though to avoid giving away information.
This makes it a 2v1 with vote power shenanigans.
We can maybe afford 1 mislynch. But this puts our game in the hands of Alice.
can you walk me through where your head is at right now? e.g. who do you think is town, who’s your best guess for Last™ Wolf™
I do not think it is you. Reasoning being the whole D1 thing with you and the Vigilante item. Furthermore, you being on the scum wagons.
I do not think it is cloned. Cloned today came out as a fucking GOAT. If they are scum and performing theatre then fair fucking play as they could easily have got off the mislynch they needed to get rid of me, but they chose to outright stop it from happening.
Alice is being outright discounted. I believe she is neut, not just scum who claimed neut to get the neut to scumside. As the neut could have had a free victory by townsiding and outing her which has not happened by now.
This brings it down to Lemonfairy, Appel and gorta.
Lemon at the start of day had a fucking horrendous post and chose to vote me which, I feel like if Gorta was scum then they casually would have followed along with it but they have not done so here yet.
I would almost always lynch Lemon over Gorta here. And I would not consider anyone else.
PKR I have a legitimate question, and this is probably going to sound insulting, but I don’t know how to make it not sound insulting
how much attention are you paying to this game?
Enough that I can accept why you are questioning me on this topic.
Alice is Lemon and now I feel fucking dumb.
Ok, then, time to scrap this shit and to question why the fuck they tried to start a quickvote.
Since I trust Alice, take Lemon out of the equation of being scum and we get to Appel v Gorta which really does not do much to change what I was saying. I feel like if Gorta was scum they could easily have voted me and played dumb, so I am less wanting them out.
I would vote out Appel more than Gorta but they are the only 2 I would vote.