(for reference this paragraph originally only had the first sentence)
That was an afterthought that came like 1 millisecond later and I really wanted to add it
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I know I shouldn’t be doing that but
I’m sorry
Have headpats, hosts
I will get ready to be yelled at for quick-editing
and, yeah, it’s funny that you mention it, because your progression on me is one of the bigger hang-ups I’m having with your slot right now
like, you went from having me as close to lock V on D4:
funny that
and maintaining it yesterday
albeit with a handful of doubts (that aren’t even particularly AI 
)
to still thinking I’m town at SoD today
and during the middle of the day
to having me as their most likely wolf
and … I legitimately cannot find reasons for this change, or progression on it, besides the fact that I strongly signalled that I was more suspicious of you than of Gorta
like, if you are a villager here I literally do not understand how you got from point A to point B
(like my working theory here is that you’re a wolf who realized that you weren’t going to be able to get me to vote Gorta, but that you might be able to get cloned and Gorta to vote me, but if you do actually have actual progression on this read I’d love to hear it)
(this isn’t an OMGUS, I just actually think Appel’s read progression on me makes no sense)
The thing that changed is that PKR flipped V, so now one of my townreads have to be a wolf. I’ve said it time and time again that it’s not like you didn’t have any wolf equity, it’s that I just didn’t believe in it. I was ready to have the game end after concluding everyone else was town. I’m trying to re-evaluate, just like I’ve been doing with Gorta. If my conclusion was different, you could use this same argument with my progression on Gorta.
the issue I have with it isn’t that you changed your mind
the issue I have with it is that you changed your mind, for unclear reasons, after I started strongly suspecting you
how much longer do you expect to want to think about your vote? ideally I would like there to be a couple hours while you and whoever you vote thunderdome so everyone else can discuss it or alternatively so that I don’t have to stay up until 3 again, if you’re a villager and vote wrong
The things that have gotten me suspicious today are actually linked to the way you’re pushing me, and the sudden confidence you’re doing it with, whereas you were previously very conflicted. Now your first post is “I think Appel is 95%+ wolf” and going on from there, which really makes it seem like you just want to frame me.
Gorta, on the other hand, showed pretty clear thought process, but if I’m right with my theory that he wants us to fight with each other, then I shouldn’t let him be even if I thought it looked really good… I still haven’t gotten out of the bed.
All in all, right now I do think it’s Arete. I’m not going to vote yet, and at the very least, we’re waiting for Cloned.
Hi im here
Briefly
Very bad time to have a game when collegeapp due tmrw
Aaaaaaaaa
okay I finished my wallpost
basically
I was reviewing Appel’s Iso to try to make sure of how I felt on Appel vs. Gorta and Appel-side interactions with Light are making me feel worse about her slot than I already did
dividing this up into two main categories for organization’s sake
I want to be clear that my point here is not ‘Appel was wrong about Light, therefore Appel is wolf’, my point is about her specific thought process, and how she handled Light vs. other slots
Appel’s read on Light
so at the beginning of her Iso, she starts out by saying that she found some questionable things in Light’s Iso (see below)
similarly, she calls out Light’s read on her here for being kind of questionable and IIOA
however, she never really pushes Light on this beyond asking him some very softball questions, like ‘state your reads’
this post in particular will be important later
then we have this … post … in which she goes through and notes good points and bad points for Light in his first hundred posts. there are … several things about this that ping me
- a lot of the ‘good points’ for Light are kind of a stretch. Like, to give a few examples, she includes as good points the fact that he said it was suboptimal to cuddle a 3p, and the fact that he pinged Wazza about placing a vote (in a post where Light pinged every non-voter). Obviously not all of them are this bad, but I find it hard to believe that town!Appel legitimately thinks that ‘pinging every non-voter to tell them to vote, when one non-voter is a known wolf’ is town-AI. It feels like she’s trying to force herself to come out with a townread.
- the points that are bad for Light are mostly actually decent arguments! this will be important later. (obviously not all of them, but she does raise legitimately reasonable points for why some of what Light did was questionable).
- the wallpost only includes his first 100 posts, and stops right before we get into some of the things I found really questionable with Light. I questioned Appel about this at the time; I’m willing to give her the benefit of the doubt that she didn’t have enough time to analyze the rest of the posts, but.
- the wallpost literally does not make a conclusion on Light’s alignment
she did eventually give a conclusion about Light’s alignment, after I asked her to
in this post. The thing that bothers me here is that … if I read through her Iso on Light … then I think the arguments for him being scum are legitimately better than the arguments for him being town? like, maybe this is hindsight bias from the fact that I know Light flipped scum, but if I look at her Iso it does not look like an Iso that leads naturally to the conclusion that Light is town.
this interaction is meh, could see it coming from either alignment.
and then this one is another one I find concerning. remember all the times I wrote ‘see below’? this is the ‘below,’ because I’m really confused about how she got to Light’s townlean on her being the only thing she’s conflicted about, when she explicitly called him out for many more things.
How Appel handled the fact that other people were scumreading Light
Appel has several interactions that feel like she’s trying to talk people out of scumreading Light (tbf this might partially be confbias on my part)
like this one – I was pushing Light at the time, and I feel like she was trying to get me to come up with reasons to doubt the read
and this follow-up question
it’s not damning on its own but it’s super leading
the remaining four quotes aren’t nearly as actively bad, but they represent a weird amount of focus on Light (particularly the last one, the others could all go either way).
As far as I could tell, Light was the only person Appel treated in this way (despite the fact that he was allegedly part of her PoE). Like, if she reacted this way to every person who people were pushing, or even every person that people were pushing that she townread, I’d be like ‘yes, this checks out,’ but she didn’t, she only treated Light that way
and like
sure, it’s theoretically possible that Appel just happened to interrogate everyone about the flipped wolf in particular and try to make people doubt their reads on him by sheer coincidence, that is definitely a thing that villagers can do sometimes
but I don’t think that’s what happened