Vote Count
| Accused | Voters | Number |
|---|---|---|
| Moleland | Arete, Alice,Gorta,Datbird | 4/6 |
| cheese | Derps | 1/6 |
| Derps | Moleland | 1/6 |
| Light | Light | 1/6 |
| PKR | Surge | 1/6 |
| Gorta | Cheese | 1/6 |
| [Not Voting] | Appel, PKR, | 2 |
okay
so
one of the things I wanted to do today was try to work on reevaluating my reads, because ?probably? Leafia is dead over me for a reason
so I’m going to go through everyone on my List™ and write down why I was clearing them + if the clear is actually a good reason to clear them
Surge
Why was I clearing him: Surge has a stupidly obvious difference between his V and W metas that he’s ~never been able to accurately replicate as scum. This game pretty clearly falls into his town meta of ‘tunnelling villagers for bad reasons’.
Having written out that clear, do I think it is a good reason/still applies: yes.
Eli (Appel)
Why I was clearing Eli: He was posting a lot and seemed relatively free-flow-y/unconstrained, whereas as a wolf he tends to have a lot of trouble producing anything resembling meaningful content, or even not-meaningful content
Having written out that clear, do I think it’s a good reason/still applies: not really. After D1, Eli dropped off a lot, and Appel’s been effectively nonexistent. It’s fairly common for wolves on this site to start strong, or strong-ish, and drop off a lot over the following days (Eli’s dropoff also coincides with Wazza getting voted out, which ?probably? would have demoralized the scumteam)
Light
Why I was clearing Light: I was sheeping Alice Light seemed to have posting that was mostly fairly decent (which his posting as scum usually isn’t). I also was soft-clearing him for how he handled the Wazza CFD at EoD – I think scum there would usually have jumped on for cred if they weren’t going to do anything to try to stop the wagon.
Do I think these reasons are good/still apply: Light’s another slot that’s dropped off a lot (like, even if I look purely at activity, he has 8 posts today, which is a lot less than he had in the early game). I’d put this in a similar space to Eli, but a bit above Eli because he has slightly favorable Wazza interactions (albeit nothing unfakeable)
cloned
Why I was clearing cloned:
I wrote a wallpost on this one
I also think that his response when I asked him about his thoughts just post-Wazza-flip was super villagery, and his conviction on Gorta today is a good look for a player of his experience level
Do I think these reasons are good/still apply: I tried to think especially hard about this one, because it’s an easy explanation for the Leafia NK, but I think it’s pretty unlikely he’d be able to fake all of this, even if he wanted to. Separately, if he’s a wolf, he basically gave up on being townread by basically anyone else in the game to specifically pocket me (like, a lot of this is the same things other people are sussing him for), and I don’t think he could do that when instead he could just … kill me
Trochi (Dat):
Why was I clearing Trochi: I thought her interactions with Wazza near EoD pointed to her not having TMI on Wazza’s slot, and I thought Wazza spew looked good for her.
Do I think these reasons are good: the first one is good, the second one is sorta meh since Wazza is known to distance from his partners sometimes, but the first reason is still fairly decent. My biggest concern with Trochi is potential TMI on Conduit as V.
Additional notes: Trochi is Dat now, I’m basically volume-and-content-clearing Dat as he has fairly consistent volume tells (the one exception I can think of is JoaT9 when he had three other wolves pressuring him to post) (occasionally he’s been able to fake this on D1 so keep an eye on him over the next few days)
Gorta
Why was I clearing him: I thought he would have distanced more from Wazza since he has a tendency to basically just TMI all his partners when he’s scum
Do I think this reason is good: depends on how hard he was trying to pocket specifically me, I’ve commented before on the fact that he’s done this so in theory he could have used that to avoid commenting on him this time (like, seriously, he has zero interactions with Wazza) but I think probably he wouldn’t have
the thing cloned called him out for is very HMMMM but it’s sadly within his village range so I think I’m probably not voting there today, I’m not confident enough in a village read to try to stand in the way of this wagon but I think he’s probably town
Alice
Why was I clearing Alice:
Is this a good reason:
no neuts have flipped and we haven’t killed three wolves without the game ending so sure
PKR
Why was I clearing PKR: I thought the whole thing with emphasizing that my triplevoter plan was super important, and then not doing the triplevoter plan, and then when Alice was like ‘I feel like this is V!PKR’ saying that he was intentionally imitating his town meta for towncred, is too dumb to come from a wolf (especially one like PKR, who tends to be highly conscious of appearances)
Is this a good reason: no but I still think it’s true prrrrrobably? I kind of hate the ‘this is too dumb to come from scum’ argument but it’s reasonably accurate in my experience, and while there’s an obvious scum motivationf ro doing things for towncred I don’t see an obvious scum motivation for saying that you were doing things for towncred
Leafia and Conduit
dead town
Derps
Why was he in my PoE: because he hadn’t done anything
Has he done anything that should move him out of it: lol
Moleland:
Why was he in my PoE: Interactions with Wazza look bad (preflipping Wazza as scum and trying to tie people to him), view of the game looks relatively narrow and focused on getting a single person out
Has he done anything to get out of the PoE: …he largely hasn’t been actively expanding the PoE, which is a decent sign, I guess??
So where I’m at, after all of that:
Confident town:
Surge
cloned
DatTrochi
claimed 3p
Alice
Town with reservations
PKR
Light
Gorta
PoE
EliAppel
Derps
Mole
Im semi here, semi ghost hunting, but thats the poe im at so :wowee: but i want to know why u were clearing eli so early?
he was posting a lot and being free-flowy with his thoughts, both of which aren’t really consistent with what I’ve seen of his scum game (he did manage to post in SFoL 63, but all his posts sucked to the point that he got vigged N1)
he was Helen Harte in the anon game and … yeah
gonna take 20 mins as im doing a really hard map, after that im calling for the night for ghost hunting
Right now these are your strongest scumreads
2/3 of those are activity tells -.-
We have 2 scum left, who would you say is the most likely pairing?
I mean I mostly solve by trying to find villagers and solve by PoE, if someone isn’t posting then it makes it a lot harder to take them out of my PoE 
I don’t really like making pairings like that before the people in question have actually flipped but if I had to guess the scumteam right now I’d guess Mole + Appel/Eli, Mole is the player I find individually wolfiest and I think Mole/Appel makes more sense than Mole/Derps since Mole randomly jumped on Derps today in a way that didn’t really feel like distancing (like, I don’t think it 100 percent rules out a W/W pairing, but I think it makes it less likely)
Alright, I’m here. I’ve read some of the thread, but I’ll try not to waste time on wallposts.
First of all, I want to confimr that we have some kind of a consensus PoE, since EoD os in a few hours. Anyone?
Also @Aelin I’m sorry but I’d like you to state your reads again since I found some questionable things before posts went poof.
Current “consensus” PoE, with a few order changes and a few additions here and there
Arete has moved up a lot on my list but I don’t think we lynch them today
Can I interest you in a gorta lynch?
That, and this from earlier, for their quick jumping on a light push on Arete:
I recognize that it may have not been the best play at the time, but I think it’s pretty clear they were waiting for a chance to spin scum!Arete after NKA
I mentioned this in the wallpost, but Arete is a slight townlean for me with the addition that they’ll never be cuddled until the rest of the PlE is cleared up.
Is there any other reason than the flip-flopping? Have you made a case on him?
like arete a lot of this I guess u can say is free flowy i guess, but its mainly like nothing content, thats what I was having a problem with. Its basically nothing the iso
Says bad progression votes, and then says maybe there is and unvotes
this shit doesn’t make sense