Darling in the Franxx SFM - Game Over | Mafia Win

[Silviu200530]

Eh? I thought her pushes were genuine? I mean, they’re really a null to me.

[TheLukundo]

I dislike your Aelin vote, Chloe.

Why?

Not sure yet.

[Chloe]

i dont know if shes having a bad week or something but she has the most monotone iso on this goddamn planet and it feels like shes a straight up robot

i dont feel
anything

she just exists

its an empty nothingburger iso

why is she not getting put under the spotlight and pushed and shoved by wolves

[Chloe]

idc

[Chloe]

i’ll figure out how much i believe my read after i sleep on it

but i think issa hit tbh

[Silviu200530]

Watch out for what you say, they might be offended.

[Wisdom]

I’m back! Anything new? (Sorry I’m still very bad at knowing which way to catch up effectively)

[Wisdom]

Chloe! You’re here! Any new reads since last time or any progression on Helz/Guill?

[Chloe]

Hi!
I’m coming around on both Helz and Guill but definitely need to sleep on it
I’ve been in thread too long and I’m echo chambering in my own head which isnt helping much

I think min is a villager
I think aelin is a wolf
Both of these are explained in my recent posts

I’m honestly about to fall asleep bc im exhausted, sorry

Good night

[Wisdom]

I’m with you on min, I forgot about it but remembered after seeing Helz’ doc. She had a towny push on me d2.

No idea who Aelin is, so I should probably look that up

[Wisdom]

Read through Aelin’s ISO. Not w/w with Wiisp/Luku/Min but they are all likely town anyway.

[Wisdom]

All right I’ll vibe.

[Prophylaxis]

@WindwardAway

• I’m guessing Tilgarial is right and there’s at least one wolf on their wagon. It’s possible that it was a pure wagon and half the town jumped on Tilga for their sucky vote on me, but I think it indicates that I am misclearing someone. I’m facing a huge dilemma because I was townleaning all of the players wagoning them, so I guess I’m in deep shit now with my reads. Time for my paranoia to kick in (and everyone else’s paranoia about me to kick in). I’ll look at Proph, Guillo and Nika first, and Aelin afterward. I’m not going to tinfoil my reads on Zone or Blitz right now. I have reasons for reevaluating those slots in the order I listed, but I’ll keep that to myself until I’ve actually gone through and looked at them. What I will say is that, Proph’s comment on Blitz’s then-impending flip did not look great (Derps pointed this out first), and Guillo’s RT on Nika made me think of something that I’m gonna need to look into to evaluate more.

I also agree that there is at least one wolf, possibly two, on the Tilg wagon. Out of everyone on that wagon, I would look at re-evaluating or examining Nikamura, Zone, and Aelin.

I’ll need you to explain your Zone and Aelin reads - Zone has been kind of a massive blind spot this game for me because they are on at weird times and not many of their posts have moved the needle for me one way or another. I liked Aelin Yesterday because of their case on Wisp, but they have… somewhat dropped off today, plus it’s compounded by Wisp claiming Babysitter.

@WindwardAway

• Proph is right; Merc didn’t do much on D2. As I said in one of my last posts (when I voted Tilga), I started wondering if Merc holding onto her reads from D1 is indicative that she has a lack of TMI on the current thread state, as she was the only one who left her vote on Kaif. If I’m right about this, it’s >rand town-indicative. I’ll try to read around her slot today and see how other people are treating it. If she’s town, there’s scum on her wagon for sure, and possibly more on her wagon than on Tilga’s.

I was really trying to read into her posts on Day 2, but I couldn’t really come up with anything. I stuck to my Tilg vote because I thought this post was a potential mindset slip:

@Tilgarial

You haven’t really convinced me that i’m scum yet.
You’ve only used some actual reason sprinkled with arbitrary/misunderstood things and called it a case, while only taking in account my D1/first 115 posts, according to your own words

@WindwardAway

• Helz and Proph have both been letting me either steer the thread or encouraged me to lead the town so people can follow, and considering I was wrong about PKR, Tilgarial, and am probably also wrong about Merc, I’m getting a huge red flag from them right now (moreso Helz than Proph). Usually when I end up surviving for a while in the game, it’s because my reads absolutely suck and I’m a very loud and very wrong townie. I’m not that surprised; my early reads are often not that great, but I can usually straighten them out later on.

Talk to me about how I have been letting you steer the thread/encouraged you to lead the town? I thought I’ve been pretty aggressive about using you as a rock to guide my reads of specific players (min, for example) but I don’t think I’ve ever done either of the things you’ve said.

@WindwardAway

• Derps was kind of right when he said if Blitz is town, Proph could be scum (and I know he was more certain than I am, but I’m giving him credit for making me consider that Proph might not actually be town). See posts #5334 and #5350 for reference. While I think Lukundo is right about Proph being decently solvey in the thread, I can’t help but wonder about his votes. Proph moved his vote from Blitz to Tilga which reads as somewhat opportunistic.

?

How was it opportunistic? I literally said that I got cold feet on Blitz because of their reactions to my questions at EoD, and I voted Tilg because I thought they mindset slipped + you wanted people to vote for them. You telling me to vote Tilg at EoD yesterday then shading my vote as opportunistic here is kinda skeeving me out, not gonna lie.

@WindwardAway

vote Tilgarial instead because they seemed quite happy to vote me when you and Derps started the wagon on me

@WindwardAway

• Post #5397 by Helz, in reply to Lukundo, is something I think could come from a wolf. I’m thinking wolf!Helz could be whiteknighting me and encouraging me to push my incorrect reads so that he can hide behind looking analytical but not having to push agenda himself. All it really takes is one loud, wrong town player to allow the scum to coast off their reads, and they can fly somewhat UTR. If it’s between Helz and Lukundo, I’d guess Helz is the wolf. I also think there are some weird associations around Helz’s slot that I’ve been looking at, and I’m trying to figure out whether they’re useful or not. I believe if Helz is a wolf, he’s very likely distancing from at least one of his partners and has possibly already tried to bus them. He has the potential to go very far in the game as scum, especially if he hardbusses a teammate for towncred.

This, I can see. I had Helz as one of the townreads I was considering re-evaluating. I previously liked his process with regards to Lukundo, but I think it is fakeable and his posts/stance today I am not particularly favorable of.

[Prophylaxis]

I have liked Merc’s posts at SoD3. I also think if Merc is scum, her team doesn’t kill Kaif in the night based on how Merc tied her entire D2 identity into pushing him.

@TheLukundo

BTW I have Prop as my second strongest townie in the game. I don’t think they flip scum

Luk, can you talk to me about why your townread on me is so strong? I honestly don’t understand and/or forgot you talking about your read on me. Not really sure why people are townreading me right now tbh (though this was 1000 posts ago, so)

@WindwardAway

Not just that. I’m like 99% sure he’s left his scum meta actually.

Could you talk to me about Zone’s scum/town meta more in-depth? I barely have any experience with him as a player.

–

I’ve enjoyed Chloe’s posts since they replaced in, but one thing that I am unsure comes from Chloe wolf is this line:

@Chloe

Trying to figure out how much of this is a clash of personality/playstyle and i’ll get back to it tomorrow
Hopefully get to talk to the guy in realtime

I don’t know their meta, but I feel like scum!Chloe would have a much more agenda driven push on Helz and it would be more… binary? Instead they list off a bunch of concerning things about Helz and then follow it up with this sort of deliberation about playstyle that I feel like… would not bother to enter scum!Chloe’s head or they would not stopgap themselves like this. Especially with this post later (and Chloe’s subsequent re-evaluation on his slot):

@Chloe

I realize my read of Helz is a bit unfair
As I’m not taking into account context of the entire game and instead honed in on individual posts that i despise

Will take a step back and try to read ~everything soonish but goddamn im so strapped for time lol

It’s kind of a weak read but I saw similar things in Helz where I thought they were really wolfy/fake in their first couple of posts but I had to remind myself that they come from a completely different mafia site than I am used to. I guess a mini-mind meld is the word I’d use here?

[Prophylaxis]

@Chloe

The way she went about it feels like Real Wind Anxiety
Reminds me of a past game we played (shortnight 2) which is partially why i TR her

She likes to (attempt to) powerwolf but shes usually really damn obvious about it
and at least one of her partners would have been bussed by now

This doesnt feel like her average wolfgame

People who know Windward’s scum meta, @Chloe: Could you run through how Windward approaches the game as mafia, and do you think that Windward is in her wolf range?

I’m like, 900 posts away from 7000 but her shade on me made me pretty uncomfortable and I have zero experience with her scum game. If this is her wolf game, then I would be extremely extremely impressed, but I need to know if this within her range or not.

Talk to me about her average wolfgame and why you don’t think it’s manifesting in this one? Can you give me anything more substantial than “this doesn’t feel like her wolfgame”/“Reminds me of a past game we played (shortnight 2)”?

@WindwardAway

tbh I think I have a somewhat foolproof way of gauging Proph’s alignment, but I obviously can’t out it, and if I die sometime in the near future then it’s futile lol

I want to know more

@Wisdom

Thanks!
Guill keeps screaming wolf to me but I think Helz is the better target right now.
Helz and Guill voting together gives me bad vibes as that’s not w/w but… I wolf read them individually so don’t really know what to do with that.

Wisdom, not sure if you’ve mentioned it, but why exactly do you think Guill is a wolf? You mentioned this:

@Wisdom

Guillotina likes to do fancy stuff when he’s wolfing and focuses more on solving the game (and being omgus) as town. I read through the first 50 posts from him and did not remind me of his town game. First I thought his openwolfing was a 3p sign but thinking about it I’ve seen him do that in another game and I don’t think he was prepared for me to join here to call that out (no one else here played that game).

…but I thought that his first 50 posts were strongly OMGUS-reminiscent because he was scumreading me for pressuring him. What sorts of “fancy stuff” does Guill do as a wolf and what is he doing in this game that indicates that he is fpsing? (Fancy Play Syndrome)

–
Not understanding from Guill why they think Chloe is a wolf. I understand Erika was sketchy, but I’ve liked most of Chloe’s posts since they’ve replaced in? They show a pretty active solving mindset IMO.

@WindwardAway

Derps was dead convinced I was a wolf and decided to tunnel me, so I took the chance to see if I could get wolves to jump on my wagon, but Silviu voted me first lmao. Then Tilgarial jumped on my wagon, and that’s why I thought they might actually be scum. So it was an extremely poorly executed RT because Derps is almost definitely town if he tunnels me like that, Silviu is confirmed town, and Tilga flipped town, so all I did was fuck up and draw 3 townies onto myself.

This is something I’m trying to wrap my brain around - does scum WW invite people to vote her at EoD, risking herself being lunched, and then forcing the lunch on someone who voted her? Or is this just an actual genuine Thought that town Windward had?

@Chloe

but feels like villa admittance (and also completely unnecessary to say there as a wolf if you think you’re flipping in like 5 seconds)

Different perspective here: I was reading this as “scum!Blitz giving up” because wolves on my site have a tendency to admit that they are scum before flipping/they admit that they’re scum during the Twilight phase. So when Blitz said that they should have claimed a killing role, I thought they were lolcatting :shrug:

@Chloe

good post
not taking advantage of the terrible wagon to shove it in derps’ face for a potentially easy cfd

My issue with this point is that one of the reasons why the Tilg wagon blew up (in addition to Nika casing Tilg) was that they voted Windward. Kind of struggling to find the words to say this, but - why do you think this is a good look for Windward, when Windward helped in CFDing Tilg?

@Chloe

hit me with all your blitz/merc reads tyvm

I thought Blitz was null/Not Town because they were relatively low impact minus a readwall for most of Day 2. I was pretty set to lunch Wisp Yesterday but he claimed Babysitter, then Lemonfairy dropped a huge case on Blitz that I thought was good + came from town. I was pressuring Blitz but kept trying to engage with them because I noticed that they didn’t have a vote on anybody when discussion and the lunch was in doubt. They responded to me in a way that seemed non-malicious/like a townie working through their reads and I got cold feet. I then thought they scumclaimed but their explanation was okay, hence why I moved off of them onto Tilg.

I’ll need to read through Blitz’s contributions today before I can settle on a read but I’d be pretty annoyed/miffed if they managed to fool me.

Merc I was also trying to get a handle on at EoD2 but I couldn’t really find anything because their ISO was relatively low content. I liked their posts at SoD3 and again I think that a scumteam with Merc in it doesn’t kill Kaif. I thiiiiiiink they’re town but my reads are honestly still all over the place.

Also trying to think if scum Windward actually moves off of town Merc when she could have said nothing and scored a free mislunch?

@WindwardAway

see, the only people who weren’t townreading me by EoD yesterday were Derps (who was pushing me), Wisdom (who moved me up to a null), Tilga (who was reading me off paranoia), and Proph (who also had me at a null as i recall).

I was still townreading you at EoD2. Today I am more paranoid of you because I think that it’s likely that there are deep wolves and they are snowing me + I don’t know your wolf meta.

@WindwardAway

I’m looking far ahead and what I saw last night was that I was being encouraged by scum to push my towny but bad reads, and they likely planned to tinfoil me close to LyLo for still having wrong reads and also still being alive. It’s not the first time that’s happened, and it won’t be the last, but I’d rather be loud, correct, and night killed than loud, incorrect, and lose us the game in LyLo.

Kiiinda like this post though? This anxiety/worry feels real coming from Windward here.

[Wisdom]

I thought his whole “yeet me I’m wolf” ordeal was part of fpsing that I’ve seen him do as wolf before. And I found his reaction to my read on him very weird and inconsistent compared to when I’ve tried to find him and he’s been towning. (And he hasn’t nearly OMGUS’ed or pushed me enough compared to what he tends to do as wolf, from what I’ve seen)

I do like this post though. Here have a town read.

[Prophylaxis]

@Guillotina

Ive been reading Helz and i think he is just town.

/unvote Helz @osieorb18

Like ive been reading closely for a hint of TMI and he is either really good as scum or he is just one of us.

Can you substantiate this read more? What post(s) from Helz specifically show a lack of TMI and therefore towninesss?

@Nikamura

From one perspective Zone’s EoD looked a bit opportunistic. He was oddly relaxed and posted some popcorn emojis. But from another, he was the one doing the vote counts and making the game state easy to digest. Also he prevented a tie, which to me is a good thing because no flip = no info.

Who’s pinging me is Blitz.

the ladies I still town lean.

Tell me specifically what is pinging you about Blitz? Just did a whole breakdown of their EoD and I’m still not sure on that one.

I really don’t understand why Guill is voting Chloe in every one of their posts.

@Chloe

wisdom’s ISO is lacking in terms of meat, and they throw out quite a few reads with little explanation (do you prefer she/her or they/them? apologies @Wisdom)

but if im gunna be honest i kinda townread the lack of shits they give
they dont care to look smooth or have reasoning behind every little thing, and i think its >rand v simply based off of my (limited) experience with wisdom, as well as the fact that their posts don’t feel methodical or artificial in any way
the way they just toss stuff into the thread reminds me somewhat of marl when he just says whatever the hell is on his mind
my only true qualm is with how they approached my slot and the random sheeping

i wish there was more to go off of
but
they kinda just
look and smell like a villager
sometimes its that easy

(i should take a look at whoever tf they replaced though too tho)

Mmmm okay, I’m gonna chew on this read.

I kind of don’t have a read on them? I had a slight town read on Nightingale for being competent + having similar reads as me, and then they replaced out. I had a pretty negative instinctual reaction to Wisdom because they looked like they were neutral hunting, but I should probably reread them to figure out where they’re coming from. Plus Wind had a read where they were pushing against thread consensus upon replacing in?

@Chloe

@Blitz oh my god your pfp is so cute

idk what it is but i love it

I see Blitz is a cultured Runeterra gamer.

–

I really don’t know what to make of Guill vs Wind. I’m townreading Wind with heavy reservations while Guill has just been going deep on voting for both Chloe and Wind, which I am not a huge fan of. I was liking Guill a fair bit Day 2, but today they’ve just kind of went off the rocker with the vanilla + PGO claim.

I don’t know how to evaluate the PGO claim along with Wisp. If we don’t have a vig, then two conditional killing roles makes sense in a 21 player game? I would still balance the Babysitter like a doc though, so shrug.

The setup designer in me feels like there shouldn’t be two roles which directly punish the wolves for killing them, but it’s osie, so

@Nikamura

I feel like Wind has valid points on Guilly and Guilly has valid points on wind ._.

but I feel like the game state rn is missing the forest for the trees. We need to resolve Blitz and Merc. I lean town on merc, so I’m voting Blitz. These are the more important flips as far as I’m concerned. Idk why I feel like everyone is playing a different game that I am.

Is there a particular reason why we “need” to resolve these players? In particular I still do not understand why you think Blitz is mafia. Why are you not uhh. Actively Questioning Blitz here to get a better read on them, or trying to engage with people who are townreading that slot currently?

@WindwardAway

I’m paranoid there are at least two powerwolves steering the thread and encouraging loud townies to push their incorrect reads while also pocketing them
I am always paranoid about being pocketed as town so I don’t really know if there’s a better reason to think this, other than knowing that I’m wrong and that I’m town
I have stupid reads which are wrong, as proven by the wagons so far.
Wolves are definitely smarter than me, so I suspect they’ve been encouraging me to lead the town because it isn’t something I wanted to do, but I was prompted to by a couple of players.
Town PRs shouldn’t be claiming but I’ve seen claims all over the place, and I think at least some were motivated by scum fake-RTing to elicit a claim out of them.
The wolves use this information by not prioritizing the town PRs as kills for various reasons (either low-priority roles or something that could harm the scumteam), and push them during the day instead because it’s “suspicious” that they weren’t night killed.
Town suspicion on the town PRs causes them to possibly wagon them, which is exactly what the wolves want.

This type of worry/anxiety just feels genuine coming from Wind. The mentions of paranoia don’t really feel forced, and these kinds of thoughts permeate throughout her posts for most of the Day. If she as scum can put herself into the mindset of a townie and write something like this, then props to her. I had some inklings of paranoia earlier on in my read through but honestly? If Wind is scum, I’m fine with losing to her. She’s put in a serious amount of effort into the game, and I think her being scum would land somewhere in my top 10 scum perfomances I’ve ever seen (up there with Askthepizzaguy in Final Fantasy Mafia II and ladd in R O C Ks. If you get these obscure game references, please DM me)

@WindwardAway

this game would be so much simpler if i were content to just fall back into wolves’ pockets and continue pushing incorrect reads and then get voted out for being incorrect

but it’s against my nature to let that happen, and I hate it lol

Also kinda like this?

@Mercenary

I’m getting the same gut feeling of wild west FM where iirc the wolves were all inactive/LHF players and town lost themselves into over-analyzing to oblivion

Who do you think in this game fits this description? Do you think Guill is low-hanging fruit?

aaaaa i’m actually done??

[Wisdom]

This was in response to Prophylaxis, dunno why it didn’t stick.

[Helz]

Statements like this really ping me. I can git the bit about Aelin/Wiisp not W/W but I do not remember you townreading Wiisp. Yet you call 4 people

@Wisdom

all likely town

like its nothing. This kind of handing out blankets of town reads without reasoning is not towny behavior imo.

@Gap Between Confidence and Reads

Because they already know the players alignment they have to ‘make up reasoning’ to justify whatever position they take on the player they are talking about. This creates a situation where their conclusion is not based upon their reasoning. This gap can be identified by looking to see if their level of confidence matches their reasoning (Its often easier to identify this gap in their town reads, Presented absolute certainty is a good indicator)

@Handing out easy Town credit/reads

Mafia players naturally have a tendency to throw out town credit with much less reasoning than they do as Town players. This is because there is a tendency to require less information to confirm a held belief than to establish a one. Additionally veteran scum players recognize the natural tendency for players to think along the same lines. The player who just got town read knows they are town and therefor they exercise the same bias when looking to see if the reasoning justified the conclusion. But as a 3rd party townie you can identify this because you do not know that either players alignment (or if your experienced enough and maintain the knowledge that their perspective shouldn’t just be confirming a known alignment you may be able to recognize it being done to you.) You can also factor in buddying/pocketing efforts although it is not the core reason this tell exists in my opinion.

Two potential tells in that small post right there.

[Helz]

This is what I was replying to ^^