Discussion: 3 of the same claim doesn't make them more suspicious

#101

you just described american politics in a nutshell

1 Like
#102

Ok what are the odds of a player being starting scum? 3/15
What are the odds that none of 3 players are starting scum? 12^3/15^3

#103

ok so why not do this with… any 3 random players

I always exe multiples of 5 because statistically at least 1 of them is starting scum

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#104

Priestess, why are you avoiding answering my post? Is it because you realize that 3 people claiming the same class isn’t a good reason to slaughter away?

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#105

“Exing the most sus person of 15 players” leads into a Fool win
Maid is not a Fool claim. Therefore if you use this method, you are save from fools
And you have a high chance to get the MM out instead of Any Evil

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#106

By saying this, I will now exclusively claim Maid as fool and Sheriff as Maid.

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#107

i’ve seen a few blatantly fake maid claims flip fool (def uncommon though)

:newspaper_roll:

4 Likes
#108

ive seen this wrong in action multiple times

#109

Almost any BD class is a fool claim.

A few exceptions are:

Prince
Good King

#110

I stand corrected
But yea you see what I mean. Common fake claims are more likely to flip evil than uncommon fake claims

#111

one of the more potent fool strats is to claim prince and then suspiciously switch to a hunter claim and be hopefully CC’ed

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#112

don’t leak my n1 convert strats please

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#113

I legit want to see a fool claim Good King and stick with it throughout their game

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#114

my n1 convert strat is to ruthlessly bus the entire scumteam as soon as im converted and post “im bussing u” in twilight so i get no ban

2 Likes
#115

:newspaper_roll: :newspaper_roll: :newspaper_roll:

image

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#116

and then get exed d4 because it’s hard to keep ur mystic claim as new assasin :wink:

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#117

Here’s some fun math.

Lets say for the sake of argument that 25% of maid claims are fake. And lets go on to say that this is higher than the average (it would be because Obs, Butler ect are rarely faked).

If there is only 1 maid claim they are BD 75% of the time, however if there is 3 maid claims then there is a 58% chance that at least one of them is fake. If more maids are faked than other possible fake claims then this combination of 3 classes is more worth looking into another set of 3 players, even if individually they are all probably telling the truth.

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#118

Yeah but for example let’s say that

25% of maids are fake
20% of sherrifs are fake
20% of princesses are fake

If there is 1 of each claimed(and a flipped sherrif so the sherrif isn’t a garunteed one)
Individually they are all telling the truth most likely but group them together and that group contains x% amount of scum.

It isn’t about the fact that there are 3

It’s the fact that maid is a common fake evil class

Again, A or B claiming maid does not effect the legitimacy of C’s claim.

#119

It’s not that A and B effects the odds of C. Just that the odds of A + B + C is obviously higher than the individual components, making them prime targets for PoE.

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#120

Anyways though, taking a step back from pure statistics, this perception actually makes the first claimer for a class the most sus, because scum will actively avoid claiming classes which a lot of BD are already claiming.

As fun as statistics is, fake claims are not random

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