Discussion: 3 of the same claim doesn't make them more suspicious

#121

yes this is true, and if you knew in advance that at least 2 chronos would spawn, a third is not more suspicious.

however, seeing 3 when 1 or 2 were not predetermined does make them more suspicious, as 3 chronos is an unlikely event.
out of all the ways a setup can roll, many more of them have 2 chronos than 3. this makes it more likely that at least one of them is faking.
this is of course assuming it is random chance, aka not arbitrary odds, and that no other infromation is affecting this

however an important bit is that the effect this third chrono has is the same across the group that is, if two chronos just claimed, and then a third one claimed they should all be equally suspicious.
however this holds true to some complications. say that the first 2 chronos are fully confirmed somehow (as in, truly 100% confirmed, there is no way even theoretically that they could be faking), then the added suspicion the third gets is still the same. since the other two are fully confirmed, that makes that added suspicion 0 (or at least it should be 0), making this new third chrono no less suspicious than if neither of the first two ever even claimed.

In situations such as these, order and simultaneity/universality (theres a word that combines those two i just cant put my finger on it) of information usually plays a significant role

its like, if you flip two coins and they land heads, the last one is still just as likely to land heads as it is tails, but its still more likely to flip 2 heads than it is to flip all 3 heads. if you already see two and know they’re heads, than the third is 50/50, but the event of all 3 is still 1 in 8 (versus the 1 in 4 of flipping 2 heads)

#122

if you have three players, there’s one way for them to spawn as all Maids-or-whatever and the ways for two to spawn as Maids and one as a Princess

this probably affects something about the odds of a given one being fake but I’m too lazy to figure out how

#123

It doesn’t effect the odds by itself.

Ultimately what effects the odds of a group containing a scum is a factor of the individual members being scum. Since baring artificial alterations all combinations of classes are equally unlikely.

#124

What are you guys even arguing about at this point

#125

I want to join but I’m just confused now

#126

Maths

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#127

it doesnt change the odds.

the only way it affects the odds of them faking is by the odds of it occuring.
say you give it a 5% chance that a scum trying to fake would do this. but if math says theres only a 1% chance of this occuring . (hypothetical situation, not necessarily this one, numbers are just to show the point), then suddenly them faking becomes the more likely option.
but its still something to take into consideration.
and just because one event doesnt influence the probability of another, that a combined outcome cant be more or less likely based off one of them. just because flipping one coin, or rolling like d20s or something, doesnt mean the getting two heads or two 20s isnt an unlikely outcome, less so than other, more general cases, such as “at least one lands heads” or “the sum of the two dice is at least 20”, which is the equivalent of two classes rolling different classes, rather than the same one. there are many more outcomes where the two classes are different than when they are the same even though each individual outcome is still equally likely.

#128

such maths much wow

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