thank you icibalus
very cool
if I get spoilers then continuing to tunnel Marshal would be spewy for all the uninformed people
well yeah but my point is we don’t need them because if we’re wrong marshal is a bad player, not “we suck at reading”
I choose to have enough faith in Marshal to believe that he’s having a really good wolf game, rather than having one of his worst village games in a long time
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get the algorithm
@Marshal
You don’t even understand who the fuck you’re dealing with. I have advanced degrees in statistics
and computer science and I’ve created a simple program with an advanced algorithm that I’ve been working on for years. I have read and tracked over 600 forum mafia games, recording every fencesit, every association, every scumtell. I have over 50 documented, specific forms and versions of scumtells and towntells, and at this point I can just skim a thread and put it into my machine. I have reduced the cacophonous lies of forum mafia into a pure, beautiful mathematical formula, and it’s led me to literal hundreds of wins.
Why do I think you’re scum? I don’t deign to think about you myself. Instead, I thought about how to create a program to know mathematically whether you are scum. I don’t need to think about you, because my algorithm has determined that you are scum to an 87% certainty. You cannot beat those numbers at this stage in the game. We’re talking about a mere 13% chance that you are a town member so monumentally bad at this game that you fooled a computer program that has successfully identified over 500 unique mafia players as scum with over 96% accuracy. Your only defense, in other words, is that you are so naturally scummy that you’re an outlier.
Whether you’re town or mafia, this is a message from mathematics – you are bad at this game. You have played so scummy that a perfectly objective process has labeled you as scum. Whether that makes you bad at playing your specific rolecard or bad in general, there is no question that behaving like scum means you have not performed well. Consider this a welcome wakeup call, as hundreds have before you: If a player decides you’re scum, it’s possible you just got unlucky, but if a computer program can be that certain of your alignment, there are some serious holes in your game, because it means you’re scum in an objective sense, rather than a subjective one. For that reason, I’m willing to roll that die and take that 13% risk, because even if there’s a small chance you might be town, there’s not even a remote chance that you’re good.
This was so bad I had to delay until EoD to hope the wolves and/or extremely unco-operative villagers would be offline and the people who tried to kill Marshal EoD would
But unfortunately Jane & sulit were there
He’s not flipping Town
I had the entire mafia team by EoD D2
The only person I think I let off was Mist believing he could be a wrong villager
