someone asked why kai was in the votecount if his vote was negated by his pr. this was exactly my theory btw
have they messaged you at all, cause we havent seen much from them. Just trying to see if she has any gamestate opinions
There has been one message in our Hydra chat from them.
Fairly sure =/= know. Why did Marshal receive a Mango, when they openly claimed?
I dont like being shaded for not having a PR. Itās mech talk and dumb AF.
"le marshal doesnāt have le post restriction, that means scum because mechanics are my bae.
let me rephrase.
what fruit do you have, because i know you have one
dont corrupt all of us for their actions.
Even if I grant you that I have a fruit, Iām not revealing it to you in public.
mechanics talk is dangerous here. I stopped hardpushing PKReistess because their claim was confirmable or scum KP.
And pushing me for that reason is total bull. Itās either a red herring or has reason, either way, letās look at associations and actions.
i didnt push you for it. ive said that im fine with it.
and mechanics arent dangerous if done right. this is and has been my stance
And yes, i shot jgoes(and it was the only death) but PoE was tight and it was maxwell/Monowolfie/Jgoes.
I considered each for a while, went with monowolfie, and then switched to jgoes about 4 hours before EOD because priestess had some comments that looked like she was pocketing jake(which I pointed out in-thread)
I honestly think that thereās a chance that there is no scum who were affectable by my slankvig(They probably all knew and either were already fine or hyperposted to get out of it) But i narrowed down PoE and at least we have that slot resolved(and mine, to an extent, but there was only one kill and I donāt think scum attacked jgoes)
im going to have to ask you for some details on that slankvig. you dont need to expand upon your answer/s but do answer them. simple yes/nos are fine
does it work by a hard minimum post limit (i.e. āyou can vig anyone with less than x postsā)
are you told that people in general have prās?
does it work by a percentage (i.e. "you can vig anyone with less than x% of their pr posts)
Yes i understand that.
but if we find out that scum was roleblocked or some shit then i am somewhat resolved.
It is less that 10 posts so 9 or under(I think i said this before)
also I am not told that people have PRās(also said this before)
Priestess spew analysis/EoD VCA analysis:
VCA
Typo-corrected vote count:
{PKR/Priestess} - {Geyde/Luxy}, Derps, Simon, Marshal, Nerbins, {Arete/Disquieted}
Nerbins - {Jake/Alice}, Maxwell, Astand, {PKR/Priestess}
Kai - Merc, Shurian
{Arete/Disquieted} - {PoisonedSquid/Vulgard}, {Firekitten/Katze}
Marshal - Kai
Simon - Datbird
{Jgoes/Chemist} - Maximus
First thing I looked at was the probability of a bus vote on Priestess. I think itās very unlikely that {Geyde/Luxy} were bussing; they were in a fairly strong position re:getting townread and they really didnāt need to start a last-minute CFD onto a scumbuddy to solidify that position. The hidden-votes thing makes analyzing the rest of the votes more complicated since the mafia probably wouldnāt know how many votes everyone is at but I already townread Derps and donāt think heād be the second voter on her wagon since it took some discussion before we settled on her lynch. Simon also seems like probably not bussing due to his extremely nonchalant attitude at the end of the day ā if his scummate were going to be the lynch, I would expect him to be much more nervous. I looked into the possibility of Marshal being a bus, like {Geyde/Luxy} had suggested, but I came to the conclusion that it probably wasnāt ā I donāt think Marshal is likely to hard-bus on D1 (when I was scum with him in LotR he did some distancing, but not super strong distancing) and when I looked at a couple of Priestessās scum games for comparison, I found that she mostly avoided interacting with her scummates, so I think Marshal is probably clear here as well no matter how much I hate the Jgoes shot.
ā¦Anyways, this part was supposed to be VCA, not analyzing Priestessās entire spew. Last vote other than us on Priestess is Nerbins, and heās the one Iām least confident about. Heās the second wagon, so how I look at this VC depends a lot on whether itās V/W or W/W wagons.
At first I was going to semi-clear Nerbins based on Priestessās vote on him, but when I re-read her Iso I noticed this post:
This post makes me worried that she could have switched to full-on antispew mode before EoD, if she thought she was being lynched.
Basically, if Nerbins was V, that means scum thought Priestess is savable. I talked with Disquieted about it and we concluded that in that scenario thereās very likely to be one more scum on the Nerbins wagon, but itās probably not entirely scum (since wolves wouldnāt be that obvious). Iāll discuss the specific people involved more below. If Nerbins is W, that increases the odds of votes on her being bus votes (though I still donāt really see anything but Nerbins as a likely bus vote).
Not really sure what to make of the other, smaller wagons.
Last thing to note about the VC is that anyone on PKR/Priestessās wagon could have sent it to rand by voting Nerbins over Priestess. This moderately increases my townread of people on the Priestess wagon, though not by all that much compared to being on there in the first place, since vote counts are hidden.
Spew analysis of Priestess/PKR
Well, we figured out that that flip spewed Jgoes as likely town due to Priestessās meta, but itās too late for that now. Would like an explanation from @Marshal for why he went with that shot anyway (Luxy/Geyde were thinking the same thing around EoD, itās not just a weird quirk of how I read Priestess).
Starting with this even though itās not first chronologically because itās decent scaffolding for the rest of the spew analysis here. Rule of threes suggests that at least one of his scumreads ({Vulgard/Squid}, Jake, and Marshal) is scum with them, and given that Iām strongly townreading {Vulgard/Squid} and Marshal is spewed clear from PriestessKRās flip, that points to Jake. {Jake/Alice} was also on the Nerbins wagon with that slot.
Other than that, Iām looking more closely at the nulls and tier 6. I townread everyone in 8 and 7 is a dead townie. I also just noticed that Maxwell isnāt in the list at all.
More things that slot said on {Jake/Alice}:
(note that Iām pretty sure this is just a typo for Jgoes)
Priestessās posts here about Jake ping me very strongly. None of them contain any meaningful engagement with the content of his posts and the random inexplicable āwhereās Aliceā at the beginning of a wallpost on Marshal feels to me like scum whoās been told they should interact with their scumteam and is forcing themself to do so. PKRās read on Jake is also incredibly hedgy and trying to avoid taking a stance ā thereās some weak shading, but all very qualified, and he never pressures Jake for more. Jakeās wall is harder to quote into here but it feels to me like heās engaging less with {Priestess/PKR} than he does with some of the other people. Biggest thing giving me pause is the āhow dare you pressure newbie Jakeā thing, which gives me whiteknighty vibes, but other than that the associations here look really bad for Jake.
Merc was one of the top townreads for both heads of the Hydra. Neither of them are the put-a-scumbuddy-as-top-townread type, from what Iāve seen; it feels more like TMI than anything else. This might partially be confbias because I was townreading Merc so strongly.
Looking now at Maxi (n.b. ignore this all if Astandās peek turns out to be real):
and as I mentioned before, Priestess sticks him in null. Meanwhile, Maxi on that slot:
Again, neither half really wants to take a stance on the other half here. Once again, the mild, heavily qualified scumlean without a real justification is pinging me about the possibility of a likely Maxi/{PKR/Priestess} wolfteam.
This comes at the end of a long wallpost on Dat. I ā¦ am leaning towards Dat V over the wallpost, even though I was scumreading him yesterday; Priestess is engaging a lot more with him than she normally does with her scummates. Itās not enough to call him clear, but I donāt think he should be the lynch for today.
Thereās some shading on Astand, Iām not going to summarize all of it at this point because I donāt want this post any longer and I was reading Astand strongly V anyway.
Last, this is a silly read but
is pushing me slightly towards V on Nerbins. Priestess doesnāt seem the sort to ping her scumbuddies in-thread to talk about what they were doing in scumchat even if she does do that with her scumreads when sheās town.
Response to Marshal
He ended up settling on Maxi as his target to resolve to, actually. Iām scumreading Maxi by association at this point, but, like, if youāre going to lock us as scum for that you should definitely be looking at Maxi there as well.
As scum Priestess tends to try to go more UTR in most ways (itās sort of complicated) ā but, for instance, you can look at the C9 turbo, where she didnāt want to push anyone all game. The fact that she was the only person questioning you there when everyone else seemed to be siding with you made her stick out more than she normally does deliberately as scum.
wow gosh itās almost like you were OMGUSing
Like, youāre clear for now, but if you donāt want people to accuse you of OMGUSing then ā¦ donāt OMGUS ā¦
Yep, I was in fact defending that slot.
This was actually about you calling Priestess a liar for saying that you didnāt soft. Which, like, I acknowledge that you explained your soft and it does seem to exist, but I wasnāt wrong that calling her a liar there was an overreaction.
ā¦you know what, Iām going to let everyone else here judge whether āMarshal called Priestess a liar for things that were misinterpretations at worst, and hard-pushed her on that basisā is poor logic.
I can explain why Luxy/Geydeās logic and arguments were better than yours if you really want me to but I donāt know if I can do it without being insulting.
If I were scum and wanted to defend Priestess, literally all I would have needed to say was āwe have half an hour, we shouldnāt do a CFD because itāll split the votes.ā
Random miscellaneous stuff
Iām basically ignoring the āthere could be an SKā argument, I donāt think Eevee would stick one into a game intended to teach people to learn. Would consider reevaluating if Marshalās shots keep being terrible.
Night-kill wise, the most probable thing to me is that scum went for a player who was protected. I donāt actually think W!Marshal would plan to indefinitely cover for a slank vig by using the factional on it, so Iām dismissing that theory.
We performed or attempted to perform an action last night and did not receive a fruit.
tl;dr, for people who donāt want to read a 2000-word wallpost:
- {Luxy/Geyde} town, Merc town, Astand still probably town, Marshal town with terrible logic, Simon and Derps likely town from VCA + general attitude, {Jake/Alice} and Maxi likely scum, more confident on {Jake/Alice} than Maxi
- My current towncore is {Luxy/Geyde}, Merc, Astand, Marshal, Simon, Derps, Kai, {Vulgard/Squid}, and Shurian. This leaves the PoE at Datbird, {Katze/Firekitten}, Maxwell, {Jake/Alice}, Maxi, and Nerbins. If we assume I didnāt misclear anyone then this is an extremely tight PoE if we assume normal amounts of wolves (4-5 for an 18p game).
Also just gonna say that disquieted has a very similar holier-than-thou attitude which is honestly getting on my nerves.
āAh yes even though i just told you that you were wrong and bad yesterday and you werent, you are still wrong and bad and so im just gonna ignore youā
This is just aā¦ personal attack. just like priestess calling me a meanie for daring to question jake
ah yes i, the ultimate intellectual, can specifically tell you what of marshalās points are actually right and which of them are wrong because marshal is bad.
Also your post yesterday rubbed me the wrong way because you said my push was
Disquietedcrediter. Like I get genuine criticisms of me as a player, but this is douchey discrediting for douchey discreditingās sake.
fucking sue me. I want things to happen! oh no! whatās wrong with me
Cut the crap, have some respect. I might have a bloated personality but i get shit to actually happen. You know what was going on before my jgoes push? nothing. You know what went on after? A ton of associations and the lynch of a wolf.
Why are people scumreading me? Is it because I voted for someone who I thought was scum? Or is it because Priestess was defending me? Defending a town is also a way to pocket them. Just because Priestess was trying to associate with me does not automatically make me scum. Youāre being quite narrow minded. Consider why Priestess would defend me, instead of asserting that Iām scum because Priestess was scum.
