You gutread me on the last day of LOTRFM when everyone else TR’ed me.
You were the only person pushing for my death d3 in looming threat(and ya pushed hard), despite everything else.
Maybe you are just good at soulreading scum me, but you are pretty good at that.
I make thought out posts when I Decide to, i enjoy small posts and interactions with people
You are, as you claim, mechanically urged to make more thought out posts. I think you should try it.
Barely relevant office quote:
Ryan: Little advice. Take a day off from the whole Jim schtick. Try caring about something. You might like how it feels… James.
Obviously it was town and mafia wincon, not winrate.
I will D2 on but I prefer to spend my D1 a little diff, I’ll probably just end up sheeping today anyone so I’ll try to actually talk to people and figure out what’s going on yk
or… you could try to improve content of posts.
But that is in the end up to you. I can’t change that.
uhm? no?? Im not??? im just using my own reasoning. sorry if my conclusions are unoriginal.
kinda hard to sheep when we’re not allowed to tell you our votes in advance
I skimmed my rolecard earlier and didn’t initially notice my post limit and assumed my class was normal. I can’t post too much but the consequence isn’t too bad so if necessary I’ll break it. Won’t say exact number or consequence for fear of claim-vig
Might as well stop waiting and spill what I have right now. Looks like Squid is pretty busy so I’m not going to delay this any further, our 300 IQ plans will have to wait for later.
Marshal is currently my top town because of the sheer amount of effort and solviness he is putting into the game as of right now. He made a fairly elaborate case on Jgoes even if I don’t fully agree with it, is evidently trying to do stuff in this game and I feel like his thought progression / posts are all natural.
astand/Simon honestly I feel null on both slots right now, they’ve barely done anything and I want more. Simon has written a lot of stuff but it’s been mostly mechanical talk and it’s easy to do that as both alignments.
Marshal has a couple of good points against Jgoes, some of which I’ve already considered; the things from the guide he quoted are some of the exact reasons why Jgoes pinged me. Narrow outlook on the game, aggressiveness, illusion of solving. Jgoes really went hard on Marshal for that reactiontest and it wasn’t even clear whether he was scumreading Marshal or not, he needed to clarify that later. It’s not 100% damning and the read can flip, but the initial impression I had wasn’t very good. I honestly want Chemist to start posting so I can compare him with Jgoes and hopefully be more confident about that slot’s alignment.
Luxy/Geyde - tentative townlean but be wary. They did have a lot of content in that post but ‘anchoring’ is a thing. ‘Anchoring’ - selling a lot of people on you being town in the early game so they don’t look at you with suspicion when you do shady things later. Basically what I want to say is, I do think they’re town based on content thus far, but I wouldn’t lock them whatsoever. I need actual followup on everything they’ve said so I can be sure their motivation is consistent.
Kai - townlean. There isn’t much to read into but that’s the impression I get from how he wrote his opening post.
This post is oozing confidence and I feel like Kai struggles with that a bit as scum. As in, as scum he isn’t confident, he just gets tunnely / follows the easy mislynch. Here he didn’t even try to make a super early read, which strikes me as much more towny.
Shurian - I honestly don’t have much to say here, but so far I’ve liked what I saw from him. The difference between his posting here and his posting in Marson is that here it looks like he is actually trying to solve and do something. Naturally, it’s not a very high bar to meet, so this isn’t a strong townread - but it’s there. Like with Luxy/Geyde, I anticipate followup and progression.
DatBird - 0 poster so oof. Funnily enough, posting less is actually scum AI for DatBird. Hmm.
Priestess/PKR - I reserve my judgment right now because neither has tried to solve at all. I want them to pick up steam later on, otherwise I’m going to put them in PoE and consider them potential coasting scum. Coasting is easier with the rules we have in this match because you can’t post as much as you would like to in most instances, so you are limited to wallposts/faster-than-average decisionmaking if a lot of things are happening.
Katze/Firekitten - It’s funny to say that about Firekitten’s slot but this is a 0-posting slot as of right now. FK must really hate his post restriction 
Basically I’m null on it for obvious reasons.
Derps - As of right now, still null. I think his motivation tends to show later in the match and early on it’s not easy to tell, at least not for me.
Maxwell - Slight scumlean. Reason why:
I know I mistakenly scumread Maxwell for being defensive in Looming Threat, but this feels different. It feels like he is using his ‘typical thing’, such as posting ‘lots of ISO and self meta analysis’, as a preemptive shield against accusations. This isn’t alignment indicative enough for me to label Maxwell as ‘hardcore scum lynch lynch lynch’, but I did get negatively pinged and I would rather not overlook it. I am indeed waiting for his future posts. Right now he set up something I could call ‘an excuse to replicate his previous town game’. If he’s town, it should come across as genuine later.
Jake/Alice - Jake is already playing very differently in comparison to Marson where he was town. I’m not sure if different = scum in this case. I think I’d like to postpone reading him until he has more content I can read him on, although his opening post wasn’t that bad - I guess I could slightly townlean this slot. That said, this is one of the most flimsy reads I have and I wouldn’t be surprised if I flipped it within ten minutes of writing this post.
Merc - Townlean. I like the content of her posts, I like the tone, I like the thought progression. Overall I just like her posts in all aspects. If she is able to keep this up she might become my top townread alongside Marshal. I still reserve my judgment, same with Marshal, but these two are most likely town in my eyes.
Nerbins - Another 0 posting slot, ew. Null, obviously.
Maximus - I think his opening post was really towny and I’m willing to strongly townlean him for it.
‘This wasn’t on watching for some reason’ - angleshooting, but I don’t think he would feel the need to say this as mafia because he would already know his scumbuddies started playing. This is very flimsy and not outside of scumrange, but it does give me a good feeling.
‘Lol the two cats are paired together lmao’ - interesting thing to focus on, very random. He could be leveling here or building a fake association if scum. I think this is the least towny thing in the entire post.
‘/vote nerb’ - I honestly think this is really towny. People have already made the mistake of voting in the thread before, then Maximus comes in and makes the exact same mistake. Again, this could be leveling, but this entire post has so many ‘levely’ things that it feels like a stretch to call it all leveling. I’m not sure if it makes any sense but at least I tried to explain it.
He does have a weird focus on Nerbins but I’ve wrongly scumread people for that kind of thing in the past and it doesn’t mean they’re both scum or anything. Overall I’m strongly leaning town on Maximus right now but the read can flip. I want to see how he plays the game later, I think his start was pretty good. Also, Marson proved to me that he ended his past meta of ‘having hilarious openers as mafia’ and ‘not having hilarious openers as town’. He was town in that game and his opener wasn’t serious.
Last but not least.
Disquieted.
I feel like the aspects of Disquieted’s opening post flew under the radar of multiple players.
I personally get bad vibes from Disquieted, because their opening post feels incredibly performative for my tastes. The amount of questions they ask there feels like they are trying way too hard to kick the game off and move things along. Besides, they are hyperfocused on a single player and I think that’s a bad thing, it shows a narrow perspective on the game (as bold as it is to say that this early, based on just one post). Several people have posted, but Disquieted only picked one of them to tunnel and ask a bajillion of questions.
Disquieted asked thirteen questions in a single post and only two out of fifteen statements there were not questions.
I honestly don’t understand why their post has garnered so many likes. The post is utterly bizarre to me, and I feel like it never comes from town because you can’t reasonably expect someone to answer so many questions this early. Asking them thirteen questions hardly helps solve the game or that player’s alignment - they are automatically given an excuse not to answer all of them, especially the inconvenient ones, because nobody will respond to thirteen questions at this stage of the game, within a single post, and give genuine/elaborate thought on all of them.
I feel like Disquieted is trying way too hard to seem like they know nothing and want to gather information. But that’s my take on it.
I want to wait for a bit to see how Disquieted follows up on all these questions. If there is followup and I like it, they are going to become townier in my eyes. Or if it was a lolreactiontest on Jgoes, but I’m not sure if asking a metric ton of questions is a good reactiontest. Ugh, I just don’t like that play (if it was even a play) on so many levels and I feel like scum motivation is written all over it. That said, it’s only one post and Arete still hasn’t posted… If anyone can redeem that opening slot in my eyes, it’s Arete. I’m totally unbiased. What Disquieted wrote is not 100% damning but it’s pretty damn suspicious to me and I want to make it known.
Now that I’ve said all that I’m ready for my reads to change. This is probably the biggest post I’m going to write on day 1 and later thoughts will be shorter.
Have fun. Not claiming my post restriction because it might be relevant.
it might, but it might not. personally i think its in town’s interest to try and keep it a secret who they’re voting. it would give us some clearer insights into people’s motivations.
this feels scummy. im not exactly sure why. I think its because he was pinged somewhere, then apparently he went back and read his classcard. then apparently he just posted, without properly catching up? otherwise i think he would know that numbers are apparently open info. i dont think a claim vig would be able to act based just on that and that feels to be a consensus of town. but why wouldnt he catch up? i think it feels to me like he’s a mafia that read through the thread but then acted like this to fake a town opener.
not a hydra
im on my own
I really don’t like this, also how do you keep who you’re voting a secret?? You just can’t push on your vote at that point lmao
im not going to give it out if i have to, no, but for you to specifically touch on it feels sus.
really? who do you think im voting right now?
Nebrins probably, it’s start of day one lmao, you haven’t made any real pushes so that’s just stupid to ask their
Simon is my first scum lean of the game
@Vulgard Pinging you so that you remember this. Next post you make, can you include a part where you explain this a little more in depth?
They are, after all, a hydra slot. I don’t really see how this is “buildiing fake associations”
Can you explain this more in-depth when you have the chance?
Nerbins’ initial post triggered my alarm.
This post has defensiveness written all over it, and considering it comes from one of the late posters it feels bizarre to me. I’m not sure why he would feel the need to be so careful and defensive as town, the thread was not revolving around him whatsoever.
In all fairness this is mechanical, so I suppose it could be NAI by definition, but I don’t like his apologetic tone here. ‘Oh, I’m sorry my post isn’t great but here’s why I won’t share details about my class, I hope this is helpful, don’t scumread me for doing X later pls’. I know I’m building a motivation that might not even be there but when I look at this post from the perspective of town!Nerbins, I don’t see a reason to start the match like this. “I had X thought when I read my classcard. I won’t do X. I won’t do Y.” …Why this? He wasn’t even asked. This is not very helpful either. He didn’t even say hi. D:
Not lock scum, but it feels similar to the type of defensiveness I’ve caught scum on in the past. The apologetic/somewhat-informative/logical (?) tone does not really help.
There isn’t much I can explain here. I said that because saying something like ‘haha the cats are paired together’ is a weird thing to focus on if you want to solve the game. In this case, it shows one of two things: either Maximus is feeling relaxed and posting whatever comes to his mind, or is pretending to be relaxed so people townread him for it (which is pretty important early on if you want a strong start as scum).
There is a potential third option that only applies if he’s scum: building a fake association. Mentioning FK/katze out of nowhere when they are both 0 posters calls attention to them and is the type of thing people return to when the person who wrote it flips scum. In short, he might be trying to build a fake association if he gets lynched later. ‘Oh, Maximus was talking about FK/katze before anyone else, that’s pretty suspicious. Could they be buddies?’
I honestly still think he’s town based on that opening post, but like I said in my previous post - the part about FK and katze is the least towny thing in that post because I can easily see scum doing it. Also, Marson has just ended and 2 out of 3 scum in that game did something like this. That’s why my bias might be showing (because the game was recent) and I don’t want to flip my entire read based on that one thing. It is something worth pointing out in my opinion, though.
I hope what I wrote above clears that up.
I’ll try to be more vocal since I’m the one with a higher posting limit, but the pressure isn’t good on the inside sweats
Like I said before, I’ll go check Disheveled’s post and try to think deeper
your implying that to talk on it or not give a reason means wanting to get shot, which isnt the case. i think if it were true you wouldnt say anything on it, just not say your limit (and explain if asked). i think that calling it out is an attempt for you to seem extra towny.
simplifying it down to that is a logical fallacy, but i forget what its called
that is actually incorrect. ill explain it later as im not sure how finicky the saying-your-vote thing is atm, but its nobody who you’d guess. i have also pushed on pkr somewhat
mindmeld mode initiated
i will say that it can definitely be AI regardless of whether its mechanical or not. mechanical stuff can still be AI
