[FM] Quantum Mafia - Game Thread - Mafia Victory

[Wazza]

0.18%

[WindwardAway]

the funny thing is that my overall odds of being a town PR went slightly up

[WindwardAway]

and so did my odds of being VT lol

[Marluxion]

@WindwardAway

nope, I got no night results and I submitted every action and holstered as cop/JoAT

Maybe I’m actually a JKer

[Zone_Q11]

@an_gorta_pratai

they also claimed that their number went down

I think that everyone will claim that their RC odds have gone down the drain.

@Wazza

Follow the majority pathways of everything.

This is in the op.

…? I don’t get it.
Since when does the Majority want gorta dead?

@YoubutWorse

@WindwardAway

oh, did your RB odds go up? because I got absolutely no night results so I was pretty much 100% blocked lol

my rber actually went down, did you get any maf rc results?

What does X being RBer have to do with Maf RC results? It’s not as if the results will disappear from worlds where X isn’t RBer.

[WindwardAway]

my RB and JK odds went down lol
we live in a block or be blocked world

[WindwardAway]

@Zone_Q11

What does X being RBer have to do with Maf RC results? It’s not as if the results will disappear from worlds where X isn’t RBer.

unrelated, I was asking because I think I was RB’d in every world lol

[YoubutWorse]

my maf RC chance dropped by a whole percent

my vig, JKer, VT, goon, JOAT, doc, and cop all went up by less than a percent

my rber and Md also went down

[an_gorta_pratai]

huh, that’s weird

[YoubutWorse]

@Zone_Q11

What does X being RBer have to do with Maf RC results? It’s not as if the results will disappear from worlds where X isn’t RBer.

because i didnt get any voyuer/md results, but I got maf RC results, so idk

[an_gorta_pratai]

and what are your Maf RC numbers?

[Magnus]

I chose to take a single day off from the forums, not realising it was the day this fm began. Even so, if the first day had not been skipped - as could be reliably expected from in any other game -, I would’ve had time to come online and discuss my probabilities of certain roles as everyone else did.
I consider this to be not to be entirely my fault, but everyone else’s.

@Wazza

my chances of being anything other than a VT is low so I’m sad and disappointed.

This is true for most people immediately.

@Simon

odds are actually not the same across the board.
the 10 setups rolled arent 10 sets of roles, but rather 10 sets of roles assigned to players.
so the same set of roles but applied to different players would take 2 slots

Exactly like this.

@Marluxion

In theory, everyone should try to perform the mafia kill night 1 yeah?
That’d make their chances of being mafia either hit 0 or 100% and then they’d get scum chat

Not really, no, since people wouldn’t really die. They’d have a percentage.

@Wazza

faster we get quickhammer

faster we find our roles.

This is what I was irritated about. It’s going to take numerous days anyway.

@Shurian

They’ll just be X% dead

Finally, someone gets it.

@WindwardAway

you mean we just kill each other in a circle to avoid having too many people kill the same person?

Clearly, this didn’t work out happening. Talking as the person with the highest death percentage.

@Shurian

Everyone shoots themselves ecks dee

Can’t selftarget. Said in the OP.

@Wazza

well if this game wants to be random, I’ll be random

The OP explains clearly; you do not want to be random, you want to control the probabilities.

@Shurian

We’ll have multiple people dying n3 and we will have 17 players until then because lmao who uses the vote system

I get this was probably a joke, but I’m kinda triggered. Why shouldn’t we vote? It controls the possible universes, like in a typical fm.

@Simon

i wouldnt normally feel the need to post this but because the math is weird in this game i am.
despite the quantum, baseline probabilities for town/mafia are still in effect because every setup rolled has the same numbers. from this, the baseline probability of any one player being mafia is 23.53% or pretty much 1 in 4
if the sum of all mafia %s in your rolecard is less than that percentage, you’re less likely to be mafia than your average player. and if its greater you are more likely to be mafia.
do with this information what yall will

This is genuinely helpful information, even if it’s fairly obvious.

@SirDerpsAlot

I petition we just quickhammer because this day is like actually pointless

Imagine wanting to quick hammer, in the span of one irl-day after the game starts when not everyone has even posted.

@YoubutWorse

ill just use a random number generator and then vote that

Bangs head on table.

@eevee

Considering it’s day 1, I will allow a day 1 skip if majority of players decides to not lynch today.

(And votes ::skip in voting thread)

But that’s up to you if you feel comfortable enough to vote someone right now or would rather prefer narrowing down chances first.

This was a terrible idea.

@ChopChop

Wait I’m confused, is everyone No Role RN until later or something?

What? This was more or less specified in the first few paragraphs of setup.

@ChopChop

Guess I’ll have to use my method Day 2 since everyone’s like “Nothing”
But here it is anyway,

Chop Chop Method

By following this Method, you get a way more accurate readslist and get scum almost all the time the longer you stay alive.

Playstyle PoV

Each player has a different (or similar to another) Playstyle.
The first thing to do is to know someone’s Playstyle before making a read on them as they can be naturally scummy or naturally Townie.
Now while a Playstyle is NAI (although to some that not so bright, can cause a read or two) you need to look at their Point of View. To determine how it can come from Town rather if it comes from Scum.

Look to see where their POV comes from.
Essentially put everyone as Town unless reason otherwise.

META

First off, if they have previous games you may want to look at them or if you already played with them enough then you may get the feel of how they play.

Contradiction

Now sometimes, people will stay stuff and then say something completely different or opposite. This is called a Contradiction.
Now while this isn’t entirely AI, in certain circumstances it can be if there is absolutely zero or close to zero reason they would do this from a Town PoV.

Agenda

Some scum have a certain agenda they want to push to get consistent ML’s or manipulation in others reads.
Now sometimes Town can also have Agenda’s as well.
So you got to figure out exactly how or why they would do it from a Town PoV.

Reaction

Sometimes Reaction is just straight out NAI.
However, in some cases a Reaction can be scum indicative and some can even be called a “Slip”.

So to push for some Reactions a good way to do it is to Pressure other players to see how they respond towards the Pressure.
Another, is try and question other people’s actions to see how they react towards the questioning and how they handle it.
Interacting is also a good way for Reactions as well but it’s usually not as effective as Pressuring or Questioning.

Votes, Reads and Kills Analysis

Votes

Remember it’s very important to where you place your vote. For scum they usually don’t leave their vote on a scum unless they intend to Bus.
Scum may vote each other throughout the day but them leaving it on each other at day end is an unlikely scenario.
When looking at someone you want to keep track where they placed their vote at the end of the day and keep track as to how many times they voted. (Who they voted each time is irrelevant, only the final voted player matters)

Reads

So when it comes to this, this has nothing to do with your reads but rather others reads.

First you want to take the number of amount of alive players and divide it by 4.
Then you want to take that number and try and get everyone to give their Top (that number) TR’s and their Top (that number SR’s) as it can come in handy later.

Kills

Most of the time people are killed for a certain reason rather if be accurate reads, obvious town or allowing scum to push agenda.
Now I suppose scum could randomly do the kill but it’s fairly unlikely for scum to do so.
There are also some, who just don’t make a certain kill as it would make no sense from their Scum PoV to do so.
Make sure to keep Track of each scum kill as well.

I also gotta Remember to see the dead townies reads killed or ML’ed.

Interaction Partners Removal

So sometimes there are just interactions players have that can just never be scum theatre. So keep track of those interactions as if 1 flips scum, you can clear the other.

Evaluation Swap

In the case of if you feel that your current readslist or PoE is incorrect, try and evaluate and swap at least 1 Read/Clear with another, potentially from the opposite side of the Readslist.

I like this post.

@WindwardAway

I don’t think anyone will be 100% anything on D2, either. You’re gonna have to wait a while because the wolves won’t be wolfing.

This is true.

@eevee

• No person who has seen me in a green tie has higher chance for Maf RC than Player X.
• If Player Y has Maf RC chance above 3%, the person above them on playerlist never lent me an umbrella.
• If Player X or Player Y are second in order of Maf RC chance, lowest VT chance is owned by the one who first fell in love.

Wow. This is worthless.

---

Don’t have time to read through the rest of the posts, since I need to walk someplace.

[Marluxion]

@Magnus

Not really, no, since people wouldn’t really die. They’d have a percentage.

I realize this now ye

[an_gorta_pratai]

honestly, I’m loving this concept

[YoubutWorse]

@Magnus

Bangs head on table.

ill do it again.

I didn’t really see the point in skipping D1 but i can see how it can narrow timelines a teensy bit so I kinda get it now

[Simon]

@Magnus

I like this post.

its a good post sure but like every post d1 here its ultimately nai id say (within a reasonable margin of error there was no one who was significantly different role percentages on d1)

[Simon]

@Magnus

This was a terrible idea.

i disagree actually
yes, perhaps skipping was not ideal, i would have liked to hear from you on d1 as did many people here (ik its not your fault im not trying to imply that), but i think not executing was the right move

[Marluxion]

i hate it but also love it
because now i have to lynch someone just to lynch someone basically

[Marluxion]

Next quantum mafia
give us our alignments but a wider pool of roles :^)

[WindwardAway]

looking at the 2x5 I guess I can inference that in worlds 2D and 1E, I would never be a PR because I got no results and have no way of being roleblocked (unless the JoAT in 1E targets me).

this info doesn’t benefit you guys much, it only benefits me