[FM] Quantum Mafia - Game Thread - Mafia Victory

[Magnus]

Unless Wazza has high Maf RC chance.

[Simon]

its predictive based upon death %s

[Zone_Q11]

I don’t get it. Wdym?

[Zone_Q11]

I honestly doubt that.

–by the way I will be unavailable from 2021-02-10T11:00:00Z to 2021-02-10T17:30:00Z.
I will still make it for EOD, but I’ll let y’all know this in advance.

[Simon]

magnus has a higher death % than wazza
magnus is ~16% dead and wazza is ~9% dead

[Magnus]

Informal vote count.

Accused	Voters	Votes
ChopChop	Zone_Q11, Marluxion	2/17
SirDerpsALot	ChopChop, LiLi041, WindwardAway, Simon, Magnus	5/17
Simon	Jane	1/17
an_Gorta_pratai	Wazza	1/17
Magnus	Shurian	1/17

[SirDerpsAlot]

We should kill people who’s pr chances are lower

[Magnus]

Everyone has pr chances under 5%.
We’ve already found a method of killing those statistically more likely to be mafia, due to possible connections with other mafias.
We initially decided to kill a 0% dead player, due to them not having been attacked by a mafia, but it came out that you were attacked once by Zone, using his JOAT vig ability. So you’re also on the chopping block.

[SirDerpsAlot]

What

[SirDerpsAlot]

Theirs no way to like defend myself here cuz it’s just statistics lol

[Magnus]

You weren’t the only target, just one of six. You were chosen in particular because you haven’t been posting content (I think)? Also we want to spare the new players at least until late game, if possible.
You could defend yourself by explaining why you should be left alive, without regard to roles or anything.

[SirDerpsAlot]

I’m fun to play with

[SirDerpsAlot]

I’m def going for mafia tho

Just I don’t understand statistics so I don’t exactly know the best way to do that

[Wazza]

@Simon

magnus is less likely to be mafia than wazza

how tf is he less likely than me?

[Magnus]

@Zone_Q11

Tell me why you are more fun to play with than Seth. You are currently the lowest poster, and you would have 0% death as well (which is apparently a criteria some people have set to the people who are more likely scum) had it not been for me attacking you as JOAT.

@Zone_Q11

Essentially, Derps has equal odds of being Mafia as any other 0% dead players, because while Mafia can’t shoot Mafia, Vig shooting Mafia doesn’t collapse any worlds.

@Simon

huh. i actually wasnt aware of this. well then in that case, yeah the ~1% dead chance on derps checks out with this story, and would not preclude derps from being mafia despite that 1%

This is why you are included in the ‘let’s kill today’ category, alongside Seth (ChopChop). It’s between only you two.

---

@SirDerpsAlot

I’m def going for mafia tho

This just encourages us to execute you, lol. It implies you won’t be helpful at all.

[Zone_Q11]

Yes, but what does this have to do with Magnus being less likely Mafia than Wazza?

[Magnus]

I don’t get how, but this was Simon’s reasoning:

@Simon

its predictive based upon death %s

@Simon

magnus has a higher death % than wazza
magnus is ~16% dead and wazza is ~9% dead

[Wazza]

0.18% → 0.20% (From the Change) - Maf RC
0.23% → 0.47% (From the Change) - Goon
19.97% → Any PR (Not Mafia RC)
79.61% → VT (Yes I am aware that this only equals 99.99%, don’t blame me, blame the game for using simplification

[Wazza]

ah I messed this up big time.

[Simon]

you can defend yourself by coming up with a better alternative and pushing for it.
i dont know what that would be here (otherwise id push for it myself)
but it is possible