and a succesful/unsucessful blood mage rit
and a non-lamb traitor rit
just do ur nerd shit
and a succesful/unsucessful blood mage rit
and a non-lamb traitor rit
just do ur nerd shit
5 of us are talking. That means there is a 45% chance on of us is scum
Today is make it or break it.
A enchanter ritual would be good, but if we have a confirmed blood mage then that would be even better.
thatāsā¦ maybe right technically? It probably is nontechnically too
one of arete/kat is traitor probably, ici possible too, maybe sulit.
But iād say arete/kat holds traitor like 70% of the time but like if kat is ritted traitorā¦ i donāt even hate it and i want areteās mathā¢.
I donāt think you/arete/kat/myself contains a starting heretic ever
gorta? idk about him
sure
assuming it hits (i.e. real Enchanter + no Cleanse):
also I just looked back at the numbers I had before and realized that I screwed up the math (removing a townie for a scum lynch in addition to a scum) but I think the conclusion is still true it just takes longer to be true (which is good though because it means we have more chances for scum to miss a nightkill)
today:
3+1v7
ritual enchanter still 3+1v7
correct lynch 2+1v7
nightkill 2+1v6
ritual the enchanter again because theyāre locktown :^) 2+1v5
correct lynch 1+1v5
nightkill 1+1v4
correct ritual 1+1v3
correct lynch 1v3
nightkill 1v2
at that point we can technically still win if one of the last three is a Blood Mage/Enchanter, or if the last one is exactly the traitor
actually this is worse than I thought because even with an enchanter rit scum still have to hit a protection at some point, or we have to pull off another mechanically correct ritual
Unless we take out 2 heretics today then itās likely gg.
wait jesus christ
do we HAVE to rit a blood mage?
is there ever a correct scenario for me to use voodoo link in this gamestate?
cause rn i think healing spell is like the best option in every way
I think it would be the best option.
We need to take out 2 heretics to have a decent chance to win.
Blood mage ritual (blood mage shoots scum/traitor):
3+1v7
ritual blood mage, they shoot scum 2+1v6
correct lynch 1+1v6
nightkills 1+1v5
correct ritual 1+1v4
correct lynch 1v4
nightkills 1v3
correct ritual 1v2 (or if only the Traitor is left this can be used as an extra lynch)
Blood mage ritual (blood mage shoots town):
3+1v7
ritual blood mage, BM shoots town 3+1v5
correct lynch 2+1v5
nightkills 2+1v4
correct ritual 2+1v3 which is gg (but technically if we blocked a nightkill and ritual an enchanter or whatever we could maybe still have a chance if weāre perfect)
not going to run Blood Mage + Cleanse because thatās equivalent to the ritual-a-random-townie
traitor numbers next
Iām going to run them separately because they have different abilities that are different amounts of bad for us
so basically
we have to rit a blood mage and hope they shoot scum
or rit an enchanter and hope we get a night save or two
I mean
technically
i could stop this
yeah
Iām calculating for the scenario where no one ever manages to block a nightkill by any means because thatās not something we can count on
but to be fair itās a possibility
well
we have 2 conjurer claims alive
2 enchanter claims alive
and 2 healer claims alive
i think one nightkill being stopped isnt astronomically unlikely
actually having two enchanter claims alive is really good in the best case scenario
because in the best case scenario we get scum killed by redirecting someone into nightkilling a partner