[FM] Ritual Mafia IV -- Day 4 (7/16) -- Heretics and Traitor Win!

and if scum used their strongman(which is a likely scenario because vulgard is 6 feet under) then enchanter likely has the abil to fuck some nerds up

3 bloodmage claims too

ritualing Elementalist:

the only ability that matters for math purposes is Secret Vote (although obviously the others are bad)
right now 3+1v7
ritual Elementalist 3v7
correct lynch 2v7
nightkills 2v6
ritual town 2v5
correct lynch 1v5
nightkills 1v4
ritual town 1v3
correct lynch gg

this is like

actually good

i considered that as well

but i only trust one of them as being a currently alive, unconverted blood mage

and they claimed to have used their big day ability already

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is Ritual of Power 1-shot or permanent

because that affects whether ritualing a Lamb is a ā€˜bad but survivableā€™ scenario or an ā€˜avoid at any costā€™ scenario

So do we want to lynch a Traitor?

depends

if elementalist, yes
if ritualist, maybe
if lamb, probably not but idk

oh u meant lynch

lynch, yes, i think that wouldnā€™t hurt at all

we want to lynch nontown

okay

Iā€™m going to run two sets of numbers, one where Double Ritual hits scum and one where it hits town

Double Ritual hits scum:
right now 3+1v7
lynch Ritualist, Ritualist picks scum, scum gets a convert 3v6
lynch scum 2v6
nightkills 2v5
correct ritual 2v4
lynch scum 1v4
correct ritual 1v3
lynch scum gg

I feel like I must have screwed up some of my math somewhere because scum getting an extra convert (even by ritting the Traitor) shouldnā€™t put us in a better position than ritualling town?? can someone please check my math here + elsewhere

Double Ritual hits town (and town has a kind of useless ritual ability)

right now 3+1v7
ritual Ritualist 3v6
lynch scum 2v6
nightkills 2v5
correct ritual 2v4
lynch scum 1v4
nightkills 1v3
correct ritual 1v2
lynch scum gg

I forgot about nightkills here but the logic still holds

so ritualist
or elementalist

are like +EV rits for sure?

you forgot the nightkill after 1v4

I think probably a ritualist wouldnā€™t target a Blood Mage/Enchanter claim, possibly unless they really thought they were scum??

apparently??? I was running some numbers with that last night but not in as much detail

why is that a thing

thatā€™s silly

if a rit gets ritted they probably target a useless town or someone they are sure are scum

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come to think of it

iā€™d probably be the gamer-est selection for a ritualist
godawful rit abilities
and removing my voice and kill-blocks from town is bleh

Holy shit I forgot Night Phase happened and forgot to give anything

so uh

i should definitely
update my ritual abilities