[FM] Ritual Mafia IV -- Day 4 (7/16) -- Heretics and Traitor Win!

and if scum used their strongman(which is a likely scenario because vulgard is 6 feet under) then enchanter likely has the abil to fuck some nerds up

3 bloodmage claims too

ritualing Elementalist:

the only ability that matters for math purposes is Secret Vote (although obviously the others are bad)
right now 3+1v7
ritual Elementalist 3v7
correct lynch 2v7
nightkills 2v6
ritual town 2v5
correct lynch 1v5
nightkills 1v4
ritual town 1v3
correct lynch gg

this is like

actually good

i considered that as well

but i only trust one of them as being a currently alive, unconverted blood mage

and they claimed to have used their big day ability already

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is Ritual of Power 1-shot or permanent

because that affects whether ritualing a Lamb is a ā€˜bad but survivable’ scenario or an ā€˜avoid at any cost’ scenario

So do we want to lynch a Traitor?

depends

if elementalist, yes
if ritualist, maybe
if lamb, probably not but idk

oh u meant lynch

lynch, yes, i think that wouldn’t hurt at all

we want to lynch nontown

okay

I’m going to run two sets of numbers, one where Double Ritual hits scum and one where it hits town

Double Ritual hits scum:
right now 3+1v7
lynch Ritualist, Ritualist picks scum, scum gets a convert 3v6
lynch scum 2v6
nightkills 2v5
correct ritual 2v4
lynch scum 1v4
correct ritual 1v3
lynch scum gg

I feel like I must have screwed up some of my math somewhere because scum getting an extra convert (even by ritting the Traitor) shouldn’t put us in a better position than ritualling town?? can someone please check my math here + elsewhere

Double Ritual hits town (and town has a kind of useless ritual ability)

right now 3+1v7
ritual Ritualist 3v6
lynch scum 2v6
nightkills 2v5
correct ritual 2v4
lynch scum 1v4
nightkills 1v3
correct ritual 1v2
lynch scum gg

I forgot about nightkills here but the logic still holds

so ritualist
or elementalist

are like +EV rits for sure?

you forgot the nightkill after 1v4

I think probably a ritualist wouldn’t target a Blood Mage/Enchanter claim, possibly unless they really thought they were scum??

apparently??? I was running some numbers with that last night but not in as much detail

why is that a thing

that’s silly

if a rit gets ritted they probably target a useless town or someone they are sure are scum

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come to think of it

i’d probably be the gamer-est selection for a ritualist
godawful rit abilities
and removing my voice and kill-blocks from town is bleh

Holy shit I forgot Night Phase happened and forgot to give anything

so uh

i should definitely
update my ritual abilities