[FM] Ritual Mafia IV -- Day 4 (7/16) -- Heretics and Traitor Win!

[Marshal]

and a succesful/unsucessful blood mage rit

and a non-lamb traitor rit

just do ur nerd shit

[Braixen]

5 of us are talking. That means there is a 45% chance on of us is scum

[an_gorta_pratai]

Today is make it or break it.

[an_gorta_pratai]

A enchanter ritual would be good, but if we have a confirmed blood mage then that would be even better.

[Marshal]

that’s… maybe right technically? It probably is nontechnically too

one of arete/kat is traitor probably, ici possible too, maybe sulit.

But i’d say arete/kat holds traitor like 70% of the time but like if kat is ritted traitor… i don’t even hate it and i want arete’s math™.

I don’t think you/arete/kat/myself contains a starting heretic ever

gorta? idk about him

[Arete]

sure

assuming it hits (i.e. real Enchanter + no Cleanse):

also I just looked back at the numbers I had before and realized that I screwed up the math (removing a townie for a scum lynch in addition to a scum) but I think the conclusion is still true it just takes longer to be true (which is good though because it means we have more chances for scum to miss a nightkill)

today:

3+1v7
ritual enchanter still 3+1v7
correct lynch 2+1v7
nightkill 2+1v6
ritual the enchanter again because they’re locktown :^) 2+1v5
correct lynch 1+1v5
nightkill 1+1v4
correct ritual 1+1v3
correct lynch 1v3
nightkill 1v2
at that point we can technically still win if one of the last three is a Blood Mage/Enchanter, or if the last one is exactly the traitor

actually this is worse than I thought because even with an enchanter rit scum still have to hit a protection at some point, or we have to pull off another mechanically correct ritual

[an_gorta_pratai]

Unless we take out 2 heretics today then it’s likely gg.

[katze]

wait jesus christ

do we HAVE to rit a blood mage?

[Marshal]

is there ever a correct scenario for me to use voodoo link in this gamestate?

[Marshal]

cause rn i think healing spell is like the best option in every way

[an_gorta_pratai]

I think it would be the best option.

[an_gorta_pratai]

We need to take out 2 heretics to have a decent chance to win.

[Arete]

@Marshal

and a succesful/unsucessful blood mage rit

and a non-lamb traitor rit

Blood mage ritual (blood mage shoots scum/traitor):
3+1v7
ritual blood mage, they shoot scum 2+1v6
correct lynch 1+1v6
nightkills 1+1v5
correct ritual 1+1v4
correct lynch 1v4
nightkills 1v3
correct ritual 1v2 (or if only the Traitor is left this can be used as an extra lynch)

Blood mage ritual (blood mage shoots town):
3+1v7
ritual blood mage, BM shoots town 3+1v5
correct lynch 2+1v5
nightkills 2+1v4
correct ritual 2+1v3 which is gg (but technically if we blocked a nightkill and ritual an enchanter or whatever we could maybe still have a chance if we’re perfect)

not going to run Blood Mage + Cleanse because that’s equivalent to the ritual-a-random-townie

[Arete]

traitor numbers next

I’m going to run them separately because they have different abilities that are different amounts of bad for us

[katze]

so basically

we have to rit a blood mage and hope they shoot scum

or rit an enchanter and hope we get a night save or two

[Marshal]

@Arete

nightkills 2+1v4

I mean

technically

i could stop this

[Arete]

yeah

I’m calculating for the scenario where no one ever manages to block a nightkill by any means because that’s not something we can count on

but to be fair it’s a possibility

[Arete]

@N.1

Ritual of Influence (Passive) - If you are sacrificed, the heretics will gain the following ability:

• Secret Vote (Day) - Add 1 lynch vote to a player of your choice until the end of the day. - 1 use.

Elemental Ritual (Ritual) - If you are sacrificed, all the Heretics will get 1 extra use of their limited use abilities.

@N.1

Ritual of Power (Ritual) - If you are sacrificed, the heretics will be able to use up to two factional kills or similar abilities (must be performed by different players).
Ritual of Sleep (Ritual) - If you are sacrificed, select a class type (Support/Offensive/Social/Investigative). All Congregation players of said class type will be occupied tonight, bypassing immunity.
Ritual of Omniscience (Ritual) - If you are sacrificed, select up to two players and reveal their classes to the Heretics.

@N.1

Ritual of Influence (Passive) - If you are sacrificed, the heretics will gain the following ability:

• Secret Vote (Day) - Add 1 lynch vote to a player of your choice until the end of the day. - 1 use.

Double Ritual (Ritual) - If you are sacrificed, select a player. Sacrifice them and trigger their Ritual abilities (this counts as a normal ritual, so any abilities that affect rituals such as soul exchange will affect this as well).

[katze]

well

we have 2 conjurer claims alive
2 enchanter claims alive
and 2 healer claims alive

i think one nightkill being stopped isnt astronomically unlikely

[Arete]

actually having two enchanter claims alive is really good in the best case scenario

because in the best case scenario we get scum killed by redirecting someone into nightkilling a partner