I think if we are adding another neut slot it be that way and not in another guranteed way. Gives a lot more claiming space for neuts and evils
Realistically with 18 people they should have 5.5% chance as thats 1/18 with a little wiggle room to grow if they are a better play to around 10%. 1 player by themselves shoudlnt have that much swing as a solo faction to have. Like I do agree we need to buff them a tiny bit to even get them a win, but it has to be slow or they are just gonna dominate
im really indifferent, as I like D1 lynch but I get why there isnāt so the cult and unseen can get at least one good convert before they are fucked, but even then a good prince could do the same
By your logic, since the cultseen only ever make up a small portion, they shouldnāt have that must swing to the game.
Ad the BD have the most people, they should always be able to swing the game into their favor.
The difference is the cult and unseen have conversion that raises there chances a lot. Also if you read my message I gave NK up to double 1/18 so about 1/9 chance. Thats because BD is unorganized and thus even though they have the power in numbers dont know who each other are, thus their potential starts the highest but actually can dip rather low by player skill, by both the BD and everyone else. Realistically you leave a bit of swing with the numbers but not to much
Even if the cultseen started with their max amount of numbers, they would still be in the minority.
Im not invested myself but D1 lynch is kinda the opposite of what tol is - since tol always tried to punish yolo kills and lynches by BD
If a BD gets exed D1 its kinda okay for the balance, but if a NK or an evil gets exed D1 BD has quasi insta won. No reason to play out the game when evils have basically no chance anymore
Fol is not mafia - if a MM gets lynched D1, there is only a single unseen left n1!
And NK but who cares about a class which cant win anyways
Ok picture it like this jake. lets talk numbers
NK is one person. 5.5% possible to grow to 11% based on his/her skill to blend in and not get in poe
Cultseen are starting 11% with the possibility to grow endlessly off the BD converts
Neuts play their own games so realistically one they are hard to calculate, two the only ones that would activly add to the chart are prob witch, and ss which would raise chances of Unseen/Cult
King is either 5.5%to 11% to Cult Unseen or 5.5% to 2.75% to BD
BD starts with 13 to 12 people so 72% to 66%. But have the ability to drop to 36% to 33% based on skill.
Everytime Cultseen converts they remove 5.5% to 2.75% off the BD winrate. and add it directly to theirs. Even if they lose a member they can just continuosly add more and more BD (in a vacuum as realistically they arent gonna no kill and no lynch every night)
Cultseen has potential to grow by raising their chances by conversion while also lowring BDās chances with conversion and kills. By numbers alone all this makes sense as they are balanced.
Also just like logic of giving 33% to NK makes 0 sense as realistically no player skill wise or not should be able to just have a 33% chance especially when better skilled players realistically raise that chance even more. If NKs were that strong they would prob need to be unblockable unhealable double kill every night. Which would prob make the game even more unbalanced and raise the swing so much especially if the NK removes two mafia night 1. 33% for one person also feels unfun to everyone else in game that only one person wins because their base odds of winning is almost 6 times more than the base person. How NKs are right now I would agree is prob to low they prob are at the 1 to 3% chance of winning. But 33% is a hella alot more than they are now. and that number doesnt make sense balance wise
We do we are trying to buff them but not make them a monster. Balance is hard, and takes time. We dont want to overbuff them
How can you overbuff a class which wont win anyways? 
An overbuff would be to give him more KP. Helping him against invests isnt bad for balancing
NK can win. It requires someone to actively try hard to do it. I agree current state that the chances are extremely low.
And thats my point. I dont want to give him more kills, I want to give them utility, a fake claim maybe, a way to not appear neutral to invests on a limited use basis, a way to make them have a chance to get out of poe. Even giving a NK day invest could really help them seem to be towncore. Kills is not what the nk needs right now. Also all of these are suggestions and not a all in one idea.
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Like straight up giving them a fake claim and one use (maybe even more) of a BD ability from their fake claim really can be the bread and butter of getting out of a poe for a NK
You forget that the high winrate is compensated by the low amount of people in the faction. Any other person in the game could fabricate reasonable evidence to get the NK killed, and they canāt really effectively avoid that unless they are too skilled to be considered āaverageā
We donāt balance based around āwhat if this person is the best/worst playerā, we balance around the average skill of all players.
More kills isnāt the only sensible thing to do here. If anything, that is a stupid thing to say. Giving it Investigative immunity, or some way to win in a scenario where it gets to the final X players would be more sensible.
the main way giving NK a way to mimic BD abilities/making them invest immune/etc. helps them isnāt āit lets them be confirmedā itās āit makes it so that someone provably using a BD ability/being greenchecked/etc. doesnāt take them out of the PoEā
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All those numbers started at the average and skilled Unseen raised the chances and less skilled BD lowered those chances. Yes BD realistically could also grow in percentage if really good players, but I was balancing around average