Arete - Knight
N1 - Defend Teleology
N2 - Defend Teleology
I think Alice is powerwolfing. She took what was clearly going to be a lynch on Datbird, her likely scumbuddy, and turned it into a lynch on Lymphoma with questionable justification; she was hesitant to even believe the check on Datbird; she wouldn’t create a nightplan for if Lymphoma flipped BD, leaving the rest of us kind of stuck; her progression on Datbird feels kind of unnatural. I’m not betting the potential lives of two BD on it, especially since if she’s the Mastermind she’s Death Immune anyway, but I am putting this at the top of my readlist because it’s important. The so-called Wisp on HTM is probably actually a Foresight, where convert immune gets Wisped as Neutral and not that gets Wisped as BD. Could in theory also be N1 convert, but I don’t think that’s actually what’s happening – I think she was softing a failed N1 convert.
Other reads:
Townreads
Eevee: Is the Prince. Unless they’re faking Prince for some reason (e.g. knowing Sogman was Prince based on process of elimination), which we should be able to figure out pretty quickly.
Jake: I was townreading Geyde, and given that they’re the Priest and said they would prove themself tonight, I’m inclined to trust them. Obviously there exist people who fakeclaim Priest but I’d be pretty shocked if that’s what’s happening. The galaxy-brain tinfoil theory is the one where they’re the MM and someone else is a Soulcatcher, but I’m calling that one tinfoil for a reason.
Teleology: yep she’s still BD
Ozzkozz: Townie as of D2, but if evils missed the N1 conversion they’d be a likely N2 conversion, since most people are going to be inclined to view them as “proven” (though I’m inclined to think they’d go with one of the various more powerful converts)
H_Hja: Can’t be Unseen (Datbird is Assassin per Ozzkozz, and the jail would block the N1 conversion) but could in theory be the NK if it’s a Demon game and we were somehow wrong. Still, that’s pretty tinfoil, and I’m inclined to say that they’re much more likely to be a real Hunter.
Maxwell: This might be because of my tunnel on Alice, but Maxwell seems pretty BD to me based on my Iso of him. I could be totally wrong, but his jumping on the Datbird wagon doesn’t really feel like a bus to me. Obviously if Eevee dies that’ll be a pretty strong indicator that they’re scum.
HTM: More or less self-resolving based on whether or not Datbird is dead, especially if we count the other kills and see if there’s still an NK kill as expected. I’m inclined to think Alice will out truthful results on HTM as well, even if she is as I suspect scum.
SirDerps: I was scumreading them D1, but I think based on their D2 Iso they’re just confused newbie BD. There is some possibility of them being the NK (particularly since they’re coming from ToL, where Chrono is kind of a meta claim), but I’d say it’s very unlikely that they’re groupscum. Them being the NK could explain the weird kill on Sogman (if it wasn’t someone mistakenly picking up on a Prince soft). If it turns out that Sogman was Possessed I’d say they’re cleared from that as well – I don’t think someone would Possess someone with the goal of framing themself, that would be really weird.
Scumreads
Possessed: If we’re going to get really tinfoil, this could be a Warlock who was bled D2 after being convert immune N1. At the very least, that’s what totally random and unexplainable D2 bleeds usually mean in FoL (convert immunity, that is). We can probably make a guess at this based on where they redirect Datbird to – if someone in the PoE is dead, or Datbird looks to have been straight-up HH’d, they’re probably fine, if not, they’re likely scum.
Kape: Still kind of reads as EK to me, to be honest, but at this point in the game I don’t think that’s quite worth worrying about yet. Even if he is, scum still shouldn’t have votes tomorrow, I don’t think .
Alice: Explained above.
DatBird: Basically lockscum, specifically lockassassin.
I think the NK is probably hiding somewhere in my townreads. I’m weirdly confident in my Datbird/Alice theory, which of course means that it’ll inevitably explode in my face. I’m going to feel really dumb if Alice is BD and dies tonight because I didn’t follow her nightplan.