This leaves NK between Chloe/DryBones (I’ve said this like 100 times in my ISO, I’m pretty sure) and I think Chloe has made several suboptimal choices this game if she’s NK. Doesn’t seem like she’s it.
As for the current Assassin, I’m pretty sure EVO/DatBird was converted night 1 based on my Allies chat N1 with Alice and a few other reasoning thingies. As for last night’s convert, I feel like it could’ve been SnakeEater just because he’s not doing shit and because his slot was basically confirmed BD as of day 2. So either converted night 2 or night 3.
Obviously, if Unseen failed to convert night 1, then only 1 person was converted and things are way easier because we only have 2 Unseen alive rn.
I accused Squid of the same thing yesterday and she flipped starting MM. There’s some merit in this line of reasoning.
Say… I heard that Alice said that Chloe is NK. I get that it’s unreliable info, but since we have a lot of time, how about we play a bit with it?
If Chloe is NK, is it possible that Possessed is the new Assa?
(Also, what’s with the talk with Snake? And why would Chloe push DatBird?)
Tbh, we’ve been discussing Alice’s post for like 2 days now. It’s rather complicated.
Possessed mechanically can’t be n1 convert (jailed n1). Could potentially be n2 or n3 convert. In which case, he’s either Assa already or will become Assa after we lynch Alice.
That’s an optimistic POV, but I am more of a pessimist. “When there could be 2 converts, there probably are 2 converts” and such.
@Italy, who do you plan on to jailexe?
In the end, this all ends with your decision.
If he’s Assa already, then there shouldn’t have been 2 KP last night. He’d have to be Herbalist rn because he’s claiming Physician, which would also confirm that he was converted n3. (If converted n2, that’d mean he’s the only convert and he’d be Assassin n3, meaning he would’ve been blocked by Chloe and a nightkill would be missing).
And he’s never Assassin until we kill the actual Assassin, so he can’t be outed just by occupying him.
Post or posts? If there is 1 specific post, then I’d like to see it.
Wdym “becomes the new Assa”? I thought only Starting Assa becomes MM, so in case there are 2 converts, the remaining Assa shouldn’t be able to become new MM, right?
This is with the premise that Chloe’s occ on Possessed is real.
Unseen always have an Assa. If there’s no Assa, the next person in line who isn’t the MM becomes Assa.
Poss converted n2 - 3 Unseen day 3. He’s not Assa then. He becomes Assa when the Assassin dies or is promoted to MM. MM dying promotes the other member to MM and Possessed becomes Assa. MM died d3, so Possessed would have to be Assassin N3 and he was blocked that night. We had 2 KP N3, meaning that this possibility should be mechanically deconfirmed.
Poss converted n3 - 3 Unseen today. He’s not Assa. He becomes Assa when the Assassin dies, because Alice is MM and as such, the current Assassin is the convert before Possessed. MM dying doesn’t make him Assa.
They don’t get any more MM promotions, so if Possessed is Unseen rn, he’s converted Physician and he becomes Assassin only when we lynch the current Assassin.
Huh… so it isn’t impossible. But since it is basically impossible for NK and US to coordinate, it becomes impossible?
In other words… 1 Assa… I now understand why you guys were talking about DatBird and Snake.
Come to think of it, occupying DatBird might not work. @Chloe
If Snake is converted and is groupscum with DatBird, occupying DatBird won’t stop KP and won’t confirm him as Assassin. It won’t confirm him as anything.
So if you occ DatBird and there’s still a kill at night, it’s likely they are both wolves.
Unless Chloe is NK, and “somehow” understood the situation immediately, before covering Possessed with her occ claim. --but that wouldn’t make sense, since NK doesn’t have a reason to put themselves above anyone else. In other words… Possessed indeed cannot be converted N2, according to Occam’s Razor.
Humu… by the way, why are we so focused on Possessed again? I feel as if we’ve forgotten something.
…oh, right. Seth being NK. Chloe being Butler occ’ed Possessed… is possible.
–gah. Too many worlds. We need to make a choice eventually.
My current choice is to lynch Alice, kill DryBones with Prince at night (I think his convert equity is almost nonexistent. Alice has called DryBones a super easy read and that doesn’t seem to be a great convert target for that reason. Especially since Alice is on the wolfteam), then lynch DatBird and SnakeEater or Chloe if DryBones is BD.
Worst-case scenario is 3-man Unseen + NK + NE, in which case BD have already lost unless some weird mechanical fuckery happens at night.