FoL29 - Uninformed Spec Chat (Jane/Anstreim/Nappy Edition)

wolfgard

this message was brought to you by
anerd the prince

1 Like

Issue with that is that it sorta rules out a lot of players as Prince.

Maybe one could get passed off as a sheep Prince if they remain silent or just say:

role

Staying silent is the most optimal play when exeing early, change my mind.

Otherwise you just imitate someone else in the game.

I’m not going to because I agree with you.

But I can’t resist saying something.

1 Like

Nappy I believe I have just the solution for you.

Post the joycat copypasta.

1 Like

You don’t even understand who the fuck you’re dealing with. I have advanced degrees in statistics and computer science and I’ve created a simple program with an advanced algorithm that I’ve been working on for years. I have read and tracked over 600 forum mafia games, recording every fencesit, every association, every scumtell. I have over 50 documented, specific forms and versions of scumtells and towntells, and at this point I can just skim a thread and put it into my machine. I have reduced the cacophonous lies of forum mafia into a pure, beautiful mathematical formula, and it’s led me to literal hundreds of wins.
Why do I think you’re scum? I don’t deign to think about you myself. Instead, I thought about how to create a program to know mathematically whether you are scum. I don’t need to think about you, because my algorithm has determined that you are scum to an 87% certainty. You cannot beat those numbers at this stage in the game. We’re talking about a mere 13% chance that you are a town member so monumentally bad at this game that you fooled a computer program that has successfully identified over 500 unique mafia players as scum with over 96% accuracy. Your only defense, in other words, is that you are so naturally scummy that you’re an outlier.
Whether you’re town or mafia, this is a message from mathematics – you are bad at this game. You have played so scummy that a perfectly objective process has labeled you as scum. Whether that makes you bad at playing your specific rolecard or bad in general, there is no question that behaving like scum means you have not performed well. Consider this a welcome wakeup call, as hundreds have before you: If a player decides you’re scum, it’s possible you just got unlucky, but if a computer program can be that certain of your alignment, there are some serious holes in your game, because it means you’re scum in an objective sense, rather than a subjective one. For that reason, I’m willing to roll that die and take that 13% risk, because even if there’s a small chance you might be town, there’s not even a remote chance that you’re good.

Posting this right after Vulgard’s post would be awesome.

1 Like

tbh tho i’d probably just have a short message

i kinda feel bad

Vulgard’s town game is very good and very difficult for any player to match just generally. Having to fake all of that is very hard.

1 Like

I’ve already talked about this but I think he should just level himself.
Make his town game less… prominent, and do the same as scum.

But I’m just a nobody and I’m aware how difficult it is, so eh.
I do feel bad for him though.

I dont think he should level his town game though…

That’s just downplaying yourself and not trying your best in hopes that in a future scum game, you won’t be read like that.

All I think he’s gotta do is keep on trying.

See I wouldn’t say it’s downplaying yourself.
It might just equal to posting less, like, your deductions are still your deductions, you still have the same logic/thought process.
Just don’t enter the thread while doing massive ISO dives on everyone, it’s time consuming and hard – also the more wallposts you write, the more opportunities you give yourself to slip imo.

If he did his analysis privately and started explaining it shortly, it would probably be a lot more easier for him to fake it as scum.
Because he’s still playing instead of holding back, it’s just the matter of how.

1 Like

I mean he could probably do this

and make it look like he’s doing this

1 Like

The good thing is that Vulgard knows exactly what the problem is.

He knows that he’s obvious scum because he’s obvious town lol

1 Like

Sure, that could work too.
Though he’d have to work on making his wallposts indirectly lacking conclusions, which is absolutely doable.
Actually fun thing, during NKA that I did in 62 (this post):

I literally omitted my true conclusion from it. That conclusion being, that all 4 people I ISO’d are objectively almost never starting scum.
He could do the same.

I just don’t want him to burn out and leave, because iirc he was quite disappointed in his last games – and he’s a good player. Seeing him give up would be quite tragic.

1 Like

@Blizer Do it I dare you.

1 Like

Deadass i will

1 Like

Town

Arete
katze
PsychoKing
TBE
PKR (hate his play but he’s probably town…)

ATNoName (Prince?)
Centuries
Appelsiini
Chloe/SoulShade/Frostwolf/Italy/Calculus/Amelia (haven’t sorted through these yet)
Wazza (probably NK?)

Vulgard

Mafia

1 Like

PK just feels so innocent I can’t help it