FoL29 - Uninformed Spec Chat (Jane/Anstreim/Nappy Edition)

wolfgard

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anerd the prince

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Issue with that is that it sorta rules out a lot of players as Prince.

Maybe one could get passed off as a sheep Prince if they remain silent or just say:

role

Staying silent is the most optimal play when exeing early, change my mind.

Otherwise you just imitate someone else in the game.

Iā€™m not going to because I agree with you.

But I canā€™t resist saying something.

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Nappy I believe I have just the solution for you.

Post the joycat copypasta.

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You donā€™t even understand who the fuck youā€™re dealing with. I have advanced degrees in statistics and computer science and Iā€™ve created a simple program with an advanced algorithm that Iā€™ve been working on for years. I have read and tracked over 600 forum mafia games, recording every fencesit, every association, every scumtell. I have over 50 documented, specific forms and versions of scumtells and towntells, and at this point I can just skim a thread and put it into my machine. I have reduced the cacophonous lies of forum mafia into a pure, beautiful mathematical formula, and itā€™s led me to literal hundreds of wins.
Why do I think youā€™re scum? I donā€™t deign to think about you myself. Instead, I thought about how to create a program to know mathematically whether you are scum. I donā€™t need to think about you, because my algorithm has determined that you are scum to an 87% certainty. You cannot beat those numbers at this stage in the game. Weā€™re talking about a mere 13% chance that you are a town member so monumentally bad at this game that you fooled a computer program that has successfully identified over 500 unique mafia players as scum with over 96% accuracy. Your only defense, in other words, is that you are so naturally scummy that youā€™re an outlier.
Whether youā€™re town or mafia, this is a message from mathematics ā€“ you are bad at this game. You have played so scummy that a perfectly objective process has labeled you as scum. Whether that makes you bad at playing your specific rolecard or bad in general, there is no question that behaving like scum means you have not performed well. Consider this a welcome wakeup call, as hundreds have before you: If a player decides youā€™re scum, itā€™s possible you just got unlucky, but if a computer program can be that certain of your alignment, there are some serious holes in your game, because it means youā€™re scum in an objective sense, rather than a subjective one. For that reason, Iā€™m willing to roll that die and take that 13% risk, because even if thereā€™s a small chance you might be town, thereā€™s not even a remote chance that youā€™re good.

Posting this right after Vulgardā€™s post would be awesome.

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tbh tho iā€™d probably just have a short message

i kinda feel bad

Vulgardā€™s town game is very good and very difficult for any player to match just generally. Having to fake all of that is very hard.

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Iā€™ve already talked about this but I think he should just level himself.
Make his town game lessā€¦ prominent, and do the same as scum.

But Iā€™m just a nobody and Iā€™m aware how difficult it is, so eh.
I do feel bad for him though.

I dont think he should level his town game thoughā€¦

Thatā€™s just downplaying yourself and not trying your best in hopes that in a future scum game, you wonā€™t be read like that.

All I think heā€™s gotta do is keep on trying.

See I wouldnā€™t say itā€™s downplaying yourself.
It might just equal to posting less, like, your deductions are still your deductions, you still have the same logic/thought process.
Just donā€™t enter the thread while doing massive ISO dives on everyone, itā€™s time consuming and hard ā€“ also the more wallposts you write, the more opportunities you give yourself to slip imo.

If he did his analysis privately and started explaining it shortly, it would probably be a lot more easier for him to fake it as scum.
Because heā€™s still playing instead of holding back, itā€™s just the matter of how.

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I mean he could probably do this

and make it look like heā€™s doing this

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The good thing is that Vulgard knows exactly what the problem is.

He knows that heā€™s obvious scum because heā€™s obvious town lol

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Sure, that could work too.
Though heā€™d have to work on making his wallposts indirectly lacking conclusions, which is absolutely doable.
Actually fun thing, during NKA that I did in 62 (this post):

I literally omitted my true conclusion from it. That conclusion being, that all 4 people I ISOā€™d are objectively almost never starting scum.
He could do the same.

I just donā€™t want him to burn out and leave, because iirc he was quite disappointed in his last games ā€“ and heā€™s a good player. Seeing him give up would be quite tragic.

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@Blizer Do it I dare you.

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Deadass i will

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Town

Arete
katze
PsychoKing
TBE
PKR (hate his play but heā€™s probably townā€¦)

ATNoName (Prince?)
Centuries
Appelsiini
Chloe/SoulShade/Frostwolf/Italy/Calculus/Amelia (havenā€™t sorted through these yet)
Wazza (probably NK?)

Vulgard

Mafia

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PK just feels so innocent I canā€™t help it