Forum of Lies 30 - Night 5 (5/18) The Demon and Inquisitor win!

Alright, that makes sense. I can see this world a lot more clearly now.

Still waiting for Vulgard to say hello zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

Objection!

ā€¦ I had to.

And honestly, your first point is terrible to begin with.

You are not analyzing the sitiation at day 2, but throw current one over it, which makes it look different.

At day 2 mystic was not outed.
Hell, at day 2 we had first lynch day, straight after convert night.

Claiming someone was locktown on BEGINING of that day clearly shows you didnā€™t really analyze situation back then, but throw acusations on past actions through current PoV, when motivations differ at dofferent time.

Point irrelevant till you justify how unknown mystic was obvtown back at the day 2 start for you and everyone else.

Thereā€™s literally no point to convert hunt early d2 as you have effectively only conjecture to go from.

Yes, Soul wasnā€™t outed, but that was my fault as I already knew Soul was a Mystic from Allies Chat+Link, so my PoV was already biased. The main reason I scumread Derps was that he pushed those two was because AT made a comment regarding a thunderdome and Derps latched onto that point accusing AT of having TMI that Soul is a wolf, which is completely nonsensical and not something Iā€™d see a village think.

Can villagers be wrong? Yes, however Derpsā€™ entire though process felt artificial being that rather base his read on Soulā€™s posts, he zoomed into ATā€™s and then accused me of being the NK because Intensify had a tinfoil and was NKā€™d n1, without even bothering to assess my posts. In short, I donā€™t believe Derps is acting in good faith this match.

For the last question, Soul has a very lethargic wolf game and his early D1 was the opposite of that. This is completely out of his wolfrange.

We will get to the point 2 of previous list (You as NK) in a moment, okay?

Letā€™s continue with point 1st first.
One argument at a time, for better organization.

For reference - this parts.

Now, I think we both agree that natural for town is toā€¦ hunt scum. Not in all cases, but pretty much needed.
Itā€™s to the point that people go paranoid.
Itā€™s way more likely for people to talk about theirs scumreads then townreads.

Thatā€™s also why at first your argument of not obvtowning someone was pointless.
Rather opposite - as your own case illustrates, obvtowning someone is pointing towards TMI (king chat / mystic link in your case).

Now for the Derps case - if you see someone correctly predict who someone will push and vote nextā€¦ does it also not point into TMI?
Remember, people are paranoid.

Yes, it could be that they were also having kingā€¦ mysticā€¦ or some other chat.

Any fully convinced opinion early in game is weird.
Especially any CORRECT sure opinion.

I donā€™t see it as scummy to be paranoid of someone knowing something which they shouldnā€™t know.
Same as situation with you a moment ago - you shouldnā€™t know at beginning of day 2 about Soul, unless you had outside knowledge. Which you did.

Even more - being paranoid is rather moreā€¦ townie.
Even if someone canā€™t really explain what they think about as Derps, at least it means he was watching and noticingā€¦ some weird interactions.

I wolfhunt by building a towncore and lynching outside of it.

My thought process was that Seth was obviously meta-cleared, CRichā€™s tone is fine so heā€™s v likely V as well, Light hyperposted d1 so I cleared him yet again, and then Chaos thinking about logs was a very newbtown behavior so he also went into my towncore. Paradox was put in the outer part of it for his attitude during the gamestate at that time.

Again, even if you didnā€™t have TMI regarding Soulā€™s alignment it was obvious that from his proactivity that he was a villager.

Yes, except that the basis for Derpsā€™ argument was that by AT calling his vote an incoming thunderdome that he had TMI that Soul was a wolf. Paranoia exists, but I read people who donā€™t have a contrasting wolf/town game such as Seth or CRich via their thought processes. Derpsā€™ entire push on AT/Soul had no build-up, nor progression, nor shown any signs of his thought process into solving the game. It was purely raw aggression that can be easily faked as a wolf.

Letā€™s get to the point B.

And what else would you be tinfoiled as?
Let me seeā€¦ last when I checked maids canā€™t bleed.

Leaving you as either hunter or starting group scum or NK.

Which your starting claim - Iā€™m hunter, I bled Insanity means you either are hunter or went for a bold play of claiming day 2 to be seen as helpful etc. etc.

Which tbh was probably not very smart, cause now you wonā€™t really kill scum with bears nor cc them claiming hunter either.
Or wonā€™t let prince claim hunter.
etc. etc.

Generally shutting down a lot of options, especially when done so early.

Bleed also was done very early, 1 hour into day 2, if you ask me.

I think in general it could be done better.
If you waited, you could bled SirDerps after all. And HH by insanityā€¦ and it would also work, if Insanity is town that is.

So nowā€¦ add this to person who suspected you dying.
Is it really unlikely that someone could suspect your outing and that death as a play to push away suspicions?
Or is half of this argument you considering you should be lock town back then due to your ability etc, without much considering how it looks like from the outside?

Cause imo I see your argument on him suspecting you as mostly being annoyed that someone suspects you when you are ā€œprovenā€.
When in reality it might look weird.

And once again - paranoia is good, not bad.

Thatā€™s a meta read.
Iā€™m not convinced everyone knew that.

I play without meta on people and I have honestly no idea if Derps knew AND remembered about whatā€™s Soulā€™s town and scum play.

And I doubt you know it either.

Iā€™ve just been in a game with W!Soul and he pulled the same thing in Clash of Cults. Soul has no WiM when he wolfs. Also I donā€™t suspect people for having bad reads, I suspect Derps from how he progressed from it where it was reachy as hell and it also relied in preflips withoit any basis at all.

Also irt Derpsā€™ suspicion on me thatā€™s not why I SRā€™d his argument. Derps did not interact with me, read my posts, or anything like it and instead based it off a nomsensical NKA. I do not think anyone can solve in good faith if they arenā€™t interacting with others or at least reading deeper into their posts, which is literally what Derps outright claimed he didnā€™t do. For Derps to base his entire worldview around preflips and his own representation of an NKA raised several red flags.

Sure, pure agression can easily come from wolf.

But thatā€™s not enough.
My question is if it can also come from town. And if yesā€¦ what makes it scummy here?

What makes THIS stupid push without build up more scummy than townie, beside the fact itā€™s stupid push.

Again, fact that YOU were in game with W!Soul and learnt something from it, doesnā€™t mean Derps knows it.
You seriously need to stop reading people according to own knowledge, instead of theirs.

Also, we both know Derps struggle to write anything longer than one-liners.
Compare it to mine or yours andā€¦ you will see that he has to have bit different game style, not strategist or logician. Soā€¦ you also canā€™t expect them to have same playstyle as you.

Hell, if I was going to compare them to any of leading players types in professional mafiaā€¦ I donā€™t think he would fit any of them to begin with. And thatā€™s fine.

Just make sure you are reading them without own information / PoV / opinions clouding the judgment on someone else. Cause so farā€¦ I still believe they are.
And he didnā€™t have to have same information / PoV / opinions, and thatā€™s fine.

Question is why, not what when reading other player after all.

Letā€™s get to the crĆØme de la crĆØme of our list.

And that will come to both yours and everyoneā€™s else case.

That is a fact.
Andā€¦ thatā€™s all it is right now.
Facts are not scummy nor townie, till you connect them to either town or scum behavior.

I can say sky is blue and itā€™s neither townie or scummy after all.

So letā€™s get back to analyzing it.
I will repeat same question as I did before.

Can it come from town Derps?
Not town you, town Derps.

And if yesā€¦ what makes it scummy instead of townie here?
What makes THIS stupid claim without any thought as more scummy than townie, beside the fact itā€™s stupid claim.

And again, not from our PoV, but from Derps PoV.

Does it sound realistic that he would be thinking about it a lot, that it might cause issues if it leads to misslynch.
Or is he more of acting without thought guy.

Etc. etc.

I expect answers.

Public defender out.

Oh, for a note.
Iā€™m fully aware this wonā€™t convince any of you.

After all I only proven that Derps moves donā€™t have to come from scum, not that he IS not scum.

But thatā€™s something you need to think about yourself for a moment, so we will continue while people show up, so I can actually talk to someone, instead of just monologue.

my only weapon is a skim of the thread.
i havenā€™t actually tried to read people, and iā€™m also a class which requires me to have good reads on people, so thatā€™s nice.

will get right to isoing probably. what are the most pressing concerns rn? whether derps is scum or not?

You took your time Vulgard and youā€™re here.
Lets start with where you think the game has gone so far and your read on Derps.

on the surface level, scimitarā€™s case on derps looks compelling and also makes them ā€œprobably town.ā€ iā€™ll say that much.

Your slot was slanking hard and good thing youā€™re here to hopefully prove youā€™re town, assuming you are town.

Another thing going against Derps was the flash counter wagon on Magnus, who is a LHF and flipped town. Almost as though some people didnā€™t want Derps out of the game yet.

Mind you Magnus was pretty much a useless slot, so voting him out isnā€™t it itself a scum move.