Hanging the King D2 is almost always correct

Class/Lore/Fanfic
#1

If there are no 100% leads on Day 2 (Sheriff claiming Unseen, Psychic claiming Unseen with public announcement, Observers and Princesses are not 100%) then hanging the King gives BD roughly a 60% (this number is subjective because of Neutral King) chance of removing an enemy while allowing their Nobles, Princess o̶r̶ ̶P̶r̶i̶n̶c̶e̶ to step up to claim the throne. Remember, Neutral Kings are only pro BD until the end of the game.

The chance of the Mastermind converting a Noble or a Princess:

No Nobles, 1 Princess Game: 7.7% chance (Game 1)
2 Nobles, 1 Princess Game: 23% chance (Game 2)
2 Nobles, 2 Princess Game: 30% chance (Game 3)

If we immediately execute the King Day 2 in Game 1, we have a 61% chance of both eliminating an Evil/Neutral King AND electing a BD King. Pretty enormous swing there.

If we immediately execute the King Day 2 in Game 2, we have a 51% chance of both eliminating an Evil/Neutral King AND electing a BD King. The existence of Nobles slightly lowers this chance to a coin flip.

If we immediately execute the King Day 2 in Game 3, we have a 46% chance of both eliminating an Evil/Neutral King AND electing a BD King. At the worst case scenario of this strategy we are faced with a slightly worse coin flip.

Assuming these 3 games all occur just as often as each other, (only accounting for 16 player games for these calculations) we can see that the average chance of killing a Neutral/Evil King Day 2 and electing a BD King is about 53%.

Now let’s look at the numbers involving the King being BD AND Mastermind converting a Royal.

  • Game 1: 3% of the time

  • Game 2: 8% of the time

  • Game 3: 10% of the time

Assuming these games occur about the same time on average, averaging these numbers together gives us 7%. In the worst case scenario of the D2 King Lynch strategy, there is only about 7% of the time it can be catastrophic.

Conclusion:

  • 53% of the time it is amazing.

  • 7% of the time it is terrible.

  • 40% of the time you hang a BD King only to replace them with another BD King, a neutral outcome. This still removes the uncertainty of the first King’s alignment which is valuable and numbers don’t show that.

The law of large numbers says that hanging the King D2 has positive equity 100% of the time.
Does that mean it will backfire sometimes? Yes. Can it lose you the game? Definitely. Just very rarely.

The era of Kings is over.

–all these calculations were done with the assumption the Princess was not killed Night 1–

#2

Wrong section.

#3

Fixed.

#4

If you are not sure about the Kings faction then it’s not correct unless you have nobles. Princess becoming king at Day 2 is not worth it at all.
Princess can
1.Find assassins and Neutral killers
2.Prove that some one claiming knight could be lying

The evil king won’t know the unseen at Day 2 so what’s the point ? You’re just wasting your resources to potentially find an NK or an assassin.

#5

I am with Bounty, The Kings shouldn’t be seen as Survivors.

#6

Even if all of these were worth it, I can assure you no one would be willing to die day 2, just for more chances. Honestly I’d get pissed if I was executed day 2 for no reason too, especially if I was BD. I’m pretty sure everyone would be pissed if they just got executed just for more chances. It’s a game, without even ranked mode, there is no reason to go so tryhard mode just to win.

FUN > wins :wink:

1 Like
#7

I think Sketch makes a 100% valid point, King in his current state is normally better to hang early on. IF you have no leads you aren’t “wasting your resources” as you have none anyway.

I’m fairly sure they are looking into King to address how passive he feels and hopefully they will address this issue too. I agree with TryphonX that FUN is way more important than wins but lot’s of people disagree (case in point cancerous VFR in ToS) so it’d be sad if a meta of always hanging King D2 develops.

#8

You can trust me I’m Respected

#9

Wait, So hanging a King day 2 that could be good or neutral or even a bad king when he does not know any unseen then making princess king isn’t waste of resources ? Bro please.

#10

i… don’t know what ot think of this

#11

me neither. Respected doesn’t mean anything really… I’m a mod, that doesn’t make my opinion more powerful than others’.

1 Like
#12

Watching FoL 6 must have been frustrating for you then

#13

Yes it was.

1 Like
#14

I like how you think the King has a say in whether they get executed or not :joy:

The fact is if BD wants to win, you hang the King. Sometimes Fun for people is winning, sorry to say

#15

It isn’t a waste of resources, it’s allocating your resources differently. You’re trading Princess for a King, essentially.

#16

Princess is an investigative type and you’re basically wasting your resource that could find assassins and Nuetral killers so yeah. It is a waste of resources.

#17

It being a waste is a subjective term. You value the Princess more than most, as did I a few days ago.

I believe eliminating a potentially damaging King and replacing them with an almost certain BD one is more valuable than finding killers at night.

What if a Princess calls out 7 as a killer and the Prince is on the stand? If the King is evil they will Guilty him instantly, no hesitation. The Princess can cause trouble in her own right.

#18

The Joke

Your head

1 Like
#19

Then that is a bad princess. a good princess whispers the dude asking for a claim and if he claims something that other than knight and prince then he’s obviously lying. Also investigates are always more important because you never know who is gonna be killed and what their classes is going to be. if sheriff dies and psychic dies then you have a lower chance of finding the unseen and neutral killers and that’s where the princess comes into play. Kings are only important late game where every class is exposed.

#20

Mod powers do strange things to people. Us mortals can’t even joke any more without people misunderstanding :sob: