[Minimash] Community Forum Mafia 2 - (5/9/31) - Game Over - ModeShifter (Alice) Wins!

Solic · June 11, 2020, 8:43am

Who is your most likely candidate for the person you are wrong about?

Icibalus · June 11, 2020, 8:44am

You, but I really don’t think so. My villagereads are disturbingly strong this game.

Solic · June 11, 2020, 10:23am

I feel like it’s futile to argue further with seemingly no thread activity, but this could have been a townslip.

They are really trying to sell it however in a next post… AAAHHH

I’m going to be really sad if you’re town. Your last few posts have all been questions about pushes/reads/greenchecks with no conclusions of yourself when you’re main wagon. I need to read that wallpost that you made again to be honest.

Solic · June 11, 2020, 11:01am

I’m so conflicted on this gamestate.

4/5 scum likely remain. This relies on a few factors:

N was scum. I would say I’d literally quit mafia forever if this wasn’t the case, but in my current state, I should more so say that I’d join 3 different mafia sites in addition to signing up for every game here if this was true.
Any of the banned people are not scum.

Marshal is out of this one for being killed night 1 and noone claiming it. CRich hasn’t been claimed either. Some players dying early and not claiming it, because everyone immediately started insulting is a left-field option.

Sulit announcing their desperado shot could also have been a coordinated effort to propel Alice to “lock-town” in order to endgame. This scenario requires that Alice and Sulit are both scum and would use kill-power on themselves. It has the benefit that Chloe could use resurrection on Sulit. Setting up Chloe to use resurrection on a mafia is something accounts for all these deaths however. It feels unlikely, but it’s a possibility.

Geyde was first proponent, so that’d make this scenario less likely.

Kyo/Light/Centuries/PKR contain a scum. (I just noticed that these are all judge alliance, except PKR who was swapped) That makes that scenario slightly more likely for N to be Chloe-hunting, making it more worthwhile to take another scum with him.

Nightkill on Marshal wasn’t too weird with push on Napoleon.

Nightkill on CRich is just …??? I agree that Chloe wasn’t too hard to find

It might, as said, indicate a LHF team of Simon/Mist/Maxi/Ici (gf). It fits with very low WiM on Ici, N making a super half-assed push. Napoleon imploding himself day 1. Italy not even trying and being salty on Napoleon for claiming Chloe. No resistance whatsoever to this wagon now again. This doesn’t fit with the control of the thread leading to so many town deaths though. Was it really just accidentally hitting all these other town LHF in a row? Who the hell would the possible 5th member even be?

I don’t know whether it’s my tunnel syndrome coming back for being rusty or me just hating being possibly wrong, but I can’t shake Alice distrust and this being again mostly dictated by her PoE. Unless people start showing up I don’t think I can change this vote anymore. Honestly I wouldn’t know on who now anyways… I feel like I’m just hoping for the best and I dislike that passivity. It feels like being a sheep waited to be slaughtered. So many town have flipped today and literally every living player doesn’t seem to blink. What the fuck is up with that, it makes me paranoid.

Btw I asked and apparently interaction with desperado and gf depends on the desperado wording.

It feels good to be at a keyboard again, but I feel like now I’m too late. I really dislike these short game cycles tbh. Someone please share thoughts with me if you’re here. This thread has died down hard. I feel like I can just pray that Simon is mafia and we’ll be okay from that. I think that’d really make me a bit more assured on current proceedings, because I certainly didn’t push him, so that’d make the main pushers on the thread (Alice) look a lot better to me maybe finally.

Solic · June 11, 2020, 11:12am

Simon:

the wall

But that would be in the interest of a scum sided neut as well. Lots of town Cred for the price of outing someone who would most likely be outed anyways.

KyoDaz:

Okay, so again we go back to the only possiblity would be me as scum with knowing specifically that only scumsided neutrals exist

This still risks a 3p flip
lol

Or. You had an indication regarding the state of neutrals in the game and took a risk. Or, heck maybe you are a neutral, and were told that you were the only neutral.
Neutral claim vig? It’s not something we haven’t seen b before (even if you are a flavor claim vig)

eevee:

Third event: Picture of my cat

My disappointment is immeasurable…
And my day is ruined

Ami:

i mean

i want to say sorry but it would be disingenuous which tbh is worse than not saying sorry

But if it would be disingenuous then you don’t? Want to apologise?? Like necessarily. What makes it legitimate is the want to make up for ones mistakes.

CRichard564:

No and if you’re going to shoot someone, that someone should be Simon

N.1:

pkr, because he claims an ability that seems absurdly underpowered to me, even on town. Also he’s been vague in responses a good deal.

Maybe it’s time for the pkr claims power role anti meme, pkr claiming underpowered.
As I recall pkr used to claim power roles a lot and I remember scum reading him for that, so maybe he modulated his play in an attempt to not be scum read. I’m not entirely sure whether this would paint him as scum or town, as neither side wants to be scum read so it’s possible either way, but if I had to guess that’s what is motivating his play here.

N.1:

kyo, because my gut tells me hippo was neut

Honestly, I’m inclined to believe that this is the truth (that he believes this to be true, not necessarily that hippo was neut). It feels like too outrageous of a claim to be anything other than what he just assumed to be true, and so didn’t look at it critically.
For the first bit of this post, I don’t know since I do not recall that initial explanation

Leafia:

I actually agree. Hippo had to be neutral. I’ve even thought of a scenario where Kyo could be telling the truth and Hippo could still be neutral. That scenario is if Eevee only told him the number of neutrals that were currently alive.

That would also make sense.
It depends on how it was worded, so now we look to kyo to see whether the wording had something tricky in it like that.

N.1:

I don’t buy any other possibility for what hippo was other than neut, im sorry

If he was town, town would have been buffed in some way that we’d know about already
if he was scum, well I believe that whatever buff his team could have gotten by yeeting himself, it would not have been worth his own life day 1 no matter what the reward was due to how skilled of a player he is

the only other possibility between those and that he threw is that he’s some kind of neut. That, or kyo’s information was compromised somehow, or this game is bastard

This tracks with what I was thinking earlier to be honest. This feels to me like the hip thing was just something he innately assumed to be true, and now he is backing up that realization after the fact.
Weirdly though this doesn’t feel like tmi. I don’t think N was externally told hippo was a neut, and that he slipped up and is now backtracking. It feels more like an assumption, that instead of being like “I know hippo is neut” behind his words in the first post it was “of course hippo is neut, what else would he be?”

Chloe:

Seriously, 3ps probably don’t exist.

I’m terms of this, I honestly don’t really know. I’m waiting for some more stuff before I take a stance either way

Centuries:

active players who arent actively griefing i feel LOL

I don’t like this post. I don’t really think it’s scummy on it’s own, but I don’t like what it promotes. N here is discussing his take and is doing it relatively calmly. Even if you vehemently disagree on said take, he’s still promoting discussion. Which I think makes him not actively griefing anything. And I think you should be a bit more accepting of people who disagree with you.
To be clear I just read that and I want to clarify that that isn’t me attacking you for the thing earlier (“oh, you should be more accepting” he says like a snob, taking the moral high ground. (Again to be clear this is not what I’m saying because that is really pretentious imo))

N.1:

i did not know this existed

this is probably the most likely possibility
apologies

Again, more and more this feels like something he just assumed was true and then backed it up. Apparently it was because he was unaware of an alternative
As well, slight tr on N here for how quickly he accepted that

Centuries:

us getting there reeks of tmi at one point i feel

I see what you mean here, but from what I’ve been saying I really think it was a genuine, not tmi related, mistake on N’s part, that started this discussion and promoted them to bring up the according Mafia role.

Chloe:

Well, I’m going to bed rn.

I’ll put Simon on ignore when I come back, please tell me if he has made any productive posts.

You know, I don’t only talk about mechanics. Most of that was responding to yall. Mechanics I think are just a nice way for me to get into the game so I know a few things, and can start properly understanding posts.
Because due to the whole not directly saying anything, it’s hard to get anywhere from most posts if you don’t already have a starting point. Now that I know a few things I’m able to figure out more implicitly from these posts.
And as you see im generally able to sense motives fairly easily, but it tends to be in a complex way that doesn’t simply ascribe itself to scum or town. (I tend to see motivations for either side, in relatively equal measures)

N.1:

self-suiciding is not jesterfool

DatBird:

he might not have been added due to the whole event situation, unless he stated it before

How would y’all rate the possibility of a revenant-like situation?
Hippo “suiciding” day 1 which actually just shifted him into a different mode of play. Still don’t think it would be town-aligned as he would have revealed this by now, but it would rectify the situation of why he would suicide: he was forced to, so he made a meme of it.

N.1:

If simon is town, I will never play any match he plays in again i’m pretty sure.

I mean you realize that I haven’t really had a chance to do much up until now, as I had been focused on defending myself basically all the time I had been online so far, right? I essentially made an opening or two that were focused on mechanics and the rest had been responding to the people constantly pointing toward me. As I’ve said I really was not able to focus on making content of any sort while I was doing that so I was essentially trapped.

Centuries:

Sulit Napoleon Ici is something that happens a lot

Why does Napoleon make long complex posts to answer Sulit but he half asses his Marshal answers?

Kinda weird

Wouldn’t that indicate that Marshal is on his team, not sulit? As he would feel like he needs to answer sulit properly, but he would feel ‘safe’ with Marshal, and so not put much effort into his answers there.

N.1:

yes, i’ve finally come to the terms with the fact that his behavior is NAI for him, but the way he plays is so frustrating for me due to my ptsd that came from supreme bunglements of sfol 53, mafia academy, botf 2, and more, that it’s just not worth the stress not to mention the fact that i might be prone to lash against him in the future again for things that arent scummy for him specifically

I’ll try and understand why it make you mad a bit better, and in doing so explain myself a bit better to you, if you also try and remember this a bit better if we play again later, and in doing so be more readily accepting of my explanation.
Deal?
(To be clear, I’m not trying to be hostile here and offer you a fake deal it something. This is me actually just trying to extend the olive branch a bit)

Centuries:

this doesn’t really work now does it

Heh. Do you use the windows default snipping tool too? I recognize the defaults.

Cheeki2:

But don’t rely on mech in a closed game.

(Unrelated to the discussion between these two)
You can lean on mech in closed setups, you just have to think it through a bit differently.

big paragraph on this that would clutter this wall

First, acknowledge the possibility that what you have is wrong, and that it can really be anything, and there’s no way at all you can know for sure. Now, gauge how likely it is for that to be right. Do you think somebody with a misinformation ability had reason and ability to target that information? How likely do you think the host is to mess with that stuff? Other, similar questions. Now make your statement, modulated on these probabilities instead of “x visited y so x is probably scum” think along the lines of “x most likely visited y so there’s a good chance x is scum”
And importantly, update that probability as things and your perception of them change. Do not assume it to be that way in the future necessarily. Now take this piece of evidence and compare it to your others, social and mechanical, to make your read.

Centuries:

Solic / Ici / Sulit all mention you way more than the average person or at least talk to you more

ok yeah but like why does that make them likely to be on a scumteam with them. like i understand this is your reason for that, but what does this fact make that likely, is what i dont understand.
even if its not what you believe now i want to know your reasoning behind this.

Cheeki2:

But… it’s not going directly against my mech info? Did you even bother to read the thread?

yes, but what is your mech info, or did you only say it once, maybe twice, early on, and are now assuming people would be able to get it from implications alone from the majority of the thread (when thats really not feasible).
im going to quote whenever i see it mentioned at all so you can see what it means. so basically, im actively trying to gain this information from reading the thread from here on out, and i will show you how that does/does not work out.

TrustworthyLiberal:

Light i agree with Centuries that you only slight scum reading Kyo seems werid due to the situation.

“due to the situation” does not tell me at all what light’s results are.

Centuries:

Then what happened for your results to be this way

this does not tell me at all what light’s results are.

TrustworthyLiberal:

But it is atleast i am pretty confident it does i don’t think it was a yazuza role maybe something that kills itself for a benifit but i dought conversion or atleast really hope not as conversion is my least favorite mechanic in any mafia game.

so lights information had something to do with conversion, and yet people think the hippo thing would go against this? best guess i can make from what ive seen so far, but i think thats unlikely

Cheeki2:

I don’t know. I do not know. All I know are the results.

yet you dont say them here.

Cheeki2:

Remember, this is an Eevee game.

ok cool so there could be conversion anyways, and thats not what your results are. still dont know what they are.

TrustworthyLiberal:

… BAD LIGHT

if you are alive atleast us it on a living player for actually information

oh yeah, i remember something about something being an effective parity cop somehow, maybe thats this. and it apparently needs to target two people, at least one of which can be dead? maybe it detects if the two people are the same alignment or not? but thats just a direct parity cop, just in a different direction than normal. so maybe. still dont really see how hippo would go against this.

Centuries:

your N1 lynching priority

joke about N.1 being in the game, even though you meant Number 1, not the person

Centuries:

when you have information that contradict each other

so its a parity cop, but it detected a neutral, in 2 uses? somehow?

Centuries:

Alice really went off on Simon for some reason

‘for some reason’? you were right there with her going off on me!

Centuries:

If we live in a world where people pro letting simon live are town then Geyde and Crich are likelier to be at least one of them town

i think we need to look out for the people advocating for my living now, that turn on me later when my play has time to shift.

Cheeki2:

I’m confused

its a play on the standard fm role ‘paranoid gun owner’, a role that attacks people who visit them. variations like choosing when that happens and whatnot are there, but thats the core mechanic of the role.

Centuries:

I mean lol

responding to the rolecard more than this post really, as this is the first time im seeing it.
it seems this is where yall have been getting the 5 scum number to start with. well id say its unlikely that 5 scum is all there will be this game with that role. id say almost definitely there will be at least 6, probably 7, maybe 8. whether this means through conversion, starting amount, or a mix im not sure, but thats the amount of scum im thinking of from this role. i dont know how starting scum numbers work out balance wise (especially with this size) so im not taking that as an influence on this number.

TrustworthyLiberal:

I actually think this is incorrect now with this tinfoil hat in hand.

Napoleons role proves it he would never had made the play he did if suicide conversion was at play as his role would be online super fast in comparision i think the more likely anwser is Hippo suicided or was informed they would die soon and had to post the if i get 2 hearts i kill myself cause the role made him do it.

If this role is town target me today target light he will be our stepping stone

but if he was already going to die, why would a town hippo post the thing like that? how would the role force him to do that, if he was already going to die soon? i still think hip isnt town from that. a town hip would have given more clarity on that, something like ‘im going to die soon from another role’ maybe ‘im not conforming to its demands so i will actually die after this post, but even if i did i would almost certainly die anyway’

Cheeki2:

That’s not how my ability works

wait then how does it work.

TrustworthyLiberal:

Napoleoons role?

except for kyo’s info, id push for the possibility of there being two scum teams, and napoleon’s passive triggering for either team. it feels like something eevee would do, although on second thought with the relative abundance of flipless kills, i think its unlikely anyway. eevee wouldnt do that and also make it so that he wouldnt have an indication that his passive proc’d

Centuries:

Simon had horrendous play, only mech nothing else

i will say again that i did not really have the room to do much else

Centuries:

Alice told Simon to roll a high number so he could self clear by dying since we were pretty set on lynching him, anyway he rolled like a number one number higher, basically bad play

on this note. alice said that i said i wanted to die by execution.this was not the case. i said i would not intentionally die without giving town information. i was willing to test guns and die in doing so, but i was not willing to test an ungodly amount of guns and die, without giving concrete information. so i asked her how i could give information, and she said to test two new guns, so that is what i did. the thread then stalled for a bit, so i went to somewhere else, and got caught up for a little bit. (cannot explain further, ongoing game elsewhere on this forum) and when i came back the event was over. also in that time eevee revealed that we could test multiple times. had i come back before the event ended, and had i realized that we could test multiple time what i would have done was incrementally test two more at a time until i died, telling you guys each time. this would kill me, but it would give town a lot of information, including 1 of 2 ita shots that would be guaranteed to hit.
however as i said i got caught up, and so did not do this, sorry.

Frostwolf103:

Sorry to burst someone’s theory of Yakuza

yakuza is a day thing and that says ‘most’ meaning it does not preclude flipless kills in the day or flip kills at night
how would that in any way mean that there is no Yakuza

looks at total posts tfw the amount of posts between me and being caught up has increased since i started this wall

MaximusPrime:

so we can just ita him instead? literally no point in wasting the entire day and lynch on him

im going to say that even if yall are dead set on killing me, i might be a better target for the noose than an ita.
and i know how much that makes it look like im trying to mislead yall into executing me instead of ita-ing a scum me and then executing me but that isnt the case (i bring it up because alice brought it up earlier regarding event 3 and me)
i do legitimately have a reason for this. im not going to explain it here, but i thought it prevalent to bring up. should it become necessary i can explain it in a few separate levels of detail, depending.

Solic:

And Frost!

(thats not frost)

Solic:

You apparently had enough to ITA me for it.

i mean depending on when that was (i forget) he may have known in advance that it wouldnt hit, making it more a show of force than an ‘actual’ ita in terms of motives and whatnot.

MaximusPrime:

but srsly, can u say that with 100% certainty

well i cant, but it seems we have it from two separate sources, which adds to it’s credibility. its possible both are lying, but im thinking thats unlikely

an_gorta_pratai:

/insult Italy

if im counting right this is the fifth after event 3

an_gorta_pratai:

This can be really bad, but I don’t think there should be more than 3-5 yakuza.

why would we have multiple yakuza in the first place.

CRichard564:

I see Gorta confirms that there is a GF in this game. Any doubts that Gorta is town can be removed.

well i mean. it supports the idea that theres a GF in the game sure. but its easily possible that a scum gorta saw that there was a GF earlier, and is now just repeating that. imo it confirms you in my eyes a bit more though.
i say this because i dont know why people are taking you as confirmed town, and the fact that its most likely not sufficient evidence for you to be confirmed in my eyes. sorry but i have a policy of innate distrust in consensus town or ‘confirmed’ town as determined by the majority, until they hold up to my, much higher standards for being confirmed.
im explaining this in more detail than i would normally (i would have left it at the sentence starting “i say this because”) because i know there are a lot of people who haven’t played with me before, and would not know that this is an established policy i have due to my own history.

an_gorta_pratai:

Where do I even start with Simon? I think that Simon is harmful to the town regardless of alignment for simply refusing to read. Some of Simon’s posts seem wolfy as hell and being this obtuse to soak up shots does seem like something a wolf would do, but I don’t know. This also seems like something that could coming from a villager who is just being anti-town. If Simon is a villager then he needs to get reported for this because this is harmful behavior to the town.

an_gorta_pratai:

Why join a game if you refuse to read? @Simon if you refuse to read then you should replace out. It’s simple as that. This is just a haha funny game, but you are still expected to play.

what ici said

an_gorta_pratai:

He shouldn’t have joined the game then

normally i wouldnt have. this is a much too large game for my general liking, and i tend to prefer more off-the-walls games mechanics wise. and if it werent this particular game , if it weren’t community FM, i wouldn’t have
but community fm is special. i wanted to be here for this one.

an_gorta_pratai:

I didn’t propose killing him, but that “He’ll be useful later” part has me kind of sketched out. It has kind of a “I’m self resolving” feeling from Insurgency

i get that. but its more that my kind of play (no i dont mean only talking about mechanics and nothing else. if you think thats just how my play is please read some of my defense elsewhere in this wall or just elsewhere in the thread.) can start to come into relevance later on in the game, when there are less players, meaning my bad skills when it comes to reading up is less of a downside, and when more mechanical hooks for me to use for reads have been put out there. and yes i mean using a bit of mechanical stuff to make ai reads. it can be done, i have already done it before.

tbh im liking ici right now, so ill keep going through this, but i might have to skip ahead soon.
im going through posts slower than they’re being made. this is part of why reading up when theres a large log is not feasible for me. either i dont have the mental ability to do it or it takes way too long (been making this for the past few hours)

Icibalus:

/insult N.1

i believe thats 6

Chloe:

Villagers should suicide if it’s possible if they’re deep in the PoE without any chance of getting out as it’s better to suicide than to be an obvious mislynch.

tbf ive gotten out of being ‘this deep’ in poe before.

Okay maybe I should actually read something first. It leaves bad associations with both Ici and N. I think there wasn’t a socially based conclusion in there and his effort (this is what I meant with ScumSimon slanks) did significantly drop off after this.

I feel like I just want to believe that Simon is scum now though…

Let me dig up some games that I played with N to see what he actually does with his partners, because from what I remember on his meta is that he started out being incredibly fearful in his posting. He seemed to have changed that now to overdramatic rage, but those are meta-reads on him in isolation, not on his relations.

Solic · June 11, 2020, 11:21am

Wait I somehow confused N and Arete… uhhh… I must have some game where I played with Maxwell/N scum.

Solic · June 11, 2020, 11:34am

In evolution mafia, N just gave 2 very NAI short replies to a scumbud. Only interacted with his pushers who were town. He did talk to a lost wolf, but I’m not sure how informed he was of them there. (Nice trip down memory lane tbh)

I haven’t played anything else with him over several months it seems. Meh.

Solic · June 11, 2020, 11:39am

That aggression/dramatics is a whole new thing to me however. I guess I can see how his bad faith comment he had towards Simon could be also be used to justify his own bad push and soften it up a bit as Simon nor N was targeted hard by entire thread, so they didn’t need to bus each other or endgame.

I feel like I’m making this conclusion first and trying to rationalize it now.

This is still super off.

100000+ post threads are an annoyance with trying to ISO.

Welcome to meandering isolated EoD thoughts with Solic, because Hippo just liked and dipped.

I wonder if there would be any mechanical benefit for me to now also vote Simon or if that could possibly be used against me. In non-bastard sense voting scum should be a good thing, so I guess I’ll do that. Let’s hope he is scum.

WASTE as N would say at this post lul.

Solic · June 11, 2020, 11:54am

I hate flipless to be honest, but please keep some of these points in mind if for example Alice or Marshal ends up making it to F3 in regards to how “cleared” they are.

Solic · June 11, 2020, 11:56am

[Minimash] Community Forum Mafia 2 - Voting Thread

Vote Target Voted by Votes

Mist1422 MaximusPrime, Icibalus 2

Simon Leafia, Alice, Hippoyeetus, Marshal, DatBird, Geyde, Apprentice 8

Mist might also be town and this being the scum counterwagon to this. There was also CFD pressure yesterday to go unto Mist.

Solic · June 11, 2020, 12:02pm

This might also explain why I can’t make sense of anything.

But this mechanic is like the absolute worst thing, so I wouldn’t have to feel so bad about my reads not lining up since yesterday.

Hippolytus · June 11, 2020, 12:14pm

What a crazy EoD calm down everyone

Hippolytus · June 11, 2020, 12:14pm

Theres too many people posting I cant think clearly

Hippolytus · June 11, 2020, 12:15pm

I’d rather hang maxi over simon personally tbh

Solic · June 11, 2020, 12:16pm

Why?

Solic · June 11, 2020, 12:17pm

Btw wtf is the whole banana thing about?

Solic · June 11, 2020, 12:18pm

I’ve seen Italy/Geyde/Maxi say it now. Illuminati signals…? XD

Solic · June 11, 2020, 12:19pm

@Geyde
@MaximusPrime

Explain that banana business please.

Hippolytus · June 11, 2020, 12:22pm

Really?

Hippolytus · June 11, 2020, 12:22pm

Have u actually seen that that’s sus as fuck lmao

Vote Target	Voted by	Votes
Mist1422	MaximusPrime, Icibalus	2
Simon	Leafia, Alice, Hippoyeetus, Marshal, DatBird	6