do NOT give the beggar your dead vote @EVO @Magnus !!!
EVO you are already modconfirmed as the mutant and Magnus we know with near certainty that you really were the Flowergirl who the Demon desparately would have wanted to kill N1.
like seriously if the flowergirl outs D1 the demon should not under any circumstance kill any other person but them N2.
They’re just that dangerous to the demon the longer they live.
please remember that this is different from FM in the day/night progression
Instead of D1 --> N1 --> D2 --> N2 --> D3 --> N3 etc.
It is N1 --> D1 --> N2 --> D2 --> N3 --> D3 etc.
And if they’re the minion that fake claimed flower girl then the demon would still probably kill them
More so if no dashii, but it doesn’t have to be no dashii for this to gallery
The demon should never under any circumstances kill a minion in this setup unless they are a vigormortis
The probability that demon would kill an ott
I disagree. It depends on the minion, sure, (I am aware demon isn’t told which minion is which), but it could happen
Duh. I said that knowing this
I wholeheartedly disagree. All of the minions in this setup have a great deal of power every day they live.
It’s not like Baron where they start with something and do nothing for the rest of the game.
To solve through the Bishop’s alignment / get a new evil nominated tomorrow if the bishop is good, it it absolutely optimal to execute Nuclear today.
To finish this:
The probability that a demon would kill a claimed flower girl in and of itself is not enough here to find magnus’s alignment. We must consider the prior probabilities of both situations
What is the probability that a demon would kill a claimed flower girl, while knowing the other probability?
What is the probability that a demon would kill a minion claiming flower girl, while knowing the other probability?
Sure, demon likes their minions, but if the probability the demon would kill a claimed flower girl is so high, then the probability that the demon would let the flower girl live is low. Low enough that they might think we would hang the minion version of Magnus, If the demon let him live
Regardless i want to exile the beggar because the beggar cannot really give the town a net positive IMO even if good, and i scumread him
I don’t know if Magnus is town or not.
But I know that the fact that he was killed at night, and the probability that the demon would kill a claimed flower girl is not enough in and of itself to determine this
it isn’t. but it is better mechanical evidence than most things in this game thus far, and i also townread magnus