(Misc) Blood on the Forums 2 - Electric Fang Gu (Evil Wins)

[N.1]

No one evil died “early on”.
Both the D1 and D2 lynches are mechanically confirmed good players.

[N.1]

It’s not possible for the Pit Hag’s action to fail.

[N.1]

Perhaps others will be able to explain this better than I have when they’re online. Everything has already been fully considered and analyzed.

[N.1]

@N.1

Everything has already been fully considered and analyzed.

(via whisper, over the past 4+ in-game days)

[Wazza]

Yes it is, the fuck you on about?

[Wazza]

@Tangeld

Pit-Hag : Each night (but not the first), choose a player and a character; that player becomes that character (but their alignment does not change). If the character you choose is already in play, this ability fails. If you make a Demon, all deaths tonight are arbitrary (decided by the Storyteller).

[Wazza]

“If the character you choose is already in play, this ability fails.”
It’s literally in the class thing for it, what do you mean?

[N.1]

sorry, i forgot about this. Apologies.

[Wazza]

All good.

[Wazza]

I’m surprised literally nobody pointed it out to you though.

[Wazza]

Can you repost the whole class list btw?

[N.1]

It’s statistically incomprehensibly unlikely at the Pit Hag failed every single night.
If there was a Pit Hag, it mechanically must have been alive until at least Day 4. Meaning it must have had at least three nights to act. It’s not possible that they ever targeted a minion during that time since I was mad nights 2 and 3 and the cerenovous died day 4.
The chances that a pit hag’s actions all failed or were on the demon for 3-5 nights in a row are so improbable that they’re not worth considering.

[N.1]

No, I already knew this. I just had other reasoning for throwing out the possibility of a Pit Hag and misspoke there. Apologies.

[Wazza]

LIKE I SAID.
WE KILLED PIT HAG EARLY ON

[Wazza]

@Arete

EVO has been executed and night falls. Please send in your Night 2 actions if you have any. Night 2 will end in 24 hours, at March 6, 2020 3:00 AM .

Additionally, I think it was EVO.

[Wazza]

You know, our VERY FIRST KILL.

[N.1]

both the day 1 and 2 executions are 100% mechanically confirmed to have been good players . . .

[N.1]

Mechanically, EVO must have been the good Mutant. Any other possibility is mechanically impossible.

[N.1]

@N.1

• Marshal - Clockmaker Claim
• Wazza - Town Crier Claim
• DirectorHail - Snake Charmer Claim
• Magnus - Likely Good Flowergirl
• EVO - Mechanically Confirmed Good Mutant
• Shurian - Oracle Claim
• Universal - Likely Good Seamstress
• Insanity - Likely Good Savant
• Italy - probably Evil Cerenovus
• Datbird - Socially Confirmed Evil Bishop
• N.1 - Mechanically Confirmed Good Sage
• Geyde - Likely Good Dreamer
• Apprentice - Almost Certainly Good Beggar
• Vulgard - Mechanically Confirmed Good Barber unless Apprentice lied and there is no Vortox, which is a possibility we absolutely cannot afford to consider.

@N.1

Things we know for certain, assuming Vortox confirmed, which we must assume because 1) this game was never winnable whatsoever for good if both travelers were evil based on how it started, and 2) DatBird is socially confirmed evil:

1. If DirectorHail is good, Wazza must be the Vortox. DirectorHail claims snake charmer that targeted both Universal and Marshal with no effect. I believe this was N3 and N4 although it may have been N4 and N5; I’d have to look.
2. If Marshal is good, either Universal or Shurian must have been evil. The reason for this is that Universal claims Seamstress info that she saw Wazza and Hail as the same alignment, meaning they are of the opposite alignment (because this is a Vortox game). Cerenovous was dead then, so if we trusted Marshal, either Uni was legit and it was (Wazza or Hail) + Shurian, or Uni wasn’t legit and it was him + someone else. There is more logic we used to come to this conclusion in whispers that I’ll have to find later.
3. The way we were so certain that Italy was the Cerenovous was that: The Cerenovous targeted me both N1 and N2 and then targeted my corpse again N3. Geyde and I agreed that no one else besides Italy would have chosen to target a corpse or even known that targeting a corpse was possible. No one has ever been mad since Day 3, and if all minions were alive, the Demon would have no reason to not just kill the last townie N6 and just clinch the game. Therefore, at least one minion must be dead.
4. I’m not sure how good Shurian is at feigning ignorance. He did seem fairly lost in DM’s and in this thread, but on the other hand, he failed to give his deadvote to Apprentice and even nominated Apprentice for exile. We never did a Witch test, so unfortunately, we have no way of knowing if Shurian was the witch, or we just got lucky with nominations ever since DatBird died. If the witch is alive, the game is harder now because we only have one shot if only one townie is alive.

More points to come later.

@Wazza

[N.1]

let me try again to help you understand @Wazza
In this game, no one can be forcibly executed by the storyteller, instead of getting executed by plurality at EoD, except for the Mutant or the person who was targeted by the Cerenovous the previous night.

I was targeted by the Cerenovous night 1. Therefore, EVO must have been the Mutant.