NDFM - Dead Villager Chat

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#1421

That doesn’t look right.

#1422

Looks like 6.

#1423

Well assuming 5 percent for town and guessing 19 town alive at that point

.95^19 = .37% 37 percent chance of no deaths

#1424

Odds of one death is 19 choose 1 * .05 * .95^18 = around 37%

Odds of two deaths is 19 choose 2 * .05^2 * .95 ^17 = around 17%

Three deaths is 19 choose three * .05^3 * .95 ^ 16 = around 5%

Looks astronomically low that 7 deaths should have happened. Rng is a fickle beast. Now the more the numbers go up the more swing there is.

#1425

We had 5 deaths, several of the shots only hitting because of 40+% hitrate shots
That would massively skew the results

#1426

Sounds about right. Take 40% enough times you’re bound at least one hits.

#1427

Yeah it’s like I said fuck with the numbers and you’ll end up with a lot of deaths and a lot more combinatorics.

#1428

You hit both your 40% shots :^)

#1429

What I have learned from this game: If MathBlade is wrong, he’s scum

#1430

I am a math nerd. Odds of that assuming 40% which I don’t want to leak if that’s right or not is .4^2 which is ohhh 16% odds.

Happens.

#1431

Don’t play with me on Mafiascum. My rep over there is if I am right I am scum XD

#1432

I play on other sites to get better as town which I am decent on MU but on MS craptastic.

#1433

One thing about Math’s play which I did call out correctly was their associations based off of Magnus

1 Like
#1434

I am literally the swingiest player in existence

#1435

It felt unnatural at first and made perfect sense if Magnus flipped scum

#1436

Which you proceeded to drown out yourself.

I thought you cop checked me from the grave XD

#1437

And of course Alice would have bastardized it or something :stuck_out_tongue:

#1438

Like I have no clue how you townread me.

#1439

Getting dayvigged is an experience

#1440

You were alone in thread for the most part.
I would think your scum buddies would come to help out your case if it caused 4+ town flips