Newbie Forum of Lies 1 - The Blue Dragon and Fool win!

Forum Matches Forum of Lies
#988

Ok then.

I know that this CFD will not likely work since it;s an inactive person, but I still find them slightly sus. Maybe a bit more than Captain so…

/Vote Rabbit

#989

Hello?

What else can I do but investigate other people?

#990

Use your day action
Make cases on players that are based in logic and have a point in going somewhere

You’re a veteran player I shouldn’t have to say this to you.

#991

And I have given my reason time and time again. The fact that you keep using a false dichotomy to try and motivate your argument is not my problem. The chance that he’s a MM is significantly higher if he’s checked as special/invest. That’s just a mere fact.

#992

Use your day action to check me as royal. I wonder if you’ll get it right.

#993

The thing is this. Do I wanna waste the RB checks willy nilly? I’m limited on them, and those are mainly used to counter those that claim to have rb and they don’t really.

#994

Well it’s your choice, but the crowd is hungry…,

#995

There is no truth to statement found here. You are not doing anything to find any other scum today. You are literally just tunneling on Wolfy over and over.

#996

Ok then. I’ll use one of them now if needs be. I have to survive the night though.

#997

It’s not a false dichotomy.

Every player is or is not MM. That is a fact.

The fact that he is a spec/inves if Livicus is telling the truth is actually no more or less odds. It’s just not exclusionary. Everyone had the same odds of being MM at the start of the game. The odds do not change because you get new facts. It’s still 1/16.

In fact the odds say more often than not you actually “swap cases” or doors here if you’re looking for MM. Monty Hall problem

#998

So am I a royal or not?

#999

That is a false dichotomy.

Every player is or is not MM does not mean that every player has a 50 percent chance to be a MM or not to be a MM. Conditional on the fact that we have a special/invest check, the chance is much higher.

#1000

I am not tunneling. I am merely countering the lack of reasoning towards dismantling the Wolfy wagon. Most early game wagons dissipate if there is a good reason. There just isn’t here.

#1001

Can’t tell you now you know.

#1002

I know, but once the result gets in.

#1003

Most early game wagons are not fueled by newbie sheep.

#1004

Results come eod. You might need to check up more on the card

#1005

Assume MM is in the game. (Which is again benefit of doubt)

Each player has a 1/16 chance of being MM.

No matter how many investigatives happen that odds is always 1/16.

The only thing that the spec/inves check if true gives is that they are still a possible mastermind. It does nothing to the odds.

#1006

It eliminates them being Assassin/NK, which are both way better targets for a D1 lynch.

#1007

Plus king is not MM and you yourself are not MM, so it’s actually 1/14th purely on random chance.