Psychology, "taking risks" and how it affects games like ToL

#1

Hey all,

I just want to discuss classes like Hunter and King and when they protect themselves and how it affects attacking classes.

So what is the usual king guard/hunter bear scenario?

Hunter:
Bear N1-3
Bear odd nights if unseen, even if cult (what I do)
Bear never/until late game

King:
Guard n1 but not N2 then guard strategically (me)
Guard n1-5 (n3 if EK)
(If there’s other guard/bear tactics I’ll edit them in)

So how come people do this?

For those that bear/guard n1-3, it’s mostly a matter of making it to late game. The problem here is bears and protective abilities are more useful late game.

Otherwise it’s how the classes are designed and what people do with them.

Reaper cannot use empower d1 without risking a knight/hunter/attack against the reaper. After he picks up another soul, he is free to empower reap and Risk a knight hit. If king guards, it doesn’t matter since it goes through death immunity.

However, there’s been an influx of possessing/attacking king n1 due to the fact that there’s less guards overall.

In cult games, the usual is to convert on odd nights and kill 2 on even. Although this pattern is disturbed if the convert fails, there are few non-convert classes in one time, almost guaranteeing a convert. Compared to unseen, where they kill every night and convert every 2, this seems fairly balanced and makes plays a little different. Protective abilities are used on even nights in cult games. If you miss 1 kill as cult you’re down a kill compared to unseen. If the CL is occupied then that’s 2 kills down. 2 nights compared to unseen.

Unseen games are a little different. Like cult, you have a 2 day convert but this time every night you can kill if you have an assassin. In these kinds of games, you’re more susceptible to stuff on odd nights, since that’s when you can convert and kill someone.

Here’s another thing, bearing n1. Is it worth? By math, there’s 2 cult, you, and let’s assume the king doesn’t get attacked n1. That would make the chances of being targeted about 1/13 or 7.7% n1. It’s decent, but keep in mind you can easily leave early while dead without getting punished. So why do people do it? This one kinda fascinates me now.

So what’s my point? I’m rambling on in this post so I’ll wrap it up. Psychology is a big factor in games like these and protective abilities should be used sparingly, but strategically.

I’m interested in your thoughts in the comments. How should hunters and Kings use their abilities in your opinions?

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#2

My opinion is King should always guard self n1 then ask for protectives n2, then guard strategically after. Since the meta seems to be NK attacks king n1 hoping he’s Evil King who can’t wait to use Allies.

As Hunter I always bear the first three nights, but it’s a low-risk, low-reward strat. I just do it to make sure I survive unconverted to mid game.

#3

As any class with a self defense ability I never use it N1.

If you die N1 then join another game. If I don’t then I am ahead by 1 self defense ability

#4

I hate dying N1

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#5

I don’t care about dying N1. It is the same as having not been in the game at all.

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#6

Depends if I die as a Sellsword N1 I want to rip my hair out but if it’s a court wizard it’s like yeah nah cw sucks

#7

That’s both irrelevant and a silly way of thinking

#8

I tend to stick around myself because I really enjoy practicing my scum reading in games which I already know I can’t effect the game (so zero pressure).

That being said, onto the topic of protecting n1. I generally don’t just on statistics. on a practical level the odds of dying on n1 are only about 1 in 9ish (as cult isn’t likely to be killing n1. but also some to adjust for unseen/cult not having themselves as targets.

Whatever the case it’s the lowest odds of dying night in the game (barring NK dying before n2 starts which is pretty darn rare)

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#9

For Hunter, I no action for the first 2 nights as you are statistically unlikely to be attacked. Once you can bear 3 nights in a row afterward and survive until Day 6, you know who scum are at this point and start wolfing away.

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