I actually think most people have accepted him as a villager atm
Can you expand on this one
I really wanna figure derps out
And im having doubts rn wrt my w-read there im ngl
This genuinely concerns me
Not like
With regards to your alignment
But im 99% sure derps and atno are the same alignment simply based off of wind spew
So in a world where we wagon atno and derps dies to arcticâs vig thing
Its 2 villagers or 2 wolves to me
And if theyre villagers we have like 8h to figure shit out (no we arent wagoning katze!!!)
I also recently reread marshalâs iso and along the way i re-read appâs openwolfing thing and i genuinely think its like
Really (unfortunately) townie
But atno today has been Bad
And YBW was also Bad
Aaaaaaaaa idk dude!!
25% is consensus poe iâd say
Zone is in the zone-zone
Most people acknowledge hes in townmeta but capable of faking it and thats that lmao
Marl is v-read for the most part im p sure
For the record
If derps is a villager i think marshalâs scum equity rises by about 5000%
And now im doubting myself and paranoid about marshal
Dude i REALLY need to sleep to be awake for eod but at this rate imma get like 4h of sleep lol
I think eli has also had a really shitty day and i can easily see him being a wolf
I townread him d1 and had a gth v-read on him coming into the day but i legit dont see how people can have him as a confident villager
Hes tossing out votes and reads that match thread consensus
Cant explain anything and instead uses buzzwords and goes âuhhhhhh. ur scum bc ur scummyâ
thereâs a massive disconnect in how people are treating âliterally every voter on Windâ and how people are treating Derps
like with Wind people are more-or-less willing to lockclear everyone on her wagon, individual people might leave someone out (like, some people are like âMarl could be bussing,â some people are like 'Jane doesnât get as much cred because she was stuck on the wagon from a point when it wouldnât have killed her)
whereas with Derps people are looking at the fact that Wind spent the entire second half of the day trying as hard as possible to kill Derps, and going out of her way to write a wallcase on him, and saying âwell this doesnât mean anything, it could be bussingâ
even though she was objectively trying harder to kill Derps than any individual voter was trying to kill her
the situations arenât 100 percent comparable â Wind was KP and so a wolf would be less likely to kill her, some of the people on the Wind wagon have some level of known anti-bussing meta while Windâs meta is less of a known quantity â but frankly the way the people leading the thread are treating the two situations is weird
(the other thing I notice is that on some level, thereâs a handful of âpeople who are always strong presencesâ arguing that Derps isnât spewed, e.g. katze/Marshal, and a lot of people who arenât usually strong presences arguing that he is, or that heâs a villager for other reasons, e.g. Gorta, which is ⊠well, normally I think I would agree with the âstrong presencesâ group, and itâs weird that I donât?)
Im
99% on this just spewing them both as villagers
It absolutely spews them as the same alignment and⊠that treatment of derps doesnt feel like a planned bus
Im literally about to sleep and have no clue if this will make sense but heres some world building:
App/Derps V/W or W/V
If you push extremely hard for the dichotomy that theyâre unaligned, and call for a vig shot on the other if one flips town, then:
If your scumbud is elimâd, you have essentially cleared the other as a villager
If the villager is elimâd, your scumbud will be shot
No.
Thats stupid
App/Derps W/W
This is the heavy distancing theory in which wind was trying to clear the surviving wolf off of the other oneâs flip
If one of your scumbuds is openwolfing and the other is getting flak and being wagoned, the best thing you can do is make people believe theyâre v/w
App/Derps V/V
Occamâs Razor says yes.
Wind was setting them up to be elimâd and the other to be shot.
Two villagers for the price of one
Arete i really want you to sleep soon so you can be awake at EoD
Like really badly
Im going to be honest and say that i dont have the energy to read the post youre writing and all iâd be doing is acknowledging it right now because my eyes are heavy and imsotired
So im gunna sleep and iâll read it in the morning when i wake up and can comprehend it
the first point is relatively simple but itâs controversial enough that Iâm going to do my best to explain it anyway
so obviously a thing I talk about when Iâm complaining about townplay on this site is that everyone sucks at reading spew, and I donât want to stop at the level one take of âWindward called Derps scum therefore Derps is townâ
but
thereâs a couple things I generally look at when Iâm trying to figure that out, which Iâm going to gloss roughly as âwhat was the dead wolf actually trying to accomplishâ (i.e., if a wolf spent a lot of time calling someone a wolf but never actually tried to kill them, then it doesnât spew them town and might be wolf-AI) and âdo the dead wolfâs posts make sense from a PoV of them having TMI that [player] was [alignment]â
so first, if we look at Windâs votes
I might have missed something, but this is legitimately all I could find in terms of votes â the meme vote on herself, and a vote on Derps. sheâs not at all reluctant to kill Derps, and she never looks for other options
next, if I look at her actual posts, and ask the question âdid Wind really want to kill Derps,â I think itâs pretty clear that she did â she basically took every opportunity to push him, and wrote a Wind wallpost to case him, itâs not just isolated instances of shade or anything
so on that metric he looks good
notable Wind posts on Derps
so then I can ask if her posts make more sense from a PoV of having TMI that he would flip scum vs. that he would flip town
to her credit thereâs ⊠not a ton there that actually points to it, sheâs not blatantly trying to take credit for his death (which would suggest scum) nor preemptively trying to excuse herself for it (which would suggest town), in that respect there isnât much to go on
(this post does exist but itâs really early and a throwaway comment, before she made a strong read either way)
but I do think her handling of Derps postflip scenarios displays TMI that heâs V full disclosure I only fully thought through this part just now
specifically:
if you read these posts and ask what sheâs âexpecting,â itâs pretty obvious sheâs expecting him to flip town â sheâs explicitly setting up scenarios for what to do once Derps flips town whereas she treats the âif Derps flips scumâ scenarios as an afterthought, to the point of adding a âlol.â Also, she never (that I could find) tried to imply that anyone might be suspicious for defending Derps, or for defending Derps conditional-on-him-flipping-scum. She isnât trying to plan for scenarios where he flips scum, just scenarios where he flips town.
this is the part of the post where I start talking about his posts
I thought Derps openly and explicitly saying that he thought Gorta was lock V but that he should be vigged anyway was unlikely to come from scum, like I donât think a wolf would say that if they put two seconds of thought into appearances
I thought his lack of thread awareness here pointed to him probably not being in scumchat, it doesnât really feel like itâs faked and I think itâs unlikely that scumchat just wouldnât be discussing the game at all. this is a weak read but itâs something I remember picking up on.
I thought his analysis of Jane made sense even if I donât necessarily agree with it + his progression seemed natural
I also donât think he would push a bussing narrative as a wolf when one of the biggest points in his favor is Windâs push
there arenât, like, a lot of posts like this, he doesnât have a lot of posts today period, but theyâre displaying sparks of towniness
God youre such a villager
I skimmed the entire thing and my thoughts are summed up as
âYeah this makes sense. Oh yeah thats a good point. Oh wtf lol yeah thats super valid. Wait what the fuck. Yeah this is. Ok yeah derps is just V.â Which⊠makes ATN v to me
Ugh how long until I have to acknowledge your read on kat
I really dont wanna
Anywyas
Marshal/kat started the derps-not-spewed-v arguments
Dont think theyre w/w because of d1 âbitchinessâ but ig its possible im in denial and i still dont think kat is a wolf leave me alone
Marshal felt powerwolfy wrt zone and derps
Chloe is throwing shit in the thread without filtering bc shes tired
Glhf
Thanks for giving me a reason to give in to the paranoia and doubts ive been having all day love u
Eli, NGL, I have been ignoring your 200+ posts for reasons even beyond me, but I am loving this entrance.
Sounds about right. YBW never came back to be evaluated, and ATNN is⊠well, I disagree with ATNNâs reads regarding Windâs wagon (and myself).
I object to this plan. I stated at D1 that I would be fine with keeping tabs on the darkvotes, but I also said that I disagree with any motion involving coordinated votes.