Though to be fair, with Derps all but guaranteed to flip W fmpov, and Eli all but guaranteed to be a villager based on spew + not belonging to many worlds, the yeet order is completely irrelevant as long as we go with Derps first and you don’t yeet me.
Old game, but this is the last Hippo wolfgame I remember. The posts quoted comprise the biggest push he made all game. The push is mostly OMGUS from the looks of it.
Compare this to these.
[quote=“Hippoyeetus, post:3976, topic:87956”]
this was you at end of D1 with me at top end of your reads (when I was defending you from Eli)
not even in ur team towards end of D1
then D2 after I started saying you have made such little sense you are probably mafia you come up with this read. and since then you have been saying im mafia but you dont give any other reasons, just stuff like this:
You gave one post where you actually gave decent reasons where I might be mafia:
The bolded also strongly indicates a lack of TMI to me.
Another take from very early on.
Compare this to his wolfgame, again. The level of thought and level of caring about his reads are quite different.
I’ve reached the conclusion Eli is just town, Derps is just mafia, Arete/Blizer/Atlas has 2/3 wolves and the people I haven’t named are all villagers. As long as you trust me, the game should be won.
If it were up to me, I’d kill both Atlas and Blizer before Arete. Arete’s case on me was wrong, but didn’t look like bad faith. If Arete does flip wolf, I might pull an “I told you so” but I probably won’t care enough. Atlas and Blizer are also wolves in more worlds than Arete, and I’ve questioned Blizer’s views numerous times already. I think he’s mostly self-preserving rather than looking for wolves.
And before you ask me about the risks again, there are two ways we lose the game if you follow this plan:
Eli/Arete are both wolves
Marshal/Hippo/Arctic/Mistyx/Vulgard contains a wolf
Marshal is a villager. Combination of massive postcount, several good reads I liked, knowing Arctic was PR from day 1 (and proving that she knew) without Arctic dying in the night. I know I’ve called Marshal a wolf several times, but I’m not tunnely enough not to recognize everything that points to Marshal town here.
Hippo is a villager. He’s out of wolfrange. His depth of thought, level of caring about his reads, and tonal notes all outshine what he’s capable of as a wolf. Him leveling up as a wolf is not unreasonable, but I don’t think it would reach this level.
Arctic and Mistyx are both claimed town PRs with no counterclaims, Mistyx even has a confirmed shot. If you think either of those are wolves then you either haven’t read anything or you are pepega.
Whether you believe Vulgard is a villager or not is your prerogative, but I hope I made it obvious today. I’m the only person who has made a definitive plan to win the game, argued for it, made sure we couldn’t lose to anything that has a reasonable chance of being true. I might’ve made mistakes, had weird progression, backed off my reads for no good reason, but that’s because I am town and I have no TMI to help me build better-sounding arguments.
Eli/Arete both being wolves would require Marl to bus all his partners on day 1 (which I don’t think even a busser at his level does) +1 villager, and on day 2 (his wolflist on day 2 was Eli/lol/Derps). The day 2 part happened before it was revealed that min had tracked him to the nightkill. Again, Marl is a busser, but even Marl doesn’t do this. You can argue that he does, indeed, do this, but I think the chance is very small. Also, it would require Eli voting his partner at EoD3 instead of any of the two village alternatives (Blizer and PKR). Again, why. Eli may not be opposed to bussing on principle, but he has no discernible reason to help kill a partner there. He doesn’t need the towncred, nobody is looking at him.
vul if you were in a hypothetical F3 with me and eli i would vote you over eli
with that said i do not think you/arete are ever w/w so like
i would just switch you two in that list
100% understand that. There’s a lot more that looks bad for me than there is that looks bad for Eli. If Eli is a wolf here then kudos for the wolves maneuvering in such a weird way that didn’t make them look like partners. I would still try to case him in that f3 but if town lost there because of you voting me I wouldn’t be mad.
The problem is that in a world where Blizer/Derps/Atlas isn’t the exact team, voting me after them means you lose to wolf!Arete (it’s f4). The optimal play there is for me/Arete to crossvote and the other two players alive to tiebreak. Apparently we can’t no-yeet, which would be optimal otherwise to force a f3 with me and Arete crossvoting 100% of the time there.
If the game does go to f4 with me/Arete +2 then I don’t envy the +2 that have to vote correctly.
Though at that point I hope people will realize that my plan killed two wolves, while Arete spent most of their time today trying to push me over said wolves.
About an hour until EoD. I want everyone to be voting Derps. If anyone else flips today and doesn’t flip mafia we’re in a worse spot on day 5.
Or you vote me, but if you vote me then it’s a Haru Okumura moment right there. Except my entire play until the last couple of hours wasn’t nearly as good as Haru’s.
There are like 2 people alive who will get that reference, but yeah.
dunno if day is ober rn or not (assuming its not but i guess ill play it safe) but i have thoughts if it isn’t
