Another take from very early on.
Compare this to his wolfgame, again. The level of thought and level of caring about his reads are quite different.
Iāve reached the conclusion Eli is just town, Derps is just mafia, Arete/Blizer/Atlas has 2/3 wolves and the people I havenāt named are all villagers. As long as you trust me, the game should be won.
If it were up to me, Iād kill both Atlas and Blizer before Arete. Areteās case on me was wrong, but didnāt look like bad faith. If Arete does flip wolf, I might pull an āI told you soā but I probably wonāt care enough. Atlas and Blizer are also wolves in more worlds than Arete, and Iāve questioned Blizerās views numerous times already. I think heās mostly self-preserving rather than looking for wolves.
And before you ask me about the risks again, there are two ways we lose the game if you follow this plan:
Eli/Arete are both wolves
Marshal/Hippo/Arctic/Mistyx/Vulgard contains a wolf
Marshal is a villager. Combination of massive postcount, several good reads I liked, knowing Arctic was PR from day 1 (and proving that she knew) without Arctic dying in the night. I know Iāve called Marshal a wolf several times, but Iām not tunnely enough not to recognize everything that points to Marshal town here.
Hippo is a villager. Heās out of wolfrange. His depth of thought, level of caring about his reads, and tonal notes all outshine what heās capable of as a wolf. Him leveling up as a wolf is not unreasonable, but I donāt think it would reach this level.
Arctic and Mistyx are both claimed town PRs with no counterclaims, Mistyx even has a confirmed shot. If you think either of those are wolves then you either havenāt read anything or you are pepega.
Whether you believe Vulgard is a villager or not is your prerogative, but I hope I made it obvious today. Iām the only person who has made a definitive plan to win the game, argued for it, made sure we couldnāt lose to anything that has a reasonable chance of being true. I mightāve made mistakes, had weird progression, backed off my reads for no good reason, but thatās because I am town and I have no TMI to help me build better-sounding arguments.
Eli/Arete both being wolves would require Marl to bus all his partners on day 1 (which I donāt think even a busser at his level does) +1 villager, and on day 2 (his wolflist on day 2 was Eli/lol/Derps). The day 2 part happened before it was revealed that min had tracked him to the nightkill. Again, Marl is a busser, but even Marl doesnāt do this. You can argue that he does, indeed, do this, but I think the chance is very small. Also, it would require Eli voting his partner at EoD3 instead of any of the two village alternatives (Blizer and PKR). Again, why. Eli may not be opposed to bussing on principle, but he has no discernible reason to help kill a partner there. He doesnāt need the towncred, nobody is looking at him.
vul if you were in a hypothetical F3 with me and eli i would vote you over eli
with that said i do not think you/arete are ever w/w so like
i would just switch you two in that list
100% understand that. Thereās a lot more that looks bad for me than there is that looks bad for Eli. If Eli is a wolf here then kudos for the wolves maneuvering in such a weird way that didnāt make them look like partners. I would still try to case him in that f3 but if town lost there because of you voting me I wouldnāt be mad.
The problem is that in a world where Blizer/Derps/Atlas isnāt the exact team, voting me after them means you lose to wolf!Arete (itās f4). The optimal play there is for me/Arete to crossvote and the other two players alive to tiebreak. Apparently we canāt no-yeet, which would be optimal otherwise to force a f3 with me and Arete crossvoting 100% of the time there.
If the game does go to f4 with me/Arete +2 then I donāt envy the +2 that have to vote correctly.
Though at that point I hope people will realize that my plan killed two wolves, while Arete spent most of their time today trying to push me over said wolves.
About an hour until EoD. I want everyone to be voting Derps. If anyone else flips today and doesnāt flip mafia weāre in a worse spot on day 5.
Or you vote me, but if you vote me then itās a Haru Okumura moment right there. Except my entire play until the last couple of hours wasnāt nearly as good as Haruās.
There are like 2 people alive who will get that reference, but yeah.
dunno if day is ober rn or not (assuming its not but i guess ill play it safe) but i have thoughts if it isnāt
I skimmed the last 60 posts
a couple people said they wanted to ask me things , I think @Blizer was one of them, @Marshal might have been too but I forget
anyways I am here
ask me things
>:(
if the case is too many words can you just read through section 1-B
I think thatās the one where Iām the most, like, āI cannot understand how this comes from a villager in any worldā
unrelatedly
how to do preflip analysis according to people in this game
two people you already think are wolves are defending each other
āthis must mean that theyāre wolves defending each other because wolves donāt want wolves to get executedā
two people you think are wolves are pushing each other
āthis must mean that theyāre wolves defending each other for towncredā
someone you think is a wolf is defending someone you think is a villager
āthis must mean they have TMIā
someone you think is a wolf is pushing someone you think is a villager
āthis must be agendaā
how to do postflip analysis according to people in this game
someone you think is a wolf defended/was defended by a wolf
āthis is W/W because Mafia would want to save their partnersā
someone you think is a wolf pushed/was pushed by a wolf
āthis is W/W because wolves/Marl might bus their partners for towncredā
someone you think is a wolf pushed a villager
āthey must have been a wolf trying to misyeet themā
someone you think is a wolf defended a villager
āthey must have been mafia with TMIā
My current world is something in the realm of Derps and Blizer are mafia members who deliberately tried to keep PKR alive as a miselim for later