Oh lol oop
Vote Count
| Accused | Voters | Number |
|---|---|---|
| PokemonKidRyan | Hippoyeetus | 1/7 |
| Not voting | Ami, ArcticXI, Atlas, EliThePsycho, lol, Marshal, min, Mistyx, PokemonKidRyan, SirDerpsAlot, Vulgard | 11 |
I wolfread Marshal coming into the day with an extensive read on me written during the night phase, as if she knows neither me nor she will die in the night.
i said the same thing about lol but iāve come to realise that trying to save crich was a lost cause with what he was doing
i donāt think you can really push someone based on this
agreed, it was a bit odd tbh
wow derps isnāt neighbourizer
didnāt see that one coming 
Prewritten post for SoD. I rarely do this, but I thought about the game overnight and reached the conclusion I was approaching the game wrong. Here's Wonderwall.
Meh.
With Mistyx and min being outed PRs, my PoE looks like this:
PKR/Marshal/lol/Ami
I am pretty sure this PoE always wins the game.
Derps is in his townmeta. Iām pretty good at reading him historically, so Iām banking on being correct this time as well. The reason heās in his townmeta is the fact his ISO is low on content and he hasnāt really tried to change that at any point whatsoever. This is town indicative of Derps, because mafia Derps likes to post some reads every now and then at least. Besides, Iād expect him to be more invested in the game if he were mafia.
Eli is town because the density of actual reads and worthwhile takes in his ISO is higher than it would be if he were mafia. I checked the BOTF game he played as scum, and the postcounts are similar, but the content density is different.
Vulgard is town.
Nightingale is town because of a combination of Marl spew + Appelās day 1 being pretty villagery + Zori posting reads first and foremost upon replacing in, despite barely being able to spell. Wolf!Zori would be far more likely to take the āI am sleep-deprivedā excuse and dip. Nobody would fault her for it.
Arctic is town by sheer volume and the quality of his solving. The one wolfgame he played here was nowhere near this level of volume and density of valuable content. If he is a wolf this game, heās playing at least 3x as well as he did in his last wolfgame. Reevaluate if he lives too long, because if he is indeed playing by far the best wolfgame of his life, he is going to get far at this rate.
Hippo is town because his day 1 is simply out of range. His thought process is fluid, he does not feel stilted at any point whatsoever. This is important because mafia!Hippo forces out posts a lot instead of letting them come naturally.
Atlas is town because of volume and the fact they seem eager to provide actual reads and participate in the game. A wolf at this level wouldnāt have so many reads and absolutely 0 hedging. There is no point where Atlas hedges, and I find that unlikely to be the case if they were wolfing, because there would be an element of not wanting to take responsibility for incorrect reads.
Kill Ami/PKR/Marshal/lol in any order, really.
BlueLance claimed VT, talked about Principles of Playing the Game for 10 posts and then dipped. The VT claim is towny in a vacuum but not in-context. The way he did it looks like it was done for towncred, to emulate nonchalance. Ami isnāt much better; Amiās first posts are selfvoting and the next posts are voting/pushing Eli for no discernible reason. It looks like they picked a viable wagon and pushed it to look immediately productive, rather than actually believing the read.
PKR is someone I flipped my read on overnight, because his early ISO is pretty terrible. Even if I assume his mental state is not the best, he offers almost no thoughts of his own unless prodded. When Arctic prods him about the reasoning behind his Chloe read, PKR clams up and doesnāt provide a decent explanation. He spends many of his early posts complaining about being voted, and almost never offers insights on the gamestate/peopleās alignments/literally anything unless told to do so. This isnāt a villager who feels boxed in, this is a wolf whose thread position is terrible and who has no idea how to climb out of the hole.
Marshal is a strong wolf, and since she is a strong wolf, I expect her to make strong plays. Iāve talked about the Marl read thing before, and while my reasoning was based on a post that didnāt exist, Marshal did talk a lot about how Marl was likely town, continuing into day 2. The fact her read wasnāt predicated on CRichās flip to begin with doesnāt mean anything here. I havenāt loved the way she played the early game, her posts read like a wolf trying to fit into the thread and figure out what she can do. Marl taking over for Marshalās push I interpreted as W/W originally but I donāt think itās that clearing upon re-reading. I think itās viable from wolf partners as a distancing move and cooperative move simultaneously. (Same push target, seemingly different read sources.) Her reaction to my push on day 2 was also pure AtE and waxing poetic about hypotheticals when it doesnāt bring anything to the game. When I backed out of my read, she had an oddly careful reaction to it and to evaluating me further; I think itās indicative of her being unsure how to treat her read on me after everything that happened.
lol is actually my least confident wolfread on the list. I did some meta hunting, and the complexity of lolās thought in this game seems relatively high compared to the wolfgame(s) Iāve seen from him. The main reason I donāt townread him, aside from his mentions of wanting to get yeeted, is the fact he could easily be powerwolfing with his reads. Not only are most of his takes poorly reasoned, but heās not very transparent with his thought process. His reads look more like heās steering the thread than actually believing in what he says. He reevaluates depending on how the thread goes, but seldom comments on it, either. Having said all this, though, I think heās the most likely player of these four to actually be a villager, and I would flip him last if I had my way.
I kinda want to flip Marshal first, given the fact most people would be scared to push her. Least OK with killing lol today.
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Vul for what itās worth as either alignment I wasnāt planning on going very hard this game
Iv been getting a little burnt out so like, I mostly planned to focus on my enjoyment this game
Not sure if that changes your read on me but
Oh, and Marshalās annoyances with being wolfread for her treatment of Marl are blown out of proportion in a way I consider wolfy. Iād expect v!Marshal to roll with the punches more, rather than AtE to hell and back and complain how one misread is shoving her into the PoE.
__
Also, about Amiās conduct; I struggle to believe a villager replaces in before EoD and places an immediate vote with no context on one of the top wagons, who is also likely V. If youāre a villager, you care about who gets yeeted, because you want to vote wolves. As wolf, you have fewer reasons to give a damn unless your partnerās on the block.
Ami defaulting to a selfvote and then voting a random top wagon with no explanation is wolfy, because it shows no real solving thought process behind the vote. The argument āAmi would want to be voting someone regardless of alignmentā is flawed, because town!Ami would want to be voting a wolf, and there is no way Ami had a real scumread on Eli so soon after replacing in. Ami doesnāt even try to prove they have a real read there.
Town!Ami would also be more likely to just follow the consensus, considering they have no time to read the game. Ami not voting CRich is actually bad in this context, because it looks like Ami wanted to vote against consensus on purpose. And prioritizing making your vote look spicier over voting a wolf (or at least, the person the village thinks is a wolf / is policy yeeting / whatever) is a wolf mindset. Itās not like Ami has a real scumread on Eli, there is simply no way.
I donāt really care which one we flip.
Signal boosting this. Explanations are in the post.
/vote PKR @Aelin
