why are you giving me non serious answers
(this is a serious question)
I want to make it clear that I understand people wolfreading me for my play in general, but I do think I left my wolfrange with the worldbuilding Iāve just done. Make of that what you will.
The post about wanting to flip V but it being bad play was there partly as a reaction test and partly because it felt nice to post it. I am once again back to thinking scumreading me is valid but that I ought to prevent it somehow and actually get us to vote a wolf today. Hence my detailed world analysis.
I will insist upon yeeting Derps until the end of today. Almost every world with Derps makes sense and heās done the least, both this phase and last phase, compared to even Atlas and Eli. This lack of investment makes him difficult to sort out, and leaving him until tomorrow, when we might have MyLo, is a terrible idea. Having an unsortable slot that fits most wolf worlds makes the next day so, so much harder, because you constantly have to wonder if not voting Derps means youāre losing to a lowposting wolf or not.
6 hours of sleep club, lessgo.
You may ask me why Iām not calling Derps wolfy independently, only by proxy. Iāve seen people ask me this question before. And the reason is that he hasnāt done enough for me to get an accurate read on him. I had an early vibe townread on him, but keeping it there even now would be reckless of me. Thereās nothing that says Derps couldnāt have been coasting on that read, and on doing nothing, for the entire game. You could argue his lack of investment is NAI, but he can do that on purpose as a wolf and has done that on purpose as a wolf in a game he played with me in the past. I did not townread him on a lack of investment, merely how I felt about him in the moment. However, I do not feel confident enough in that read to keep it up now, three days later. Itās not enough to go on.
The one thing that gives me pause about Derps is that I feel like people would try to steer away from him more if he were mafia, but everyoneās shrugging at a Derps kill. I see some things I could point to as indirect defenses, though, like Arete treating the slot like a shrug without bothering to seriously evaluate its alignment (and focusing much more on other slots today), and Blizer pushing almost everywhere, except on Derps (+ trying to convince me, and the thread, that Marshal/Derps looks like W/V rather than W/W or even V/V). If Derps flips mafia, these two slots look like the most likely partners, though Blizer looks worse than Arete for outright refusing to push him, though never directly saying it.
And before someone complains about me making preflips; Iām trying to solve the whole game, and that means I will make some preflip reads. Finding one wolf isnāt enough in this gamestate. I want to have a baseline of operations for future flips.
I agree with Mistyx that Blizer has substantial wolf equity, but at this point my main argument for not yeeting him today is the fact Derps is the safest choice. Besides, the way Derps has been playing until now, he isnāt going to get resolved if you leave him alive. Unless he enters the thread and proves me wrong, but still.
If we kill Blizer and he flips W, great. But if Blizer flips V, you absolutely have to look at Derps once more, and the punishment for reading him wrong is much higher.
Killing Derps first leads to the same outcome @ Blizer (the punishment for reading him wrong is higher), but Blizer has actual content to read him on, and weāll have additional context with a Derps flip. Flipping Blizer says almost nothing about Derps if Blizerās V. If Blizerās W, it does say something about Derps (Blizerās treatment of Derps), but itās still a risk.
You could argue that Derpsās flip says nothing about his partners if heās mafia and nothing at all if heās town, but it removes the greatest risk factor. Misyeeting him now carries less punishment than it would carry tomorrow, and if heās mafia, great ā one wolf down, two to go.
Misyeeting Blizer means we still have to evaluate Derps and we still have no idea what his alignment is. If Blizerās mafia, we can yeet Derps right after and do it risk-free, but thatās only if Blizerās mafia.
Yeeting Derps, regardless of Derpsās alignment, removes a major risk factor and is likely to kill a wolf if the worlds are correct.
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The reason I put Atlas second in the yeet order is largely founded on the same principle, though in Atlasās case I could be convinced to put Blizer before them based on their experience level. I think Atlas has been given too easy of a pass so far, but I understand why the easy pass is being given, if that makes sense.
I 100% understand if you think Iām trying to push through misyeets, but Iāve been trying my best to stay objective here.
i read areteās case and itās okay but i can see vulgard doing 90% of the things there as a villager
i donāt think the case looked particularly bad faith though
ive read the case but in all honesty im too tired to process it in the 10 minutes I have left to be able to post
shruggggg
98% confidence i something that I feel warrants resolving but realisticlaly I donāt have time to actually truly break down areteās points and digest them so I still think we should kill derps.
If itās not derps im gonna be a bit crushed cuz rhis is my wagon and if ive lead another on a villager im going to have played substantially horrible this game
but itā¦ probably is just derps.
Iād prefer a derps kill still
no matter what arete and vul do heās still wolfy
Iām leaving for the last 4 hours, have fun.
Alright i really want to talk to Arete when they wake up hopefuly with some time left in EoD
I do think this is a good wolf case i feel like personally on Vulgard tbh, but there are a couple things i want to have input on in regards to some finer details.
