EoD wasn’t moved, it ends at 11 AM CST
Marshal, your telling me that you have time to sleep for 5-7 hours, and go on a 6 hour trip
in any case we have three noelim votes which is all that we need to stop scum from last minute voting someone else so I don’t really think there’s any reason to hammer
shrug
(ftr I’m working on a couple posts at the moment and would prefer if no one hammer while I do that)
alright
so
this post is just going to be … a summary of most of the thoughts I can remember having about particular players that I think are important for their alignment
disclaimer that it’s going to be way hedgier than my posts normally are, for obvious reasons, and also because I’m not trying to project confidence which I normally do as villa
order is basically random
Hippo
there have been several places where I felt his posts lacked TMI, e.g. P#1199 which feels like it’s TMIing Marl V (which obviously doesn’t make sense from a TMI perspective since Marl was a wolf) and P#1221 which feels like he legitimately believes that CRich could flip scum. Since I got in the game I’ve felt like I mindmelded with his posts on several occasions, which is a good look. after fully re-reading his EoD3 (I think 3?) it makes way more sense from a village PoV than I thought at first and now I think it’s villagery. the biggest thing that’s scaring me is the post where he talks about snapvoting me tomorrow. one thing that I’ve seen ~fairly commonly in LyLo scenarios with one wolfy votable partner and one less wolfy less votable partner is that the less votable partner votes a PoE villager before people can vote their wolfy partner and takes advantage of that to win. also his stated reasoning doesn’t really make sense? but now that I actually type this out I’m not sure if he would signal that so overtly rather than just waiting until tomorrow.
I think if he’s villager he usually dies overnight. maybe a llttle less likely now since he openly signalled intent to vote me. I guess I maybe shouldn’t be saying ‘if he’s a villager he usually dies overnight’ because it makes the wolves more likely to leave v!him alive for paranoia? whatever.
I am also scared that if he is villager and sticks to his word about snapvoting me we will just lose but I don’t think I can really stop that.
the number of clears he’s been getting for specifically meta is a bit weird since I don’t think most people here are very familiar with his meta and he hasn’t played in months. don’t really think that’s AI for him, though? it might be AI for the people clearing him
Vulgard
Mrrrrrr.
mrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
I think … all the points I made when I first cased him, in that giant wallpost, are still correct, and mostly I still have trouble seeing how they make sense from villa!him. But at the same time, I came into today with a very clear idea of what his plan would be as Mafia, which he literally signalled yesterday, and then instead he was like ‘actually I think Arete is a villager,’ and I don’t really know why he breaks off that push in MyLo as scum? I guess it makes sense if he thought he would lose but I think that basically only makes sense with his partner being Marshal.
his posting today has been a lot better than in previous days even aside that although I’m a bit scared that he’s deliberately pocketing me now that I’m in the game. also if he’s a wolf he’s hitting the ~exact emotional notes I would expect him to as a villager. I guess if he’s a villager he’s also doing that but in that case it’s less notable.
I don’t think he’s cleared from the push on Derps since it’s in-meta for him to sometimes bus
Marshal
normally I say that the right way to read Marshal is to just ignore her posting and look at her read accuracy, because she tends towards powerwolfing as wolf unless her teammates are incredibly inactive. the issue I’m having this game is that her reads have largely been pretty bad but there are still some things pulling me towards her being a villager but also I know that every time I make a read like that I’ve been burned by it. I’m also confused in particular by her read on Derps being spew cleared from Marl because that’s really not the impression I got from reading Marl’s posts. I think the doctor thing with Arctic is a good look, I’ve tried to think of obvious ways for that to be faked and I’m mostly drawing a blank. I also kind of liked how when she was talking about that she brought up her PR read on Appel/Night. on the other hand some of her posts today have scared me because she reallyreallyreally wants to make sure I don’t get cleared and I’m pretty sure I’m the exact misyeet wolves need to win.
I don’t really buy the argument that Derps would have tried harder as W/W, I think that ignores the wide number of other possible reasons for Derps lowposting starting with ‘he was busy IRL and couldn’t do it.’ shrugrete.
also I hate the hammer. a lot. I’m trying not to go out of my way to make her feel bad about it but … if she is a villager and we lose the hammer will probably have been a major contributing factor? and there’s not really a way to not make her feel bad about that.
Atlas
feels like a pretty archetypical newbie SD player. there have been a couple moments where I wasn’t totally sure where he got some piece of information but I know he has experience with other SD games so maybe that’s where? I’m not actually sure whether Untrusted has any sort of ‘noeleim at x player count’ meta, probably not since it has night exes but I could be wrong. he felt villagery when I initially read his slot, he has been dropping off since due to relatively less content. meh. if I’m being honest with myself part of why I’m dropping him down is that he fits with a lot of people as partners but I’m not really sure how much I should actually be taking at a point.
Eli
I felt his early posting was squarely in his village meta and not his wolf meta. his later posting has admittedly fallen off a cliff, as literally everyone has pointed out. it would be cool if he would keep having thoughts so that he could potentially, say, have some thoughts that are obviously unfakeable if village. I … don’t really have anything else to say about him. huh.
I feel like mostly what I came out with are reasons to think people are villagers. weh.
I had a couple other things I wanted to do (partner compatibility analysis with Derps + ‘which living players can’t be W/W’) but I almost fell asleep multiple times writing that post in my chair so I think I’m going to sleep and write it overnight
therefore wolves should kill me if they think that Derps interactions or living player preflip compatibility analysis might be dangerous to them
given the above I probably won’t be around for EoD
but that’s okay because EoD doesn’t matter
I feel like figuring out which two players can’t be partners is strongly correlated to your opinion on whether the wolves bussed or not. I’ve brought up arguments earlier about how Eli was probably a villager, because if he were a wolf, then Marl bussed his entire team. But people have said Marl would bus his entire team, and this actually makes Eli a wolf. So, I feel like this is an exercise in futility.
About Marshal, I’m listening to everything you say about her, but I have a personal plan as to how to deal with her.
I’m doing three peaks tomorrow through Wednesday and I’m never getting voted so if mafia can do me a solid and kill me I’d respect that
I think I already know who I’m voting tomorrow and I hope I’m going to be right about this. I honestly wouldn’t mind if we hammered unless someone has anything more to say.
That said, I don’t actually want anyone to snap hammer unless everyone has given their consent.
If I die tonight let it be known that I think we shld tell arete to vote their top scumread at start of day.
I think blitzer was right on it being exactly eli/arete but atlas also has wolf equity.
