Ominous
I donāt really want to keep people waiting but I want to leave as much as I can
Iām going to be on mobile in car until about 3 or 4 hours before EoD
Iām going to see if I can set up a hotspot in the car and finish my legacy then, if not youāre getting the solve without quotes and without any other stuff
whew
host cant keep a sleep schedule, thank you guys for shutting up
NOBODY HAS BEEN ELIMINATED IN THE DAY. NIGHT BEGINS, AND WILL END AT 2021-06-14T16:00:00Z.
Hippoyeetus has died
They wereā¦
Yang Xiao Long
Vanilla Town
The blonde brawler of Team RWBY. Sure, she might be under the leadership of her little sister, but donāt that fool you - sheās got quite the nasty punch. And, if you manage to mess with her hairā¦ well, letās just say that youāll regret it.
Your only abilities are your voice and your vote. Use them wisely.
Defeat all members of the informed minority.
With five alive, majority is three. Additionally, votes are locked, as it is LyLo.
1 Like
okay so overnight I had talked myself into thinking Hippo was a wolf
feel free to bully me
Derps partner compatibility analysis
Derps talking about Vul
I think overall these interactions are a mildly good look for Vul, there are a few posts (P#1422, P#3554, P#6121) where he directly appeals to Vul in a way that doesnāt really feel W/W. Nothing super major but itās not like Derpsās Iso has anything super major anyway 
okay I realized after quoting these that I canāt actually reasonably just quote every post Vul made about Derps because Vul mentioned him a Lot. in hindsight this should have been obvious before I opened 60+ tabs of Vulposts. Iām going to do my best to summarize the important parts, I guess?
Vul spends a While in early game harddefending Derps for meta reasons, I donāt totally get the reasoning here although Iām cautious about the level zero āyou defended a wolf so you are wolfā read. I kind of think he believed the Derps neighborizer claim, which is a good look if true.
He first started to reverse the read around SoD4 citing Derpsās EoD3 being bad, I basically find this a believable progression (I had the same reaction to Derpsās EoD3). His push on Derps is ā¦ I donāt know how much credit to give because Derps was pretty much dead in the water at that point, but thereās nothing that looks obviously TMIish? on the other hand the extent to which he tried to tie other people to Derps (mostly Blizer and Marshal) even before Derps had flipped is pretty yikes.
I think I want to talk to Vul about some of this. Also about several other things.
Derps talking about Marshal
so my first thought when I read this was that it looked pretty bad for Marshal because of e.g. how Derps was talking about how Marshal was Definitely A Wolf but not making any effort to actually push her, which is an extremely classic level 1 W/W interaction. however after I thought about it more Iām not sure that actually applies, normally when Derps is a wolf heās totally willing to randomly CFD partners at EoD (e.g. D1 with me in JoJoās), also I had forgotten how hard he was pushing on Marshal D4 (though he might have been in antispew by that point). overall Iām pretty conflicted on these interactions, I think I think theyāre a worse look for Marshal because thereās no point where Derps makes any attempt to hedge against Marshal being V/avoid looking bad if Marshal is a villager but Iām not super confident in that.
like with Vul Marshal has a whole lot of posts on Derps and Iām not going to try and quote them all, instead Iām just going to talk about them
I think her specifically advocating for Derps to be vigged over Eli (even if she pushed PKR over both of them) is probably a good look, I think a bus would more be more likely to look like trying to get Derps voted out than shot since that tends to get more cred. Iām pretty confused how she supposedly saw Marl spew as a good look for Derps and think itās kind of a bad look, like, Marshal is pretty decent at spew analysis normally and yet missed all the W/W looking interactions to focus on some pretty minor points. neighborizer thing is whatever, actually on second thought I take that back since she explicitly said she didnāt believe it and knew Night was neighborizer. which I guess still makes it āwhatever.ā anyways. she started going after Derps again around D3 (?) which is fine, maybe good even, Derps wasnāt really under as much pressure at that point. ok I just got to 4744 and I am very ??? about how Marshal as a villager would still be shielding Derps on a spew basis?? (also, her refusing to acknowledge that Marl going out of his way to tie my slot to Derps is village-AI for me but spending several days shielding Derps for āāāspewā"" that isnāt even a good look is kind of ridiculous). P#4779 is pretty villagery, it feels like the sort of thing I think when Iām talking myself slowly into a read as town. P#5048 where she says sheās cool with chopping Blizer because he has high partner equity with Derps WHO HASNāT FLIPPED YET is extremely yikes. then from there itās pretty much straight āderps wolf vote derps,ā which is fine but not out of her wolfrange given that Derps was super inactive and prime bussing territory.
also fwiw I find Marshalās āDerps would be trying harder as Mafia if we were partnersā thing exactly zero persuasive, like, in my experience with Derps when he lowefforts as Mafia itās usually because of being busy IRL rather than generic hatred for the alignment and he would obviously be equally busy regardless of who his partners are.
when I first saw this I thought it might be a good look because wolves know that never interacting with other wolves is suspicious and will usually try to force at least a couple interactions but then I checked Eli and Hippo and he never talked about them either. Having read through the Vul/Marshal argument I basically buy that itās not W/W albeit for an extremely bad reason which means that Derps having literally no interactions with three slots in the game is probably NAI for those slots.
Atlas talking about Derps
none of these posts make me feel any sort of way
no interactions
Hippo talking about Derps
I actually hate Hippoās progression on Derps, which kind of sucks because I think we probably just lose if Hippo is a wolf but also his progression is really bad, bad enough that I canāt just let it slide with villagery posting. Like, he spent most of the game trying to shield Derps for thin reasons most of which are incomprehensible to me (e.g. P#5056, where he says he Isoād Derps and liked it, which is just bizarre since Derpsās Iso was basically completely empty), there are a few moments of shade in there but nothing substantial. Then when Derps started to actually get some heat he randomly pivoted to being totally cool with voting him out (P#6024) with literally no progression. I pulled the vote counts closest to his last townread and first moment of actually being willing to elim him and it lines up pretty closely with when Derps started being a viable wagon target which is extremely typical of a wolf who realized his partner was under pressure and didnāt want to look associated.
no interactions (technically I got three results but none of them are about Eli in any meaningful way, two are literally just pings at aelin)
Eli talking about Derps
none of these really move me strongly, the bit where heās like āuse something real as justificationā to Vul is maybe a slightly good look because heās discrediting a townread on Derps in a way that gets him exactly zero credit but other than that none of the interactions are super meaningful and thatās a pretty minor point
tl;dr
Vul looks ?better?
Marshal looks worse
Atlas and Eli barely interacted with him
Hippo looks worse
(this is copypasted from my overnight notes, I didnāt change anything which is why itās talking about Hippo as, you know, not a flipped villager)
you know i wouldnāt have consented to a nightskip if i knew day was going to be shorter
I didnāt have time to finish my partner compatibility analysis for living players
Iām going to try and get that done by midday before voting starts
ok but i had a tinfoil on him
so like
wolves could have pushed that tinfoil
and killed the universally-lock V marshal