and outside of that I find them ~plausible from Marshal’s treatment of Derps for more or less the reasons we already discussed (I’m also frankly baffled by Marshal’s initial attempt to clear him based on Marl spew)
I’m with Hippo in that “players actually bothering to play the game” is a good thing. The bad thing is the amount of AtE from pushed players.
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goodnight Vul
please inform anyone making dumb preflips while I’m asleep that they lost their preflips license
i think it could be theatre because you were exaggerating the extent to which the threadstate was against you and it looked performative
Good night, Arete.
Marshal’s treatment of me is odd, because she calls my push on her bad faith, yet never calls me a wolf. As soon as I rescind the push, she loses interest in evaluating my alignment. Now that the thread is against me, she even calls me town.
It feels like pocketing rather than genuine evaluation.
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My take on Arctic is “villagery macro play, some villagery micro posts. He is playing leagues ahead of his last wolfgame if he is a wolf. In most worlds, he would be a villager and that would be that, but we’ve been killing lots of townies. It makes me think I should re-evaluate Arctic, and hence I am considering worlds with w!him.”
The main problem with that world is that a world with w!Arctic is a world where he’s been the main powerwolf. I struggle to visualize that after the wolfgame I played with him. I may have written a case on him when I was his partner, but he had a clear hesitation to make pushes. He spent lots of posts not pushing people and not determining alignments. This stood in contrast to the towngame he had played prior.
If he has turned into King Powerwolf in the span of one game, then hats off to him. That would be the most extreme development I have ever seen in mafia.
I’ve already gone into detail about why Hippo is town, I don’t need to go over that again.
My Atlas townread weakens every moment they show no interest in the game. It also applies to Eli to some extent. By meta / experience level they should be villagers, but I am getting suspicious. There isn’t much to read them on. Neither has made takes that show a clear lack of TMI, neither has reads I find compelling. They’ve done things outside of pure fluff, which is a step above floating, but it’s difficult to sort them. Their WiM not existing in our current situation is also problematic.
Marshal may be the top poster, but I find her handling of me very odd on a macro level, as I’ve described.
Arete’s villageriness is growing in my book, to the point I am not willing to kill them today. I am not locking them town and do not treat my read on them as such.
Derps has shown no investment in the game. His only push comprises calling Marshal a wolf a couple of times, but he does not do much to push her. We are close to MyLo and he has still done nothing to help us win the game. The closest thing to him contributing is him popping in at EoD3, with a couple of posts and a vote on lol. Which is… suffice to say, not a great look. It might not be alignment indicative if you look at it from an objective standpoint, but it doesn’t help.
Blizer has been the highest-WiM player in the cursed BlueLance slot. The random VT claim from BlueLance is something towny in a vacuum, but not clearing. Ami pushing one player at random read as wolfy to me and it still does now. Many things Blizer says do not make sense; he takes his pre-established POV and then acts in a way opposing it.
Blizer calls Eli a wolf, but doesn’t want to vote Eli, because Marshal is protecting Eli. But he also wolfreads Marshal, so I don’t understand why this is stopping him. Blizer also ends up omitting Eli from his final legacy at EoD3, no reason given. He claims in his AtE post that town is on the wrong track and will misyeet him, but his PoE is two players already in the PoE. (Marshal is debatable, but it’s not like town trusted Marshal.) The third would be Eli, a person outside of PoE, but Blizer omits him from his final legacy.
To Blizer’s credit, he does enter day 4 with different considerations. That said, his point of view day 3 still looks disjointed. There’s also the point I brought up earlier about him entering the thread promising a wolf pelt. Then he doesn’t deliver; he doesn’t even vote anyone until he’s a wagon forced to vote someone to survive. His read flip on lol at EoD looks less like Blizer being convinced lol’s a wolf and more like self-pres.
A possible explanation:
Blizer was only going to present this “I will give you a pelt” attitude until people would townread his slot. As soon as people would townread him for investment and entering the thread with ‘fire,’ he’d drop the shtick. You could argue “Vul, why are you building a narrative?” to which I say “it’s natural to do this as a wolf.” You’re replacing into a doomed slot. The best way to show you are a ‘villager’ is to post reads and look like you will try to solve the game. Which is what Blizer did, to his credit.
Why is Blizer not a villager? His POV doesn’t make sense to me on many occasions, and I’ve tried to understand it.
The biggest problem is him entering the thread with a “I will find wolves” mindset, yet not pushing any. I struggle to believe his claims that town is being misled and will lose the game when he’s not pushing wolves.
He claims he is trying to break the status quo because town needs to do it, but his only vote is what looks like self-pres.
He names Eli/Marshal/lol as his team, but does not push Eli because Marshal is shielding him. That part is something I also don’t understand whatsoever. Blizer explained it today by claiming he’d been doubting himself, but that’s inconsistent. His initial attitude was a confident one. He kept talking about bringing wolf pelts to the town. He sounded sure of himself when he ranted about town ‘needing luck to win this game because town is wrong.’
It’s all strange.
Could Blizer be a villager who’s confident and not confident at the same time? …I suppose? But it’s strange. He doesn’t have anything to lose if he’s a PoE villager who needs to break the status quo. There should be nothing stopping him from voting his wolfreads. Confidence be damned, town is headed into a loss and he thinks the PoE is wrong. Why does he not even vote his wolfreads if he has that mindset? Why does he resort to AtE when getting pushed despite his contributions? Why is he banking on AtE to save himself instead of killing a wolf, and why does his only vote look like pure self-pres?
If you can answer all these questions assuming a v!Blizer perspective, I’ll be able to see him being town. At present, I don’t see it.
Reading his D3 ISO, I’m supposed to believe he thinks the following three things at the same time.
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The town’s PoE is wrong and we are headed into a loss.
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Eli/Marshal/lol are mafia.
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I will bring you a wolf pelt today.
Meanwhile, his actual actions:
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Not voting anyone until EoD, when he self-presses onto lol.
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Not pushing Eli because Marshal is defending him - the exact explanation he provides. A wolfread of his defending another wolfread of his justifies him not voting there, in his eyes.
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AtE when he gets wagoned again because people aren’t impressed enough.
It doesn’t make sense to me.
There is nothing in his D3 ISO that tells me he wasn’t posturing to save his slot rather than trying to save the village.
Nah I’m implying PKR cld be town as not much self preservation and if he is mafia lol probably is too cuz pkr pushing me over lol was stupid if they wanted to live.
I agree I probably shld have elaborated lol.
Read the post above it it follows on from same thought about pkrs lack of self pres.
Do you guys want more time for discussion today or do you want more time
asking if you want my flip now or in 24 hours basically.
Blizer, what scumreads do you have at the moment? Which one are you the most confident in?
I think Marshal/You/Arete personally
with like maybe Derps or Eli, but super low
Marshal is my biggest one, as i stated earlier at SoD, her EoD to me was pretty fucking wolfy in terms of her vote timing on my wagon when Hippo and Arctic jumped onto lol’s wagon, i think her behaviour around derps is an interaction that can i personally see as T/W between the two slots, and i think the CFD to PKR was pretty wolfy imo.
And it wasnt like she was hard defending lol’s slot either btw, she just really wanted My slot or PKRs dead really, which is why I found her behaviour wolfy, because it felt very indirect of a defense towards the slot, who was in the PoE, and was wolf read significantly at the time.
Are you willing to stake the game on Marshal being a wolf? As in: we flip Marshal today and if Marshal’s a villager you get yeeted tomorrow?
Yes, I say this knowing tomorrow is MYLO if we misyeet today.
Also i did state, i felt like her big wallpost on you was bad, because i dont believe you could have reached she could reached an inconclusive read on your slot, after she was calling your earlier read/push as bad faith, without any like significant town/wolf lean attached towards the read tbh