I mean last time I did it the game was a scum sweep by D3 and wound up going ~2-3 days shorter than the host had expected it to because we won so overwhelmingly
but ok
us being on a scumteam together wasā¦ interesting.
it worked but only because i intensely argued his lockscum of me because i actually didnāt want him to lockscum me.
u 2
i just dont want to if im honest
that requires too much brainpower which i dont have rn
Risk-reward. One scum outted, you TR your scum team.
The antithesis: You SR your buds, eventually theyāre all gone or youāre gone and they catch on.
Well if itās too much brainpower, then how could you ever justify PKR being what you think they are?
https://www.chiefdelphi.com/t/game-thread-fm2-deadnight/368768/
my D1 readslist from my last scum game, if people actually want meta
Town
Rem: Literally everything sheās done has been townie, I basically donāt see this slot flipping scum ever. Iām pretty much putting her in a āreevaluate if weāre somehow both alive in LyLoā box.
DeadBananas: Given how new he is (IIRC this is his second game), his level of solviness and thought processes almost always come from town. In my experience newbie scum typically try to lurk/go under the radar or give hedgy reads without being willing to commit to them, and that doesnāt match his play this match at all, which indicates a genuine interest in solviness. I also feel like Iāve mindmelded with this slot a lot this game.
Ari: Based on playing with him in FM1 heās basically in his town meta. Also, I donāt think this level of aggressiveness and confidence (e.g. starting the ITAs) would come from newbie scum basically ever.
Squirrel: This is another slot where I keep mindmelding with it. There was like one post that pinged me early on but other than that the analysis feels natural, and there are several posts that seemed townie such as when they questioned Quinās townread on them.
GKB: His thought process and progression has felt very natural this game so far, at this point the biggest thing giving me pause is him repeatedly saying heās going to take a shot without actually doing it and the random discussion of PRs but other than that heās been pretty townie.
Bepwei: I re-read his Iso and although he hasnāt posted much, basically all of his posts have felt slightly townie, so this is a townlean for now.
Null
Eric, Kaylee, Kaitlyn, Oro, Quack, James. One of Kayleeās posts about not wanting to be linked to people kind of pinged me but other than that I havenāt really seen much AI from these slots.
Scum
Gellnick: He had some early posts in his Iso that looked like they were designed to look productive without actively being productive. I also agree with what Rem said about how him being willing to vote but not shoot is scummy.
Clonedcheese: If Quin is a villager, their explanation for their shot on Quin looks kind of terrible (in that they were trying to distance from the shot in the case of Quin flipping villager, which would make sense from the mindset of a wolf who doesnāt want to look bad if the shot hits, but not from the mindset of a villager who actually believes in their shot). However, I donāt think this slot is ever W/W with Quin, so Quin flipping W would basically clear him, and I remember liking some of their early posting (though I donāt remember why).
Spork: All my reasons for scumreading this slot earlier still apply. Also, the fact that it spent a while as top wagon before the votes dispersed without the slot itself having done anything is commonly indicative of scum.
Quin: The readslist he posted earlier felt very artificial and his explanations donāt really make sense. There were also several points where I felt like he was dodging my or other peopleās questions (such as when he was asked about why Squirrel was so high on his readlist and he interpreted it as a question about him using nicknames/not nicknames, or when I asked about why he thought some of the different things lowposters had done were AI and rather than saying why he thought that he just repeated that they were). This sort of evasiveness is very likely wolf-motivated as wolves are often worried about giving the ārightā answers to questions and are more likely to avoid giving a direct answer.
Weāve had like 15 hours of discussion total
Trying to end the day this earlier is anti-town
Yes, weāre on a timer, but thereās no world in which the game could plausibly go for 13 days (which is what you get if you divide 200 by 15 and round down)
Arete, do you want to continue milking the clock or let people gather mechanical info
Well first of all D1 of an FoL is 24 hours not 48
But second of all weāre still getting useful social reads, āletās just hammer someone 15 hours inā is a stupid position to take unless thereās literally an outed wolf
Like, assuming 1 KPN (which is basically the minimum assuming, like, thereās a factional kill, and assumes that scum canāt gain additional KP/town doesnāt have KP at all), then right now we have 16 players alive
assume whatever combinations of correct lynches and incorrect lynches means the game doesnāt end early
16 players alive
1 lynch/1 kill
14 players alive on D2
1 lynch/1 kill
12 players alive on D3
1 lynch/1 kill
10 players alive on D4
1 lynch/1 kill
8 players alive on D5
1 lynch/1 kill
6 players alive on D6
1 lynch/1 kill
4 players alive on D7
no lynch to force a LyLo scenario (I donāt actually know if that would be a good idea because scum could have extra KP, but weāre assuming bare-minimum plausible KP)
1 kill
3 players alive on D8
the absolute maximum this game could plausibly last is 8 days
200/8 is 25
this means the absolute soonest itās remotely reasonable to be thinking about ending the day is 25 hours in
we are 15 hours in
and thatās not accounting for the fact that scum could have additional KP/town could have, like, a vig or something, and also not accounting for the fact that right now we have everyone alive
It also doesnāt account for the town having protectives, making no kills possible