[SFM] Evolution Mafia [Mafia wins]

[Solic]

Nope.

[Icibalus]

just use the fucking chucklevoodoos on me and make shitty dolls appear in my dreams already

[Solic]

@Arete

readlist TAKE TWO NOW WITH NOT HITTING REPLY TOO EARLY

anyways I know this is really long so if you don’t want to read 1,000 words of soundbites on everyone’s alignment I think the actually interesting part is at the bottom, below the linebreak.

Town
Vul - my perfect soulread on Vul says he’s town, also a bunch of his posts have given me townie pings. I have literally never been wrong on Vul’s alignment outside of turbos, including the time when another townie claimed an untailorable redcheck on him. Everyone should sheep my Vul reads because I’m objectively better at reading him than anyone else on the site.

Ici - Ici had a really good EoD1 and his reads don’t feel fake the way they do when he’s scum (looking mainly at Marson and Danganronpa here). Thinking this slot is very likely to be town.

Hippo - His opener was pretty good, I basically stand by what I said earlier about wolves not liking to annoy people the way his early memeing about a redcheck on Ici would, and his reads since then have felt unperformative. I also buy the derpclear with not knowing that Luxy was dead, someone asked me earlier if I thought that was the sort of thing he would fake as scum and I thought about it and I can’t remember ever reading him doing anything like that. I feel good about this slot.

eevee - I like how he’s been taking charge of coordinating the town with e.g. making sure that we can agree on who the Evo points go to, and things like that, that’s felt generally town-motivated. Townlean.

Italy - Thinking the duel on Marshal is a good look for him regardless of Marshal’s flip. Even if Marshal is town, it doesn’t make sense for scum to use killpower on someone that’s just going to get mislynched anyway.

Solic - I’ve generally felt like his progression on his reads has been good, and he’s felt engaged with the thread in a way that he wasn’t the last time I saw him wolfing (Looming Threat), which is a good look. Townlean.

Jake - Hot take, but Jake is probably town. The last few times I’ve played with scum!Jake (so, ToS FM, Candlelight, and the Cop 13er) he literally managed to get himself muted or suspended because of how toxic he was just because people were pressuring him. Here, he’s responded to pressure by actually playing the game and trying to solve. His interactions with Vulgard today were kind of ??? but I don’t actually think they’re wolfy, like, if we start from the perspective that Vul is town and Jake wants him to be the town leader because of the whole ‘Vul has bad reads’ meme but like, Jake’s one of the people Vul’s wolfreading IIRC, in W!Jake worlds Vul’s reads aren’t all that bad so this argument doesn’t hold.

Null/I’m confused
Emilia - I’m going to be honest I feel like people are clearing this slot based on meta when that meta doesn’t really apply anymore, Emilia definitely has some games where she struggles to exist as scum ( looks at FoL 26 ) but it’s not a consistent tell the way it used to be. With 231 posts I should really have a stronger read on her but at this point the strongest thing I can say is ‘not cleared but also not actively scummy.’

Derps - I hate trying to read Derps, I felt like we were mindmelding a lot yesterday which is a decent look for him but I’m honestly not seeing anything super AI here. If it gets into the lategame you can basically read him on the quality of his reads, he compulsively busses his teammates for no reason so the worse his reads have been come lategame the more likely it is he’s a villager.

kat - This is another slot I’m conflicted on, my gut is telling me he’s town but my brain is telling me that the whole ‘claiming Mafia’ schtick is literally what he did the last time he was Mafia and I miscleared him there.

N.1/Wazza - I wasn’t sure about lynching this slot yesterday because lurker lynches are super easy to push and get us nothing but when he still wasn’t doing anything today the slot dropped a lot given N’s tendency to be a useless slanker as scum (hence my vote). However, Wazza’s early posting was pretty decent and he didn’t have any issues with any of the reactiontests on his slot (like, I wouldn’t expect scum!Wazza to be like ‘yeah I’m totally a 1-shot PGO’ but I’d expect him to take some time to figure out if that was what his previous slot was claiming, here he was just like ‘no I’m not’) which is enough to bump this slot back up to null.

Scum
Possessed - This slot’s early D1 kind of sucked but I want to believe that he wouldn’t ATE like that as scum His D2 has been a lot better – I specifically liked his vote analysis even if I disagree with some of it. …Although now that I’m actually looking at his Iso again he has almost no posts today, which isn’t a great look; it feels like he kind of vanished once he stopped being under pressure, which isn’t a great look.

PoisonedSquid - This slot has been getting a townpass for reasons that looking at her Iso are frankly mystifying. Like, I skimmed her Iso and 90 percent of it is just talking about the evolution point, which is apparently super important to her role for unspecified reasons. I’m glad I went to the trouble of actually making a readlist because until now I’d basically been listening to the consensus here but the consensus makes no sense . Half her reads are just light shading that she barely follows up on!! why are people townreading her!!

Marshal
Marshal - This slot was incredibly wolfy yesterday and I went into today kind of bitter that we didn’t manage to kill it yesterday like I was trying to after he spent basically the entire day openwolving. However, him intentionally losing the duel points to him being town – in worlds where him and Italy is TvS, I think W!Marshal would try to take Italy down with him even if it guaranteed his lynch, and in worlds where it would be SvS it would make more sense for him to at least pretend to try to win. which makes me sad because I really wanted to be right

So here’s the problem I’m having. The vast majority of my null-to-scumreads are basically consensus PoE. With a couple of exceptions most of my townreads townread each other. The problem is, the thread is not remotely acting like a world where the Mafia are mostly caught, like, no one is really fighting the consensus at all. Basically, either the Mafia has completely given up, or my reads are just wildly incorrect.

also I only have two proper scumreads but that’s a separate issue

When I actually look at my reads I feel like there’s a lot of generally strong players that I’m clearing for ‘is a basically competent player who is actually playing the game’ which is a really bad habit of mine. I think the interpretation of the gamestate that makes the most sense is the one where I’m wrong about at least one of them, maybe more.

I – feel like I should be ending this with ‘and here are the specific people I’ve miscleared, and why it’s them and not anyone else,’ like, ‘I’ve miscleared someone’ isn’t a super useful or productive thing to say, but also it’s 3:05 AM and I’m exhausted so I think I’m not going to do that tonight.

@Arete

Were these in order?

[eevee]

@Italy

eevee had to speak in poem (and isn’t a native english speaker)

In one-word poem.
Poem using one word, aka weird word connection to create other words.

[eevee]

Obligatory @Hippolytus

[Arete]

@Solic

@Arete

readlist TAKE TWO NOW WITH NOT HITTING REPLY TOO EARLY

anyways I know this is really long so if you don’t want to read 1,000 words of soundbites on everyone’s alignment I think the actually interesting part is at the bottom, below the linebreak.

Town
Vul - my perfect soulread on Vul says he’s town, also a bunch of his posts have given me townie pings. I have literally never been wrong on Vul’s alignment outside of turbos, including the time when another townie claimed an untailorable redcheck on him. Everyone should sheep my Vul reads because I’m objectively better at reading him than anyone else on the site.

Ici - Ici had a really good EoD1 and his reads don’t feel fake the way they do when he’s scum (looking mainly at Marson and Danganronpa here). Thinking this slot is very likely to be town.

Hippo - His opener was pretty good, I basically stand by what I said earlier about wolves not liking to annoy people the way his early memeing about a redcheck on Ici would, and his reads since then have felt unperformative. I also buy the derpclear with not knowing that Luxy was dead, someone asked me earlier if I thought that was the sort of thing he would fake as scum and I thought about it and I can’t remember ever reading him doing anything like that. I feel good about this slot.

eevee - I like how he’s been taking charge of coordinating the town with e.g. making sure that we can agree on who the Evo points go to, and things like that, that’s felt generally town-motivated. Townlean.

Italy - Thinking the duel on Marshal is a good look for him regardless of Marshal’s flip. Even if Marshal is town, it doesn’t make sense for scum to use killpower on someone that’s just going to get mislynched anyway.

Solic - I’ve generally felt like his progression on his reads has been good, and he’s felt engaged with the thread in a way that he wasn’t the last time I saw him wolfing (Looming Threat), which is a good look. Townlean.

Jake - Hot take, but Jake is probably town. The last few times I’ve played with scum!Jake (so, ToS FM, Candlelight, and the Cop 13er) he literally managed to get himself muted or suspended because of how toxic he was just because people were pressuring him. Here, he’s responded to pressure by actually playing the game and trying to solve. His interactions with Vulgard today were kind of ??? but I don’t actually think they’re wolfy, like, if we start from the perspective that Vul is town and Jake wants him to be the town leader because of the whole ‘Vul has bad reads’ meme but like, Jake’s one of the people Vul’s wolfreading IIRC, in W!Jake worlds Vul’s reads aren’t all that bad so this argument doesn’t hold.

Null/I’m confused
Emilia - I’m going to be honest I feel like people are clearing this slot based on meta when that meta doesn’t really apply anymore, Emilia definitely has some games where she struggles to exist as scum ( looks at FoL 26 ) but it’s not a consistent tell the way it used to be. With 231 posts I should really have a stronger read on her but at this point the strongest thing I can say is ‘not cleared but also not actively scummy.’

Derps - I hate trying to read Derps, I felt like we were mindmelding a lot yesterday which is a decent look for him but I’m honestly not seeing anything super AI here. If it gets into the lategame you can basically read him on the quality of his reads, he compulsively busses his teammates for no reason so the worse his reads have been come lategame the more likely it is he’s a villager.

kat - This is another slot I’m conflicted on, my gut is telling me he’s town but my brain is telling me that the whole ‘claiming Mafia’ schtick is literally what he did the last time he was Mafia and I miscleared him there.

N.1/Wazza - I wasn’t sure about lynching this slot yesterday because lurker lynches are super easy to push and get us nothing but when he still wasn’t doing anything today the slot dropped a lot given N’s tendency to be a useless slanker as scum (hence my vote). However, Wazza’s early posting was pretty decent and he didn’t have any issues with any of the reactiontests on his slot (like, I wouldn’t expect scum!Wazza to be like ‘yeah I’m totally a 1-shot PGO’ but I’d expect him to take some time to figure out if that was what his previous slot was claiming, here he was just like ‘no I’m not’) which is enough to bump this slot back up to null.

Scum
Possessed - This slot’s early D1 kind of sucked but I want to believe that he wouldn’t ATE like that as scum His D2 has been a lot better – I specifically liked his vote analysis even if I disagree with some of it. …Although now that I’m actually looking at his Iso again he has almost no posts today, which isn’t a great look; it feels like he kind of vanished once he stopped being under pressure, which isn’t a great look.

PoisonedSquid - This slot has been getting a townpass for reasons that looking at her Iso are frankly mystifying. Like, I skimmed her Iso and 90 percent of it is just talking about the evolution point, which is apparently super important to her role for unspecified reasons. I’m glad I went to the trouble of actually making a readlist because until now I’d basically been listening to the consensus here but the consensus makes no sense . Half her reads are just light shading that she barely follows up on!! why are people townreading her!!

Marshal
Marshal - This slot was incredibly wolfy yesterday and I went into today kind of bitter that we didn’t manage to kill it yesterday like I was trying to after he spent basically the entire day openwolving. However, him intentionally losing the duel points to him being town – in worlds where him and Italy is TvS, I think W!Marshal would try to take Italy down with him even if it guaranteed his lynch, and in worlds where it would be SvS it would make more sense for him to at least pretend to try to win. which makes me sad because I really wanted to be right

So here’s the problem I’m having. The vast majority of my null-to-scumreads are basically consensus PoE. With a couple of exceptions most of my townreads townread each other. The problem is, the thread is not remotely acting like a world where the Mafia are mostly caught, like, no one is really fighting the consensus at all. Basically, either the Mafia has completely given up, or my reads are just wildly incorrect.

also I only have two proper scumreads but that’s a separate issue

When I actually look at my reads I feel like there’s a lot of generally strong players that I’m clearing for ‘is a basically competent player who is actually playing the game’ which is a really bad habit of mine. I think the interpretation of the gamestate that makes the most sense is the one where I’m wrong about at least one of them, maybe more.

I – feel like I should be ending this with ‘and here are the specific people I’ve miscleared, and why it’s them and not anyone else,’ like, ‘I’ve miscleared someone’ isn’t a super useful or productive thing to say, but also it’s 3:05 AM and I’m exhausted so I think I’m not going to do that tonight.

@Arete

Were these in order?

YES

EXCEPT FOR MARSHAL WHO GOT HIS OWN CATEGORY SEPARATE FROM THE OTHER THREE

TOP IS TOWNIEST BOTTOM IS SCUMMIEST

[Solic]

@Arete

LIKE IF ONE PATH LETS YOU KILL 3 PEOPLE WITH NO GUILT

AND ONE LETS YOU KILL 2 PEOPLE WITH GUILT

THEN THE FIRST OPTION IS BASICALLY ALWAYS BETTER UNLESS YOU ARE VERY DEEP IN THE POE

Uuhh there is also the fact that you can use a day kill sooner and it influences lynch. And the fact that most disruptions like target getting healed or getting blocked are at night.

[Solic]

And how is your ranking now?

[katze]

AlRiGhT, sO hErE'S tHe TrUtH bOmB

I never had a posting restriction. This was all a test because I had deduced that only people without an evolution point would get a PR, so me (someone who was modconfirmed to have at least ONE point) having one was to bait out a scum trying to fake one.

@katze

i fUcKiNg dIe lMaOoO

This post was me joking, but it was truly because I had no idea what the actual stakes were. I figured it wasn’t death so I pretended it was. Mostly so I could come back to it later as “evidence” this was all a RT.

@katze

ThIs Is FuN wHaT dO yOu MeAn

AnD iM pReTtY sUrE iVe AlReAdY sCiEnCeD wHy We GoT pOsT rEsTrIcTiOnS

@katze

It DoEs NoT hAvE tO dO wItH eVo PoInTs WhY wOuLd I hAvE a ReStRiCtIoN iN tHaT cAsE

iF yOu FiGuRe It OuT dOn’t SaY aNyThInG

i HaVe ScIeNcE

@katze

ItAlY iVe AlReAdY fIgUrEd It OuT, yOu DoN’T nEeD tO tHiNk AbOuT iT

iN fAcT, pLeAsE dOn’t

As you can see, I was trying to make sure that anyone who had come to the same conclusion as I had kept their mouth shut for a reason. looks at Italy

So in comes eevee, with their proclaimed post restriction. It’s an odd one. The arguably most restrictive one of them all, maybe second to Derps. And the one that feels most out of place. Every other PR seems to be kind of similar to someone elses, except maybe Arete since mine was fake.

The thing that’s kind of bugging me is that I tried to signal to eevee to fake a post restriction, to further obfuscate the truth as to who got PRs and who didn’t. And when they came to the thread boasting one, I didn’t believe that they picked up on my signals.

This was my signalling to eevee:

@katze

UsInG mY sCiEnCe Im PrEtTy SuRe @eevee-sama HaS a PoSt ReStRiCtIoN

WhAtEvEr It Is, ThOuGh, I dOn’t KnOw FoR sUrE

And this is my confusion, because I didn’t think they picked up on my signal:

@katze

ThE tHiNg Is

If EeVeE hAs A pOsT rEsTrIcTiOn

ThEn SoMeThInG mEcHaNiCaL i ThOuGhT wAs TrUe Is AcTuAlLy FaLsE

@katze

EeVeE yOu HaVe A sInGlE cHaNcE tO rEvEaL tHiS iS a ReAcTiOnTeSt

ThAt ChAnCe Is RiGhT mEoW

@eevee-sama

I didn’t fake it?

And they maintain that they had a restriction, but chose to break it. But they also said yesterday how they wanted two points?

@eevee-sama

I doubt a single point would be helpful anyway.

@eevee-sama

You convinced me to go after points, do something.
I don’t want a single point, I wanted all or nothing.

On one hand their proposed restriction is… kind of ridiculous for a non-native speaker. Which is why I understand not playing with it. But… do I believe this ever even existed?

However, there’s one thing I said earlier I want to go back to.

This was all a test because I had deduced that only people without an evolution point would get a PR

Eevee HAD an evolution point. From the giraffe drawing. So this leaves two options.

Option A: Eevee was lying about the test, and chose not to reveal it was a RT. Why would eevee do this, what is their motivation?

Option B: My deduction was wrong, and only players who hadn’t gotten a point from the first evolution event got a PR. This is… possible? The three people who got points from the giraffe were eevee (0 points prior) me (1 point prior) and Marshal (1 point prior and also dead) which means that eevee would be the only exception… I don’t entirely buy it.

As to eevees supposed investigation result. Their votes prior to giving up on their “post restriction” do fall under the three people here, but nobody is claiming to give eevee this find.

@eevee-sama

/vote Hippo
/vote Icibalus

@eevee-sama

Someone came to me last night and told that there is scum between Ici, Hippo and Italy.

Anyway. Using my mechanical deductions I’ve narrowed down the second winner of the popularity evolution point to be exactly Emilia or Solic. Using a bit of logic I can assume that Emilia won the point, and if I’m wrong, and Solic won, I’d be quite confused and assume there were some wolves responsible.

@PoisonedSquid

Then it’s safe to say that Eevee might have gotten his result from the Caroler as shown here:
https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/database/mafia-roles/role/?mafiarole=Caroler
Squid does not want the Caroler to claim if there is one, but this can be proof that Eevee’s results might be legit.

I do recall somewhere that somebody said that Emilia had softed invest, and if they have two points then the Caroler claim is plausible, but why would they pick eevee and not Italy who was confirmed to not visit at night? This doesn’t make sense. There is definitely info missing. I don’t get why a Caroler!Emilia would pick eevee.

I hAvEn’t DrAwN mAnY cOnClUsIoNs FrOm My ObSeRvAtIoNs YeT, aNd I hAvE tO gO fOr A bIt BeCaUsE iM hAvInG a NuRsE cHeCk OuT mY kNeE, bUt I tHoUgHt It WaS bEsT tO lAy ThIs AlL oUt ThErE

[katze]

PlEaSe ReAd As MuCh Of ThE aBoVe PoSt As YoU cAn, I bElIeVe It Is ImPoRtAnT

iLl Be BaCk In MaYbE 20 mInUtEs

[Solic]

@Arete

ALSO N’S FLIP EXPLAINS THE N1 NIGHTKILL

NO PUN INTENDED

N WAS DEEP IN LUXY’S POE AND N WAS CLEARLY BOTHERED BY LUXY’S PUSH ON HIM

I don’t think N has a strong voice in a scumteam’s mechanical choices. They would definitely be one of the weaker slots considering their post count here as well.

[PoisonedSquid]

@Solic

why are people townreading her!!

Squid has been wondering the same thing this entire time

[Possessed]

/Unvote

[Solic]

They hardpushed our only flipped scum maybe, Squid?

[Solic]

I feel better about Arete at the moment. This is pending their current reads however.

I feel like the VCA is very damning for them, but when I read their posts, there isn’t too much I disagree with. meeh.

[PoisonedSquid]

Uhh…. this is referring to why people have townread Squid despite her begging for an evo point several times and not being memorable for anything else

[Solic]

Oh I misremembered something completely there my bad.

[eevee]

@katze

This doesn’t add up other way around either.
People without points don’t always have post restictions either.

Like… Ici.

[Emilia]

unless they do

[eevee]

@eevee-sama

/vote Hippo
/vote Icibalus

Oh but thanks for actually quoting that one.
Here you have me either trying to signal that POE should be Hippo / Ici.

I forgot I did it.