And for the last fucking time, CENTURIES IS POE
this is the only thing that I might agree with as “clearing”
but he’s also been hardpushing the “mode shooters town” angle which is a little 
and I don’t see every mode shooter being town
I quick ISO’d Leafia and 2 things came up:
They had 0 progression on Mode. They hard townread mode d1, then midday 1 voted him for pressure, then eod voted Evo for bad reasons. Today they shot cloned not mode, said mode was 100% scum and anyone wanting to shoot Italy is bad, and then suggested lynching zone over seth (anth brought up Arete’s name instead of mode too). I cba to quote this stuff someone else can.
The other thing is that leafia says he hinted d1 that he had to be vistied, which is why apprentice confirmed them, but in his d1 ISO unless im blind I cannot see a single thing which suggests he was hinting something to anyone.
I’ve changed my mind on leafia tbh. Wouldn’t mind hanging them.
Vul’s VCA
ModeShifter wagon goes: Chloe, Icibalus, TBE, Vulgard, Apprentice, Marshal, Hippo, EVO.
EVO wagon goes: PKR, gorta, Alice, CRichard, Sulit, Oblight, EG->Arete, Cloned.
I’m pretty sure I can just “preflip” myself green here, because I dunked on Mode yesterday and he flipped scum. Unless you assume I hardbussed despite pushing for either of the V alternatives, then I’m just a villager.
I’m also pretty certain that it’s impossible for Alice to be anything but town given the fact she’s just been killed and cleaned. I have never seen a town vigilante who cleans their targets, and she was a terrible vig target anyway.
As long as you trust my godread on Arete, then you have to accept that Arete is just always a villager here. EG was fairly townread as well, and for good reasons.
That leaves: Chloe, Ici, TBE, Apprentice, Marshal, Hippo (Mode wagon)
And: PKR, gorta, CRich, Sulit, Oblight (EVO wagon)
Let’s start with Mode wagon.
Chloe’s vote looks really good, and she’s generally been villagery. I don’t think she genuinely self-resolved, but I wouldn’t shoot there until later in the game. Potential bussing might be going on here. The first vote is a really clever place to hide for wolves, because it looks super villagery at a glance if it lands on a wolf.
Icibalus is someone who I just consider a villager. We voted in lockstep yesterday several times, we are generally on the same page, and he sounds like his V self.
TBE could go either way, but I’m leaning town. His vote placement doesn’t really ping me one way or the other. It’s an easy place on the wagon for a wolf to hide in, but if he’s a villager, he didn’t really think about vote placement, so it doesn’t really matter.
Apprentice - there’s this self-resolving thing going on, but in general, I think this is town.
I think these posts are a very good look for apprentice.
Yeah, these posts are a great look for Apprentice. Unless they decided to hardbus at the very start of the game for whatever reason, then they are probably just town here.
Marshal - I think he’s just town. I don’t think he would be able to post so much and do so much as wolf, even though I respect his wolf game. Also, he pushed ModeShifter over two village alternatives, most notably EVO, during last day’s EoD. I don’t think wolf!Marshal feels the need to bus there when he can allow ModeShifter to survive and attract ITAs on the next day (which is what ended up happening anyway because lolrand).
Hippo’s vote puts ModeShifter almost to rand with a townie, and I also independently townread him based on tone. I think this is pretty solid town.
Now, onto the EVO wagon.
PKR has been towny. His insistence on following his declared check on Seth against logic and general “correct” cop play is something I consider more villagery than wolfy because it makes his position worse. A townread wolf PKR has no reason to out a redcheck on Seth when Seth dies anyway (I’m pretty sure we would’ve resolved Seth’s slot regardless of the check), and to insist upon it being a good play. I think his posts have also lacked agenda. I might start looking there if he survives for too long despite correctly redchecking a wolf, but in general, I think he’s towny enough for now. There’s also the trial thing on day 1 to consider. His ability uses have been suboptimal, but I don’t think they were wolfy. Villagers make mistakes. Wolves overthink their ability uses quite often.
Gorta is an interesting case.
Initial reads of the slot are here.
This post feels like… soft defending of Seth’s slot? There’s an admission of Seth being somewhat different (“This Seth is not the ToS 2 Seth”), but also a claim that Seth is typically oddly villagery. It feels like gorta is trying to indirectly defend Seth here, but the post is awkwardly phrased, so I’m not sure.
Doesn’t really commit to a stance on Seth for a while.
Scumreads Cloned.
Following up on this is a mildly good look progression-wise, but considering that cloned was a villager and gorta doesn’t really seem to have a good reason behind the vote… it looks like sheeping without admitting to the fact it’s sheeping.
Accepts my case as valid, but refuses to commit there. Willing to sheep others’ votes on Cloned, who was a villager, and not on Seth, who was a wolf.
Oh god, this looks so partnery. He’s calling Seth fake, but he still refuses to vote Seth and doesn’t even express intent to vote Seth. Not a single time does Gorta actually call Seth a wolf, he’s just asking Seth to improve. In light of Seth’s flip, this looks really bad for Gorta. It’s like a partner encouraging a partner in thread.
Again, sheeping without rhyme or reason without it being sheeping. Also, a note here; they establish that they will vote EVO before voting EVO. This is really strange to me because the vote is relatively close to EoD. It looks like gorta is self-aware about his progression and doesn’t want the vote to look like it’s random, so he introduces progression. The same thing goes for the Cheese vote earlier. It doesn’t look very natural. Gorta doesn’t really have independent reasons for his votes, he’s just sheeping others without admitting to it, and he makes it a point to announce his votes before casting them. It appears that gorta wants his progression to look good, and a villager shouldn’t be too worried about this. The fact that gorta is worried about this is rather wolfy.
Gorta was perfectly willing to vote both village alternatives to the Seth wagon, and did, but he didn’t vote Seth even though he considered Seth fake. He was perfectly aware of the scummy things that Seth was doing, and he acknowledged my case as valid, but it didn’t make him swap the vote even for a split second. There is also this brief, but super partnery interaction he had with Seth – the message about “stop being fake pls.” So basically, gorta was actively voting villagers and actively avoiding voting a wolf. I don’t think all of this is coincidental. I think gorta is just a wolf based on all this.
Moving on.
CRich is town for multiple reasons, which I’ve already explained above. I agree with Hippo that Seth’s choice of openwolf ITA target is a little strange, but it’s at least somewhat understandable and Occam’s Razor still suggests CRich is independently town. His vote on EVO doesn’t really mean much by itself. I might change my mind later if he lives for too long, we’ll see.
Sulit’s vote placement is not super noteworthy, but worth some scrutiny nonetheless.
Doesn’t like cloned early.
Tiny good look for this. Voting with your townreads makes sense.
Casting this vote while ModeShifter is the top wagon by a mile is kinda strange, especially because of this:
She voted Italy despite townreading him. That said, I think her perspective here shows a lack of TMI. Despite townreading him, sulit votes him because she wants to be able to read him better. The thought process is a little backwards; first, she calls Italy town, and then she votes him because she wants to read him…? When ModeShifter is the top wagon? It’s a little strange, but free-flowing enough that I could see this coming from a villager. I think that a wolf!sulit wouldn’t be relaxed enough to have a progression like this without worrying about her appearance.
Liking the progression on Italy, honestly. She’s constantly evaluating the slot.
This.
The fact she’s not pushing anywhere with confidence here is actually >rand town in my opinion? The thing about Seth looks bad in hindsight, but not terrible. She was a bit tunnelled on Italy instead of voting anywhere else, but it’s not overtly wolfy.
I think that in general, sulit’s behavior and voting patterns are more >rand town than >rand wolf. She can still be a wolf, but this doesn’t look terrible. So basically, she can’t be cleared, but she’s not super wolfy for this either.
Finally, Oblight. Vote placement looks similar to Sulit’s, except slightly worse because it’s a later vote.
Weird post. Nothing more to say about it, it’s just weird. Almost too awkward to say about a partner…?
It’s kinda like he’s not acknowledging what Seth is actually doing this game. He just says what Seth does as town without comparing it to what Seth is doing here.
He does eventually come around to that, though. And the people he’s listing here are/were all wolfy, so that’s a good sign.
Hahahaha. I feel like as a wolf he wouldn’t be bold enough to make this post, and a couple of other posts too.
Like this one. It feels quite bold, especially when you’re talking to v!Alice. Not sure if wolf!Light is capable of that.
Interesting statement, considering where his vote ends up being parked at EoD.
Like… this is kinda like what gorta was doing, but way better, because it acknowledges sheeping and is phrased in a much more confident way. I like this.
It’s kinda weird how he also acknowledged my case, but won’t cast a vote on Seth.
I… actually believe this. It comes across as really genuine. First going against Alice, then eventually townreading her, then sheeping her. It doesn’t feel too stilted. He’s not really being overly deliberate about this either. Light doesn’t seem too bothered about his position here (sheeping + casting a vote on a villager). You could say he might be pushing the blame onto Alice, because she’s mislynching a villager, but he actually announced that he would sheep her earlier, when she wasn’t set on EVO as the day’s lynch. The progression makes some sense and it doesn’t look like he’s following a plan. Which is rather V indicative. The sweet spot between “makes sense for a human being to have” and “is too perfect to come from a villager.” If that makes sense.
This, again, looks like he doesn’t have TMI. I know that a wolf could write a post like this easily, but it still looks really natural given the situation. It doesn’t look like “oh since EVO will flip villager that means I’m not a wolf right?” because it’s framed as a complete joke. And I think that joking like this here is V indicative, because if Light were a wolf, he would know that his partner was fighting for his life wagonomics-wise.
Okay, this guy definitely doesn’t have TMI. Despite voting there, he posts this when the EVO lynch gains traction. If you’re a wolf… why? Why bother? You’re getting a mislynch off, why are you trying to stop it when your partner is one of the alternatives? I know wolves make these comments too, but this one also looks weird progression-wise (invisibly changing his mind). I think that if Light were a wolf, his self-awareness wouldn’t allow him to write something like this for that reason. He would know that it looks odd in his progression, so he would probably just accept the EVO vote/lynch.
And they go back on it. I think the mindset behind this post is “I know I’ve just said that EVO was gaining traction too quickly, but I do have reasons for staying there… yeah, I am going to stay.” I don’t think a person with TMI posts this either. It’s like they are trying to justify keeping their vote on a wagon they don’t really believe in based on their previous post… like they are trying to convince themselves more than anyone else. You can claim that I’m reading too much into this, but his progression goes from “I’m gonna sheep Alice” to “wait this is gaining traction too quickly” to “actually, I have my own reasons why I’m voting there, I’m gonna stay.” I don’t think a wolf at Oblight’s level fakes this entire thing. It’s more likely he genuinely went through those stages, and they actually make sense from a V perspective.
He actually has a decent explanation for staying on EVO here. It’s not a good explanation, because he prefers to lynch a low poster over a higher poster and actively wolfier player, but it’s there.
Yeah, all of this combined is a LOT of theater surrounding his vote on EVO. I don’t think he would be able to fake all this. I don’t think Oblight would even bother to do this as scum.
There is a ton of deliberation over this vote. More than most other voters, heck, ALL of the EVO voters had. Maybe except Alice. And yes, I would continue saying that he wouldn’t fake this…
…And I will continue to say that, despite him voting EVO in the end. This post feels like he’s undermining his own progression. What he says here is simply not true. He’s undermining his own progression by saying that he only hopped off because he didn’t want a quicklynch. A wolf doesn’t make their position worse on purpose like this. He was deliberating over EVO for a long time, voted him, unvoted him, first sheeped Alice, then didn’t want to for some time… and here he says that he only had one reason for unvoting? And if he’s a wolf, he’s also aware that EVO will flip V, meaning that his vote looks really bad.
Once again, I will say that a person with TMI never posts something like this as their final vote of the day. It’s actively making his position worse, it contradicts his previous progression, it’s like he decided to throw away everything he accomplished as a wolf. Which means it probably came from a villager. Because a villager wouldn’t care about his position here. He’d just be posting what he feels. And that’s what Oblight’s posts read to me as.
So, in conclusion:
Apprentice looks super towny for his early push on Seth. He pushed on Seth way before there was any need to bus a partner.
An_Gorta looks REALLY BAD. I would actually want to shoot the slot right now if I could.
I think Oblight is highly towny based on his handling of EVO and his wack progression.
Sulit was somewhat towny. Not as towny as Oblight.
Chloe is a potential busser, especially since wolf neighborizers exist, but I don’t want to push this read too much until we actually have to hunt for deepwolves. I will say that her gambit is >>> rand town, which is another reason why I don’t really want any harm to come to her for now. Her self-preservation is justifiable too.
Kill an_gorta always unless he suddenly becomes super towny.
Don’t kill Apprentice until later in the game, if ever.
Same with Oblight.
Sulit is a maybe.
Re-evaluate Chloe if she lives too long.
The fact that his tone is disjointed, his content is weak and is dependent hugely on listing rather than unique thoughts, he’s quick to defend himself and others agressively, but has not attacked once this game, and most of all, he isn’t arguing my points, but rather is disagreeing with basic mash reading principles.
Do you have a potential explanation for why Centuries didn’t vote to save his partner from the rand? Assuming he’s a wolf.
lmao i saw u typing for like the last hour and thought u just left ur screen open or something
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Either it was a misplay or he thought that VCA would out him. I’m leaning towards the latter.
But I am 90% sure he’s a wolf. Look, I normally rely on my KP to deal with reads like this, but can you please trust me for once and get him killed?
he would 100% fuck up his progression.
going all “Evo good get mode” but then voting EVO? that’s outted wolf territory.
However the fact that he was around EoD but didn’t vote the CW to what he thought was a bad wagon is a little eh
the problem with centuries is that all the potential reasons to think him v are incremental rather than consistent, and not in a way that makes Occam’s Razor applicable- but if you look at his whole play, it’s weak and disjointed as hell, and the incremental reasons fall apart.
/vote Centuries
like, his main defense is a list
that’s it
he feels like he’s ticking boxes, never consistently latching on to anything, rather than dynamically trying to win the game
i would provide evidence but quite frankly his demeanour pisses me off far too much for me to want to look at his ISO again, but quotespam of the kind that an ISO of him would require is pointless for this read
yes but apprentice supposedly confirms them
they have claimed vantage though
I agree
p sure Cent said something like that too
and Arete agreed on Cent’s perspective
I personally think
this clears em more
I liked what he’s been saying and EVO has agreed
I kinda think this is outta left wing(note that this isn not me saying its completely impossible and because I didn’t see it coming nobody can push them), pushing Cent, I thought he was generally TL’d and wasn’t in 90% of shotlists
I don’t think this is necessarily scummy(coming from the view of the person he was defending I know its not him and a scumbud)
I should probably review his ISO again, see if I reach the same conclusion. Off of what I remember I liked em, but if he’s going to turn out to be a major wagon, I should review it
marshal said that nobody gets blame if cheese flips town
also I was literally being prodded to do it
lastly my second post of the day is me saying to not ITA cheese
in fact his unvote at EoD was the deciding factor that got EVO lynched.
like, he talks about how he hard defended EVO but then also unvoted mode when the wagons were really fucking close
im with ici here
this can die
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god dammit
classic ici
spotting a wolf and then missing the really obviously wolfy thing about them
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