At this point we know that Kiro is a wolf, so when you look at Kiro’s interactions you will find that he talked about/interacted with nearly everyone except Arctic. Like I am starting to think that Arctic has more experience than they let on originally. If you read Arctics d1 it’s full of casting shade and doubt on quite a few people and then dropping that shade entirely when it looks like they won’t be lynched.
d1 shade and doubt
(this here reminds me of TMI and anting to look productive)
Arctic:
so now one of three things happens next, right?
you’re going to detract your vote from silviu simply because appel did, indicating that you only voted him in the first place to get a mislynch because you are scum
you’re going to retract your vote and completely change your train of thought (with little explanation) - indicating to me again that you are scum
you leave your vote on silviu because you are town and your read on him was genuine
i guess if i really thought you were town and you didn’t do 3, you would wait for silviu to prove himself to you further but it seems you already chose option 2
Arctic:
the main issue for me is that initially you said you were sus of silviu for exposing power roles, but after appel revealed their facade you then changed your perspective to silviu trying to determine which faction has the power role
your train of thought makes no sense from a town perspective and you were both very quick to hop on the train and then hop off it
Arctic:
@Appelsiini
if you aren’t using your fake push on silviu to expose people who hopped on the train irrationally (like i am doing now), then may i ask what was the actual purpose of this? if you read silviu as town and then didn’t plan to gain any other insight into how people responded, then what was the point? all you seem to have accomplished was place a lot of unnecessary stress on silviu
Arctic:
you are changing your level of sus on silviu due to the pressure i am putting on you, really?
you have not had a single ounce of consistency in any of your thought processes as well as the level of sus you have and frankly your train of thought is all over the place
/vote WindwardAway
Arctic:
@Appelsiini
i still need to go over your reasoning for doing the RT
you sus min more than windward for hopping on the train because min didn’t vote and was more passive than windward? in my opinion that suggests min was more open to listening before jumping on the train whereas windward spared no time
can you please elaborate on what info you actually got
i would say it would be too obvious for a scum to jump on the train as quick as windward did, but since she’s new i think she could have still made that mistake
Arctic:
the way i see it is that both of them ultimately had the same goal but chose different methods
min was passive from the get-go on the push on silviu but still hopped on the train, so whichever way it went he would gain credibility
windward hopped on the train fairly aggressively with a vote but once the push stopped she changed her perspective for the most part almost like they were trying to slither out of the bad situation they had been put in as a scum
ultimately both of them clearly intended on hopping on the train and following whatever the majority was doing
Arctic:
but one final thought: even if you weren’t scum wha use would it be to keep people around who simply hop on pushes? say if a scum were to try for a mislynch -from this event you would be the first person they attempt to convince, and they would have a pretty good chance of doing so, which could cost us the game if it were to work. this is a liability
Arctic:
@Appelsiini
you keep saying that windward’s behaviour in quickly jumping off the train is NAI because it’s something town and scum would do
i don’t understand why town, or competent town rather, would do this? town would want to make their own judgements without being influenced by others and joining the push too early. the fact that you sus min for this more than windward worries me
Arctic:
she has demonstrated that she is either scum or will be easily influenced by scum later in the game resulting in a mislynch
either way we don’t need it
but i am still waiting for appel’s response and windward’s defence
On d2 their opening post was weird to say the least
Like this response to Silviu dying feels forced as hell
Arctic:
windward claimed non-VT but anyone can do that
right now after gorta windward is still my highest scumread. i would like her to actually claim, or maybe day 3 since i think it’s very likely gorta is going to be lynched today
At this point Arctic pushes the most sus people at the time (likely hoping to get a mislynch)
This reaction to Min being killed at night seems like the perfect transition to get people to focus on the PRs and me (the bottom of Min’s readlist)
Wind brought up that Arctic pushing Kiro for several days proves his innocence, but here’s the deal. If you look at this he puts sus on the people endgaming and one of those 3 is the actual wolf. All he would have to do to win from here is hard bus Kiro (I will show how he does that) and push on the most sus out of me and worse (what he’s doing now)
hard bussing Kiro
He also instigates a PR conflict hoping to get one if not both of the PRs out via lynching
Arctic:
i honestly don’t know what to think about kiro
he seems to have this innocence about him that i can’t really explain but anyone could just as easily do this as mafia
like the way he seems genuinely worried about dying
Arctic:
and since you are willing to vote appel, that leaves the possible scum options for me as
appel and kiro (or cloned?)
i just realised kiro appeared in all 3 of these lmao
but equally kiro could be the real PR and cloned could be the mafia PR
so i’m pretty sure out of gorta and appel there is a scum, and out of kiro and cloned there is a scum
Arctic:
definitely not kiro and cloned
what i meant is that kiro and cloned are interchangeable here
basically out of appel and gorta there is a scum
the only reason i don’t think you are scum atm is because the pairings don’t make much sense with you
Arctic:
oh boy
Arctic:
i actually think it’s much more likely we kill kiro here than gorta
kiro is a third town PR claim which at this point is a big no-no
they also didn’t follow the simple instruction of going on cloned. so off the bat that’s my instinct of where this is going
i’ll have my readlist out tomorrow, tonight is unlikely
Arctic:
since if we are assuming gorta and YBW aren’t together
that means from my POV it can only be
gorta and kiro
kiro is in both lol
He also instigates the whole PR conflict and actually pushes to lynch both at some point.
Arctic instigating the PR conflict
Arctic:
so doesn’t this mean one of you has to be scum (almost certainly, anyway)?
you confirm he visited you, so he is confirmed PR
so isn’t the most probably result here that you are mafia tracker PR?
Arctic:
if we knew there was no framer, we could just 1 for 1 windward and cloned
it’s 5v2 atm, so if we get it right it would be 5v1 then 4v1 after nightkill (by day 3)
if we got it wrong, it would be 4v2, then 3v2 after nightkill (by day 3), then we kill the actual scum and it’s 2v1 by day 4
but this is definitely not ideal and we can’t completely disregard the possibility of there being a framer
Arctic:
it’s looking a lot more like just 1, not 0
that’s not the point of why i sent that. i know his results aren’t framed, the point is that you aren’t confirmed cop because of a framer existing, you could still be the framer since framer can exist without cop
Arctic:
even if go for one of the other 5 today, we are still going to go for you 2 at some point (basically the day after)
i don’t see a point in delaying the inevitable
when there is a confliction between the 2 PRs, having them around doesn’t really do much for us
Arctic:
yeah like gorta said, as long as both of you are alive any information you provide is useless
Arctic:
and the main concern of this entire thing for me~
both of you have hardly pushed each other at all, like, literally not at all
you two seem too content with accepting that one of you was just framed rather than the other being scum
what if you are both scum doing a 500 iq play and trying to get us to go for the other 5 who are actually all town, in this case it would only require that one of you is a PR and the actual town PR hasn’t outted yet
Arctic:
I can see what you mean - if it’s impossible for both of you to be scum then that means out of the other 5 there is either 1-2 scum depending whether one or both of you are town
however, it’s much more likely that there is 1 scum out of you and we choose them correctly than it is we choose the 1/5 correctly, even though it is almost guaranteed that there is a wolf out of the other 5
Arctic:
so windward, if cloned is mafia you think the other is YBW, right?
if cloned isn’t mafia, which combinations of mafia out of the other 5 make the most sense to you?
Arctic:
people need to not disregard the possibility of cloned being a mafia PR
anyway the main thing i picked up on from reading all this
if gorta was scum and knew cloned was doing an RT on windward, why would he push for a vote between those two if he knew neither was going to be lynched once clone came clean? it would make more sense for the mafia to be more reserved in that situation so as not to look suspicious once clone outted it was fake
unless, however, there really is a framer who was on windward and the mafia thought cloned would check them but it turned out cloned was protective. this would mean that mafia would likely push for a vote between these two
however this still doesn’t make sense with gorta being mafia, because as windward said he thought cloned was protective, so why would he frame windward instead of cloned?
Arctic:
i doubt you are mafia unless there’s another investigative PR claim. if there is then there’s no reason you can’t be mafia tracker. i remember you saying mafia tracker would be useless in this setup, but that’s not true - it can still find protective PRs before they out
as for cloned, atm i still think he could be scum especially with another PR protective claim (kiro) although i think it’s more likely that kiro, or neither of them are scum
then again what is the likelihood that we have 2 protective PRs?
I think the most interesting thing to come out of that PR conflict was when Arctic encouraged Kiro to come out and “claim” , even going so far as to saying that he would be fine killing both Cloned and Wind if there was a third PR claim.
Arctic hedging/waddling on me vs Appel
Arctic:
but in all seriousness i don’t know what to think about gorta
everything appel points out about the change of vote to silviu despite silviu being his highest townread is correct
i can’t tell if he was just a stupid town (like me hA)
Arctic:
if gorta was scum and knew cloned was doing an RT on windward, why would he push for a vote between those two if he knew neither was going to be lynched once clone came clean? it would make more sense for the mafia to be more reserved in that situation so as not to look suspicious once clone outted it was fake
unless, however, there really is a framer who was on windward and the mafia thought cloned would check them but it turned out cloned was protective. this would mean that mafia would likely push for a vote between these two
however this still doesn’t make sense with gorta being mafia, because as windward said he thought cloned was protective, so why would he frame windward instead of cloned?
from this either way it doesn’t make sense for gorta to be scum
Arctic:
i honestly don’t know what to think about kiro
he seems to have this innocence about him that i can’t really explain but anyone could just as easily do this as mafia
like the way he seems genuinely worried about dying
Arctic:
i’ve read into this plan of yours and can get behind it mostly
however, what would you suggest that we do with today’s lynch? since you don’t want it to be any of you 3? that leaves me, appel, ybw and gorta
Arctic:
i have to say i kinda agree with this
however we did say that this may be because min’s reads were on-point with who is actually mafia
Arctic:
and since you are willing to vote appel, that leaves the possible scum options for me as
appel and kiro (or cloned?)
i just realised kiro appeared in all 3 of these lmao
but equally kiro could be the real PR and cloned could be the mafia PR
so i’m pretty sure out of gorta and appel there is a scum, and out of kiro and cloned there is a scum
Arctic:
definitely not kiro and cloned
what i meant is that kiro and cloned are interchangeable here
basically out of appel and gorta there is a scum
the only reason i don’t think you are scum atm is because the pairings don’t make much sense with you
Arctic:
Appel’s read on you has a lot of evidence and logic behind it. literally everything she says with quotes makes almost complete sense and i can’t help but be compelled by her argument on why you are scum
you on the other hand seem more like you’re desperate and grasping at straws rather than sounding logical. most of your comments are in short and don’t have much elaboration
like these spam posts seem a bit desperate
Arctic:
The only reason I am not 100% happy to kill gorta rn is because as many of us have pointed out the scum team wouldn’t really make sense
Also, say out of gorta and appel we think there is a scum, who is the second?
I honestly think YBW is mafia at this point
what does everyone else think about YBW
Arctic:
i just don’t know what to do
but then i also don’t want to lead a mislynch on ybw and screw us over
and tracker can’t really confirm everyone since the mafia PR doesn’t have to be shown as killing
Arctic:
cloned is the only person i can see being mafia with gorta
windward also isn’t mafia assuming we have at least 1 town investigative since no one has cc’ed
Arctic:
appel, you really aren’t making yourself look good right now
your entire push has fallen off a cliff from one of the strongest to one of the weakest
i think you realised that gorta wasn’t going to be killed because he has no likely teammates
Arctic:
what would be your thoughts on killing YBW right now?
at the moment i don’t really want to kill YBW
the worst person to mislynch would be YBW because if he flips town it tells us basically nothing
however, if appel flipped town then i would definitely start suspecting gorta again
not that i am saying YBW is town, he probably isn’t, but in the case that he is then we learn nothing
Arctic:
i feel like if appel was really a wolf she would have kept up her push on gorta
i legit can’t tell anymore
Arctic:
regardless of whether she’s town or mafia giving up like that was a really bad play and may cost us the game if she’s town
if the only thing stopping gorta being mafia is due to a scumteam not making sense, then we need to consider the possibility of some distancing going on, especially if appel flips town
Arctic:
something just doesn’t feel right about this
appel’s argument has been much stronger than gorta’s and i just feel guilty that the reason we are trusting gorta over her is because ‘it doesn’t make sense for gorta to be scum with anyone’
i already said this but why would appel just give up like that if she were mafia, it would seem like a very easy mislynch opportunity to continue pushing and get gorta killed
plus if she were mafia i doubt she would have randomly accused me and YBW, that just seems like a death sentence
unfortunately i have nothing better to suggest
Arctic:
i’m staying with my opinion that appel had a stronger argument because she was actually pushing gorta for acting anti-town
gorta’s push mainly involves countering appel’s push on him and from stuff on other games which most of us here can’t really get behind, rather than actually pushing appel because he had a scumread
Arctic:
these quotes are both from appel’s scum game in corrupt votes
Arete ily but
If you’re not a wolf
this seems really similar to that post appel made saying how she would scream at gorta after the game if he were town, and she was scum here
Going by math, if Gorta is scum here, we still have a chance if both me and Cloned vote Gorta or you. And at this point, I think I’m comfortable going with you.
Screw it, I want you all to go sleep. It’s 1AM, nerds.
/vote Arete @Zone_Q11 @CRichard564
the abruptness of this post seems like the abruptness that appel just used now in her last post
If you go back and look at the whole thing with me and Appel he acts like he suspects the one most likely to get lynched at that time and even clears me completely (only to push me again today).
He even says that he doesn’t understand why everyone thinks me/Kiro are w/w, which was when he thought people would be willing to vote up Worse next.
pushing Worse
Arctic:
Most people have had you on the bottom of their readlist for understandable reasons
You were very quick to switch from gorta to appel and most of the time you haven’t showed any independence and just voted with everyone else
As Wind said, your first independent act was voting on appel (who was town…) which is a bit concerning at this point in the game
He spends the whole day pushing worse, but when the support for a Worse lynch isn’t there he moves on to the other sus person (me). I am always a designated mislynch here and he anticipates that the mob will follow his words.
Arctic's case on me
Arctic:
YBW has been pushing on both gorta and kiro the entire game - he literally can’t be scum with either of them unless it was a 500 IQ distancing push on kiro because he knew that he could get away with throwing sus on kiro without him actualy getting lynched, which until now would be correct. But I really doubt this from a new player
Arctic:
the only thing i really need to do now is iso gorta
windward is basically confirmed town since i doubt we would have 1 town PR and no investigative
Arctic:
the issue is YBW is new, so i highly doubt he would do something like this with the confidence he has been
plus, what is the likelihood the mods chose 2 new players to be mafia
Arctic:
well you see that’s the issue
i don’t think YBW has been very ‘good’ (sorry)
but i am lucky to know it’s very unlikely to be him because of the way he’s spoken about you and kiro
Arctic:
well you see that’s the issue
after we kill kiro today and then you kill wind at night i’m gonna have to defend myself
i was wondering why you didn’t start pushing me yet since you are going to have to at some point lol
Arctic:
since YBW has been very slippery i think gorta will find it easier to convince him
plus he needs to kill you anyway because you will probably track him
alternatively he’ll kill no one but i doubt that for the same reason
He does everything he can to shade me. There is a reason he focused more on getting Appel out first. Appel would have an easier time here and would likely be able to out argue Arctic, but the most notible quotes are there
Arctic:
well you see that’s the issue
after we kill kiro today and then you kill wind at night i’m gonna have to defend myself
i was wondering why you didn’t start pushing me yet since you are going to have to at some point lol
He starts to project his own likely plan onto me here to make me look worse than I already look. He also does something similar to wind as well, except he uses that moment to frame me.
Arctic:
since YBW has been very slippery i think gorta will find it easier to convince him
plus he needs to kill you anyway because you will probably track him
alternatively he’ll kill no one but i doubt that for the same reason
again he tries to project his own plans on me
TL;DR: if you read his ISO you can see it’s full of shade, projection, planned actions, flip flopping, and agenda
