[SFM] Va-11 Hall-A Greatest Idea Game Thread - Day 7 (5/19) - Mafia Wins

[osieorb18]

Oh, wait. You’re right.

I messed up the 1 town role case.

[eevee]

I mean, I calculated it before, and while first difference by up to 1% is explained by repeats / no repeats / rouding up, the 2nd part difference has to do something with messing up calculations by one of us.

[osieorb18]

That said, it is still true that one person could get:

Town Roleblocker
Town Roleblocker
Town Roleblocker

[osieorb18]

@eevee

I mean, I calculated it before, and while first difference by up to 1% is explained by repeats / no repeats / rouding up, the 2nd part difference has to do something with messing up calculations by one of us.

That was on my end.

[Aelin]

I never intended to insult anyone personally. I used “fucktards” to refer to, in general, everyone who was arguing. I apologize to anyone who took offense to it.

[eevee]

Sure, but even if repeats are allowed, it doesn’t change result by much.

There is approximate 1/60th chance of it affecting one of 57 rolls.
This really doesn’t change that much.

[Aelin]

@osieorb18

Light (Anna Grahem) - Behaviour has been a mix of townie and very much not townie. Greater than rand town, I guess, but not very helpful.

Tell me more?

[osieorb18]

@eevee

Sure, but even if repeats are allowed, it doesn’t change result by much.

There is approximate 1/60th chance of it affecting one of 57 rolls.
This really doesn’t change that much.

Town Discard -> 42% town, 58% scum.
Scum Discard -> 76% town, 24% scum.

[eevee]

How many town roles you used in tihs calculation?

85?

[Aelin]

Okay… so tell me why it isn’t just
(84/146)
(84/146)
(84/146)? Realistically, discards shouldn’t matter because they have zero effect on the other ones, no?

[eevee]

Becouse that’s not how probability works.

[eevee]

I mean, read about conditional probabilty.

Here you need to count chance of someone being mafia or town, considering a certain discard occurred and using weights of certain discard being possible to begin with.

[Aelin]

I still don’t understand why the discarded town percentages aren’t reversed

[eevee]

@eevee

19,4% chance of 3 town rolecards
42,8% chance of 2 town rolecards
30,6% chance of 1 town rolecard
7,2% chance of 0 town rolecards

So:

If person discarded town:
43.9% chance person is town
56.1% chance person is scum

If person discarded scum:
72% chance person is town
28% person is scum

Here was mine @osieorb18

Considering we used different repeats/no repeats formulas and you rounding stuff bit more than me… it should be valid.

[osieorb18]

@Aelin

@osieorb18

Light (Anna Grahem) - Behaviour has been a mix of townie and very much not townie. Greater than rand town, I guess, but not very helpful.

Tell me more?

I liked your recent posts, and I like your mech spec and some of your mid-to-later reads.

I have a degree of self-recognized personal bias against some of the memeing and edginess, and I felt like there was an element of throwing out easy statements that puts me on edge a bit.

As far as a gutread of you goes, that’s kinda where I’m at. Sorta a “my mind is telling me you’re town, my gut says wait a second before solidly slotting you into there.”

[Aelin]

Alright, thanks for the expansion
In case you want meta, all of my games are listed on my profile

[osieorb18]

Given how anti-town this setup is, I’m not convinced that it’s wise to adjust play for the (relatively low) possibility that ANY non-town roles are not anti-town.

[Aelin]

This is very true
I’m just very weak to AtE

[osieorb18]

@osieorb18

Given how anti-town this setup is, I’m not convinced that it’s wise to adjust play for the (relatively low) possibility that ANY non-town roles are not anti-town.

Like, there’s 3 town-friendly non-town roles, realistically. You could make an argument for considering that number to be up to 4. Out of 63.

[min]

I did not know that many people claimed, eeeeyikes (thanks for the list osie, that’s very helpful)

I wanna wait and see how At responds before Unvoting