SFoL 38 - Game Over - Even death may die

Frostwolf103 · October 13, 2018, 1:52pm

And if Bazinga said no?

Icibalus · October 13, 2018, 1:53pm

It’s probably 3v7 rn, but we’ve got sam nailed making it effectively 2v7. (Maxi’s factored in because he does affect LyLo calculations)

In other words, assuming that we lynch every day and Squid uses their remaining two executes immediately, the worst case scenario is;

Day 4 - We lynch Luxy/Insanity and they flip villa. 3v6
Night 4 - Sam dies of bleeding. Somebody else dies of NK kill. Poison executes the other. Flips are Wolf/Villa/Villa (very unliekly, I know). 2v4
Day 5 - We lynch unidentified wolfy personm, and they flip villa. 2v3
Night 5 - Frost dies of bleeding, Squid executes somebody else (probably Maxi at that point), NK kill. Flps are Villa/Neut//Villa. 1v1, wolves almost certainly win unless i’m the last man standing.

This is all ignoring a bunch of mechanical influences we have, considering that the overall scenario is literally almost impossible.

In other words, if we lynch correctly today our win is almost gaurenteed.

Icibalus · October 13, 2018, 1:54pm

We’re assuming that Squid dosen’t have a brain and always executes incorrectly, here, which is why her staying alive and killing loads and loads of incorrect people is consideed worst-case

Frostwolf103 · October 13, 2018, 1:54pm

Unless Alice want US to believe it’s me, Luxy, Insanity but all flips BD - then you know who might the NK be?

Icibalus · October 13, 2018, 1:55pm

There is literally no universe where that is the case, I’m afraid Frost.

Alice · October 13, 2018, 1:55pm

Ici and Maxi bled, so they’re out. Squid and Baz are unique and guaranteed. It’s basically either you/Insanity/Luxy/Poke.

Frostwolf103 · October 13, 2018, 1:56pm

We lynched Livicus so he can flip NK but we got Dreamer instead.

@Alice It’s also time who voted you for king and how many.

Icibalus · October 13, 2018, 1:56pm

Yare Yare Daze it dosen’t matter what they flip so long as they flip wolf

Insanity · October 13, 2018, 1:57pm

If we got a Nameless then the worst case scenario is that Alice has already turned into Eldritch King.

But there is no Nameless, so…yeah.

Frostwolf103 · October 13, 2018, 1:58pm

Unless Sam claims Priest so.

Alice · October 13, 2018, 1:58pm

@PoisonedSquid

What did Sam claim in jail n1?

Icibalus · October 13, 2018, 1:58pm

You do realise that Sam is never going to claim Priest now that you’ve outed that, right?

Not all info is good for the Blue Dragon.

Alice · October 13, 2018, 1:59pm

n2 I mean.

@Icibalus

Sam did claim to Squid already.

Icibalus · October 13, 2018, 1:59pm

Oh good, but it’s always important to cover all our bases. If we miss this then we’re screwed.

Frostwolf103 · October 13, 2018, 2:02pm

But only Squid knows what he claimed at the moment.

Also have 8 deaths remaining until game over (assuming Sam did not claim Priest)

Duh.

I just look over, if the game does not end at Day 6 then it takes one mislynch to end it.

Frostwolf103 · October 13, 2018, 2:11pm

@Icibalus So no Reaper and Possessor can survive bleeding yes?

Icibalus · October 13, 2018, 2:11pm

Why are you asking this question?

Alice · October 13, 2018, 2:12pm

Reaper can, but I don’t think the other NKs can.

Frostwolf103 · October 13, 2018, 2:17pm

You know, these damn hunters just can’t think because derp derp let’s bleed everyone derp derp.

So why can’t Poke and Alice included in NK suspect list?

Icibalus · October 13, 2018, 2:18pm

sigh

Because Alice is lock villa from their interactions and Poke is derpcleared.